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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
4 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

I like the look of the 6z GFS, A PM flow of very cold unstable air filtering down off Greenland from the the N/W aided by a very strong Jet Stream over the UK. Gales/rain/snow and blizzards for the North and high ground if these charts are correct..

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, MapCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

I’d love to be in Iceland if that hits 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Silence speaks a thousand words. Aleutian High, up it goes.

Indeed- and credit for your notifications on this for some time 🤘.. although I’m still optimistic- via a uk created cold pool between the evolution!.. when the 12z have all completed- I’ll post data / output that has strong support for that scenario.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
3 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

Well.. I guess that concludes weeks of SSW hype based on nothing but a minority number of members which suggested the possibility. If we're being very honest, the chances of an SSW were always a lower probability despite what the hype & rhetoric suggested.

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Line Chart

I posted over a week ago suggesting that an SSW was a low probability and was shot down for it, "the dets lead the way in these situations", apparently.. in reality, modelling has done very well with this period of weakening, even back at the very start of this month they were seeing a reduction in u-wind strength which is when the SSW talk began to heat up. 

A brief dip below average is expected before a fairly quick recovery, a displacement event seems possible but based on current forecasts it doesn't look likely to bring us the goods. My idea of a colder/blocked mid February looks to be on somewhat shaky ground now too, albeit still time for that to turn around.

I think this is an excellent well balanced post / forecast without bias..very unusual. It also has support from the Met.  Seems like the trend is forma few PM shots, favouring the north east before the PV really gets its act together and flatterns the pattern...hopefully the high stays close enough to the south (as per 12z gfs) to save us from a run of storms which we've got away with so far. 

P.S  Dont worry about being shot down, it happens to everyone, the reason the more knowledgeable weather gurus dont post much in here.  

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

When we haven't had a reversal and and the season is over, then is the time for an exercise in back patting.

Who said anything about the rest of winter? I’m merely talking about the late Jan/early Feb SSW that has been hyped up beyond belief in recent weeks! Not that there’s any sign of an SSW beyond.

I’m still hopeful of a change to colder weather around mid-Feb, or at least to a more blocked pattern.

Edited by Met4Cast
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Who said anything about the rest of winter? I’m merely talking about the late Jan/early Feb SSW that has been hyped up beyond belief in recent weeks! Not that there’s any sign of an SSW beyond.

I’m still hopeful of a change to colder weather around mid-Feb, or at least to a more blocked pattern.

Looks ripe to me for an early final warning of the strat. It won’t take much to finish it off some time later in February.

We could be looking at cold snaps well into April…and the few times I’ve checked over the past week or so, the CFS has been showing potent cold spells well into spring.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Fully agree here. And The SSW straw- has distracted many , and taken the emphasis off- of more basic/ worthy prognosis!.. that believe it or not- has some real prospects..  if you care to look for them.

Didn`t want to say anything but it happens every single year. Maybe next winter the correct forum should be used. I haven`t the foggiest about it but if I was interested I would go to that forum.

Anyway, let`s just see how the standard models play out.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Who said anything about the rest of winter? I’m merely talking about the late Jan/early Feb SSW that has been hyped up beyond belief in recent weeks! Not that there’s any sign of an SSW beyond.

I’m still hopeful of a change to colder weather around mid-Feb, or at least to a more blocked pattern.

I agree some of the early attempts were always likely to be fizzlers, but the latest attempt was a bit more than that, i was never getting over excited, because of the type of warming, apart from a couple of GFS ops that showed a split, i admit i am a bit disappointed by the vortex recovery but its only likely going to be average at most, at this time of year, average doesn't preclude split attempt going into Feb. FWIW i always thought proper cold was unlikely in Jan anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
21 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Didn`t want to say anything but it happens every single year. Maybe next winter the correct forum should be used. I haven`t the foggiest about it but if I was interested I would go to that forum.

Anyway, let`s just see how the standard models play out.

The stratospheric charts are still model output, derived from the same runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex
  • Location: Coggeshall, Nr Colchester, Essex

The GFS mean for London is, pretty much, below average from 26th to the end. Not excessively cold but cold none the less.

 

Could contain: Plot, Chart

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
14 minutes ago, Gowon said:

One has to be intrigued with a chart like this 🤔

 

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Art, Hurricane, Storm

yep looks horribly cold for my location 😡

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
3 minutes ago, snowblind said:

The GFS mean for London is, pretty much, below average from 26th to the end. Not excessively cold but cold none the less.

 

Could contain: Plot, Chart

Worth checking the 2m temps, they’re broadly around average despite cooler temperatures at 850hPa. 

Could contain: Chart
 

Almost the inverse of what we have at the moment, i:e warmer 850hPas but cold surface conditions. 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
14 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Worth checking the 2m temps, they’re broadly around average despite cooler temperatures at 850hPa. 

Could contain: Chart
 

Almost the inverse of what we have at the moment, i:e warmer 850hPas but cold surface conditions. 

Temp is mostly around five or six, so same as here in Dover during this spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
42 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

Moreover, it has become increasingly clear to me over the years that it is just not sensible to look at what is happening in the strat in isolation to our weather down here.  The two are inextricably linked, and one cannot tell the winter evolution story in the northern hemisphere without reference to both, let alone try to predict it.  

I’ve said before that even the sudden warming (SSW) phenomenon, is part of a longer story that starts before it and has ramifications for weeks afterwards.  2018 was a classic example, which also, somewhat incidentally, delivered for the UK.  

There is a thread for discussions about the stratosphere alone, yes, which is fine for discussing long term thoughts and research, but there are times when warming events in the strat are important in the normal 10-15 days of the standard operational and ensembles model output.  And recent discussion has been one of those times, with a warming event which, while not in the end either qualifying as a technical SSW, or (it now seems) delivering anything in the way of cold prospects for the UK, is nonetheless a significant event which will continue to affect our weather in days to come.  To just dismiss (not saying either of the quoted posters were, to be clear, but others have) what is going on in the strat as not relevant to the discussion at such times is wrong, in my view.

Agree, its very difficult to move from thread to thread when they are linked, more so is that the Strat thread tends to be far more technical so there can be fear of diluting that thread when you only have a basic strat profile to post. A bit like when you spot something in the NWP which might back up, or go against the Mets forecast but can't discuss it here. Very frustrating.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM is running late so building up the excitement ! If only !

Meanwhile the JMA tries to develop a Scandi high at the end against a rampant PV .

The GEM is to be blunt atrocious for cold .

The GFS has a cold blip but then sinks without trace .

The UKMO skirts any cold into the North Sea day 5  into 6. 

The Arctic high does show its hand across the outputs so far and tries to push the jet further south but the PV from hell is no mood to relent .

We really need something to lift coldies spirits so we await the ECM with desperate hope ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

You get the feeling February is going to explode with weather.

Stormy and cold zonal looks favoured at times. I'd be surprised if the naming of storms doesn't kick off quite dramatically!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM is running late this evening...

MESSAGE-Run 12Z is late because network problems at ECMWF.

meanwhile the JMA ends well and just shows while we have a tpv to our NW it doesn't mean we won't get cold spells/snaps as long as the tpv is suficiently further to our NW,...not impossible...

JN264-21.thumb.gif.4917656797521b7cb45b48c6c1434b4b.gifJN264-7.thumb.gif.4fd4bf205551ab34dceeac12907c766d.gif

 

The JMA really trying to perform a Flash Gordon routine there .

You’d need that PV further nw and it would need to sharpen up to the west otherwise it would spill too much energy eastwards .

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