Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[blizzard81]

Just had a quick glance at the Exeter monthly update. A definite improvement. The word 'mild' now doesn't appear at all in the medium and long term forecast, nor does 'above average'. Normal temps and colder both get mentioned. 

[Gowon]

The JMA had the purple blob split a couple of nights ago and then dropped it for the other models to pick it up - why is that?

It did the same before this cold spell.

[andymusic]

Nice looking chart for the beginning of Feb from the ECM

[tight isobar]

Similar frames.. and non GFS inclusion!!.. JMA/GEM/ ECM.. the context of a mother lobe Canada nw- sucker pad... doesn’t put a nail in the uk cold spilling..”far from “- when you also have a Siberian- Eurasia limpit lobe!.. and to boot a Pacific ridge ( partial or not so)- And an, arctic swindled anomaly!!.. that all aside.. our by now modelled HP cell.. that given small tweaks.. could be a gaining player for exacting large lobe polar vortex!!!... there’s a lot on offer ‘Admittedly ‘- with some luck needed... but tell me something new for our shores ... it could be a hell of a lot worse... And at anytime soon be a hell of a lot better.... keeps watching!!! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Firstly to my eye perhaps an upgrade from the Met regarding the dreaded mild word. 

Secondly its been officially a Wstly QBO which does perhaps increase the chances of milder Conditions.. We now have them turning more Ely.... And guess what the word on the grapevine is that next Winter there likely to be true Estly!! 

Ya thinking what I'm thinking gang? Next Winter could be the true big one.. Sooner or later its got to land! 

This Winter ain't done yet and I still feel Feb and March can deliver... Stuff Spring... I don't wanna even here about it til mid April tbh. 

But one for the diaries regarding Estly QBO next Winter. 

Don't be confused folks.. Rejoice and take it all in..

@Allseasons-siI'm hanging on in there...bless you for asking mate.

Edited January 23, 2023 by MATT TATTOO

[Rob 79812010]

2 hours ago, jon_d1983 said:

End of December 95 was very cold in Glasgow when I stayed there, it was like -18/20C and I remember being asked to go and run the cars in the driveway to stop them from freezing too much. If I'm correct it was a lobe of high pressure than came down from the polar area over iceland into the uk? a very unusual set up which thawed as quickly as it cam leading to lots of burst pipes! 

Absolutely!!! Think it got to - 15 in Manc. 6 Jan 2010 was the coldest night I remember here, went down to -18. And we'd had a memorable snowfall the night before which I imagine was even better for you if you were in Scotland at the time!!

[Alexis]

46 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Not sure that fits with a +AO.

Something or someone is right somewhere lol.

Why? You can get a roaring polar northerly or northwesterly but still have a positive AO.

[feb1991blizzard]

oh dear  - ec46

Edited January 23, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Rain All Night]

The EPS mean at day 7 feels like abstract art for some reason.

[Penrith Snow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

oh dear  - ec46

For Gods sake say why then!

[Rain All Night]

7 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

For Gods sake say why then!

Edited January 23, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

oh dear  - ec46

Full on beast from the east set up mid feb/March ? 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

For Gods sake say why then!

the 500mb output is rubbish from start to finish apart from brief scandi high anomaly (not favourable for uk cold) and SSW signal gone apart from about 5 members around mid feb (incidentally, would tie in with my expectations but was hoping for a lot more than 5)

[legritter]

2 hours ago, Purga said:

Yes, with UKMO we'll end up with a flow as flat as a witches t*t.

 

Not all witches have flat .... take my x mother inlaw , charts today are improving for coldies and its great having very knowledgeable posters on the top weather forum  a big cheer for all of us and yes i still have the occasional sausage bap cheers . 

[feb1991blizzard]

on reflection  the aforementioned w3 not too bad wrt scandi but all too brief.

Edited January 23, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

on reflection  the aforementioned w3 not too bad wrt scandi but all too brief.

Is the following week not looking ok too? Maybe a slider type set up as Scandy heights try to hold  on? 
  

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Is the following week not looking ok too? Maybe a slider type set up as Scandy heights try to hold  on? 
  

screams battleground to me but would there be enough cold air and would the trough have too much influence.

[Singularity]

4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

I put forward the gem day 10 as the first ‘unexpected chart’ 

(and you have to be looking hemispherically for these developments) 

Interestingly it gets there via a deep cyclone running from NE of Japan to far-NE Russia, where it peaks & drives an anticyclonic wave break across the Pacific side of the Arctic.

More interestingly still, the ECM 12z has the same sequence of events.

Being beneath the stratospheric anticyclone, such a high would likely have some staying power, plus sufficient strength to have far-reaching consequences on mid-latitude weather patterns.

A wildcard, sure, but with origins at the 4-6 day lead times which is near enough to make it worth keeping an eye on.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Interestingly it gets there via a deep cyclone running from NE of Japan to far-NE Russia, where it peaks & drives an anticyclonic wave break across the Pacific side of the Arctic.

More interestingly still, the ECM 12z has the same sequence of events.

Being beneath the stratospheric anticyclone, such a high would likely have some staying power, plus sufficient strength to have far-reaching consequences on mid-latitude weather patterns.

A wildcard, sure, but with origins at the 4-6 day lead times which is near enough to make it worth keeping an eye on.

I take it you and bluearmy are talking about the ridging into the Arctic via the pacific.

[feb1991blizzard]

id start to get excited if it coincided with ridging from either scandi or even Greenland.

[Ali1977]

T186, it looks full of promise but I’m guessing it won’t work out that way. Can we now expect big changes due to strat warming I wonder

Poss day 9 northerly on this run though. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Ali1977

[Snowman.]

Better pacific ridging has dragged the PV lobe further south giving us a better amplitude on our high here

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

T186, it looks full of promise but I’m guessing it won’t work out that way. Can we now expect big changes due to strat warming I wonder

Poss day 9 northerly on this run though. 

Cocked and loaded. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What’s of interest to me is how cold we are, have been with fairly benign set ups…especially to recent years.  It has got really cold, coldest Jan night for donkeys down here from a fairly nothing set up.  And projected, there’s some punchy cold to come from the ‘useless’ northerly topplers.  Not what ‘some’ profess

 

 BFTP

[blizzard81]

Amazing how the pub run never seems to get brewers droop