Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Ali1977]

I think we know it’ll come to nothing, but the icon has a slightly stronger block to the NE at T120 compared to the 12z , with the Atlantic slightly better configured to slide. 

[northwestsnow]

All eyes on the MJO / strat its pretty clear now  something dramatic is needed to break this Euro High / flat Atlantic sector.

[Froze were the Days]

See the ever present limpet short wave low close to the Norwegian coast is becoming a feature too when ever we get some sort of Scandi High, interesting also how the isobars seem to follow the contour of the coast rather than go westwards (probably due to the large difference in temps from land to sea) as per 222z on tonight's ECM op run...thoroughly depressing.

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

Exactly, the north of Scotland and the Highlands can have a decent winter, while it's pants for the rest of the UK!!

The difference is usually not this stark there was a 20C difference last night with SE England as clocks struck 12.

Edited January 1, 2023 by Daniel*

[keithlucky]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I think we know it’ll come to nothing, but the icon has a slightly stronger block to the NE at T120 compared to the 12z , with the Atlantic slightly better configured to slide. 

Nice to see someone talk about model outputs ,there's 100's of global warming websites ,this is model output thread.

[Daniel*]

EPS mean at day 10 the ECM op seems on the mild end see right.

[zubzero]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I think we know it’ll come to nothing, but the icon has a slightly stronger block to the NE at T120 compared to the 12z , with the Atlantic slightly better configured to slide. 

You never know? If a similar pattern change like that does occur at some point. It's possible that it may crop up at shortish range. 

Worth keeping an 👁 on. 

[johncam]

39 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s wintry cold at present in north of Scotland. Snow covered Altnaharra -8.8C at 8pm ob never climbed above 0C today. Different world for most of U.K. 

 

Yep you are right Daniel but I am in the central belt the Highlands are a different world from here 

 

 

 

[Ali1977]

31 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I think we know it’ll come to nothing, but the icon has a slightly stronger block to the NE at T120 compared to the 12z , with the Atlantic slightly better configured to slide. 

Looking at the Western European view you can see a considerable step closer to something from the east at T132 on the GFS’s latest run - the Atlantic is way too strong though .

[Ali1977]

Day 6 and 8, the Atlantic is struggling to move east against the block 

 

The cold is not moving from Scandy this run neither. 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Ali1977

[Eagle Eye]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

 the Atlantic is way too strong though .

 

It's a shame that we have to hear this so often because it's true so often. If only the Atlantic wasn't such of a dominant force...

[Penrith Snow]

2 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

The Euro high is now a virtual permanent feature due to the expansion of the sub tropical high pressure belt due to global warming.

Only the most severe of teleconnections can overide it.

 

That in a nutshell is the problem and will be for a long time to come  

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

It's a shame that we have to hear this so often because it's true so often. If only the Atlantic wasn't such of a dominant force...

To be fair the Atlantic is struggling this run, things look a little more interesting to our north I’d say. 

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 6 and 8, the Atlantic is struggling to move east against the block 

 

If only it was at least cold enough for some battle ground snow.

[Ali1977]

Quite some difference at day 9 to our NE, compared to earlier , heights now rising too  Can it suck up European heights allowing the easterlies around Moscow to divert our way - I very much doubt it, but it’s a different run either way!! 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Ali1977

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Quite some difference at day 9 to our NE, compared to earlier , heights now rising too

Moving towards the 0z ECM with the high, does ECM still have it at 120, cause people seemed disappointed till later.

Perhaps this isn't decided yet.

[zubzero]

43 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

EPS mean at day 10 the ECM op seems on the mild end see right.

That's hight anomaly not temperature??

[Rain All Night]

3 minutes ago, zubzero said:

That's hight anomaly not temperature??

I guess in this instance you can infer the one from the other

[CoventryWeather]

Quick look at the GEFS, and P3 looks interesting with greater heights in the Scandi region. 

I still feel models are underestimating heights and a weak easterly could easily happen at some point. 

[zubzero]

2 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

I guess in this instance you can infer the one from the other

.? It's about average if not slightly below compared to the ens

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=274&y=54&run=12&type=2&runpara=0&mode=1

 

 

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, RainAllNight said:

I guess in this instance you can infer the one from the other

Not always, you can be cold under a high in winter. The south one has winds mixing in from warm areas, so temps will rise, not so sure about the one near scandi though, that may well be very cold.

[bluearmy]

Again we see an Arctic high around the pole which is pushing the Siberian frigid air towards Scandinavia - if only we can find a suitable pattern in the Atlantic sector we really would be on the cusp of something ridiculous 

[Tim Bland]

12z Vs 18z ..couldn’t be more different, finger in air time

[Rain All Night]

19 minutes ago, zubzero said:

.? It's about average if not slightly below compared to the ens

https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/ecmwfens_display.php?x=274&y=54&run=12&type=2&runpara=0&mode=1

 

 

As your graph shows, it goes milder than the mean on day 10, which is the day Daniel highlighted.

Edited January 1, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Duane S.]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Again we see an Arctic high around the pole which is pushing the Siberian frigid air towards Scandinavia - if only we can find a suitable pattern in the Atlantic sector we really would be on the cusp of something ridiculous 

I couldn’t agree more. From a fairly meh chart on the face it, in fact a bit of underestimated upstream amplification could release that lot towards us Jan’87 style! Not likely of course but interesting nonetheless.