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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Via the GEFS sets, 2M London temps stay a steady 5 or 6 degs going by the mean though plenty of scatter. What you do see entering into Feb is the precipitation signal, cold rain you would think but too far out to even mention precipitation (location).

 

graphe_ens4.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

Rabbits are bad news for coldies...

Could contain: Modern Art, Art, Outdoors, Graphics, Nature

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Rabbits are bad news for coldies...

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Not a good  chart at all.

Would suggest PM airflow is about the best we can hope for outlook wise,for a while possibly.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

...think the rabbit has morphed into some kind of Alien...

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...huge intense vortex...

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
13 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

I like the look of the 6z GFS, A PM flow of very cold unstable air filtering down off Greenland from the the N/W aided by a very strong Jet Stream over the UK. Gales/rain/snow and blizzards for the North and high ground if these charts are correct..

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, MapCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

Now I agree with this, not very cold for all, but some very interesting weather if this comes off. Not often you get a Blizzard from a WNW.

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

..how often do you see the gfs op and control in tune with the mean ?..for almost 12 days on the 6z...

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Not a good  chart at all.

Would suggest PM airflow is about the best we can hope for outlook wise,for a while possibly.

 

Just as well it's 9 days away 🙂

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Just model discussion please in here, Use the Winter moans/ramp/chat thread for general chat on winter so far. Thanks all 😊

Edit- Some posts have had to be hidden as they continued to send the thread off topic..

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Well.. I guess that concludes weeks of SSW hype based on nothing but a minority number of members which suggested the possibility. If we're being very honest, the chances of an SSW were always a lower probability despite what the hype & rhetoric suggested.

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Line Chart

I posted over a week ago suggesting that an SSW was a low probability and was shot down for it, "the dets lead the way in these situations", apparently.. in reality, modelling has done very well with this period of weakening, even back at the very start of this month they were seeing a reduction in u-wind strength which is when the SSW talk began to heat up. 

A brief dip below average is expected before a fairly quick recovery, a displacement event seems possible but based on current forecasts it doesn't look likely to bring us the goods. My idea of a colder/blocked mid February looks to be on somewhat shaky ground now too, albeit still time for that to turn around.

Edited by Met4Cast
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

I like the look of the 6z GFS, A PM flow of very cold unstable air filtering down off Greenland from the the N/W aided by a very strong Jet Stream over the UK. Gales/rain/snow and blizzards for the North and high ground if these charts are correct..

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, MapCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

2009 Had quite a few polar NW incursions with thunder snow,mostly on Sundays for some bizarre reason.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
3 hours ago, minus10 said:

...think the rabbit has morphed into some kind of Alien...

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...huge intense vortex...

What an odd chart for February! Still… there’d be a lot of cold air crossing the North Atlantic there so cold and windy rather than mild. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

I haven’t posted in here in a few days. I notice the +AO signal has been suppressed a bit in EPS perhaps signs modelling is getting a better grip on significant strat warming. With February I’d say the first week is unlikely to start notably cold, but I do think the month really is open… as we moved into January it seemed more bleaker to me. The clock is ticking now yes, but February has been one of most prone wintry weather patterns in recent years, I wonder whether 2023 can add to the tally. 

Could contain: Chart, Plot
 

Recent cold weather has also dropped SSTs further - quite chilly now. A pool of 6C SSTs developing far offshore in North Sea. Compared to earlier in winter where very anomalously mild.. very cold. Suggests cold air passing from E/NE will be less moderated so let’s hope we see that before it is too late. Anyone else feeling March could be cold?

C51063B3-EA3C-45E9-9E6F-AB40757BD990.thumb.gif.7a5ac6d0b75385061a6967ced7debc84.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
2 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

Well.. I guess that concludes weeks of SSW hype based on nothing but a minority number of members which suggested the possibility. If we're being very honest, the chances of an SSW were always a lower probability despite what the hype & rhetoric suggested.

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Line Chart

I posted over a week ago suggesting that an SSW was a low probability and was shot down for it, "the dets lead the way in these situations", apparently.. in reality, modelling has done very well with this period of weakening, even back at the very start of this month they were seeing a reduction in u-wind strength which is when the SSW talk began to heat up. 

A brief dip below average is expected before a fairly quick recovery, a displacement event seems possible but based on current forecasts it doesn't look likely to bring us the goods. My idea of a colder/blocked mid February looks to be on somewhat shaky ground now too, albeit still time for that to turn around.

Outlines an important point that such discussions regarding the stratosphere should be kept in the relevant thread, I really don't understand why this thread has become so tediously dominated by all things SSW

Talking of relevant thread this should be in the moans one but It really has ruined model discussions since 2018! 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

To illustrate why a cold spell like this one just departing cannot just appear as if by magic. I say this because some dont think the anomalies or ops picked up very well on this cold spell... and, after posting several EPS and NOAA charts people hoping for cold suggested that things can develop with short notice.

I beg to differ.

The left hand anomaly chart is the 8-14 dayer issued on the 8th, so covers the start of the cold spell which established on the 16th.  I believe this chart supports the cold we got, even IF the could spell lasted longer than expected.
The right hand chart is the current 8-14 dayer, as you can see, its nothing like the chart thast produced this cold spell. So yes, we may well get PM incursions, in a very mobile even stormy (note we have had no met office named storms this season) pattern, but i cannot see any route to a cold spell on these charts... of course, whether they are accurate or not is yet to be determined.

jan 8 8 14.gif

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