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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ECM is running late this evening...

MESSAGE-Run 12Z is late because network problems at ECMWF.

meanwhile the JMA ends well and just shows while we have a tpv to our NW it doesn't mean we won't get cold spells/snaps as long as the tpv is suficiently further to our NW,...not impossible...

JN264-21.thumb.gif.4917656797521b7cb45b48c6c1434b4b.gifJN264-7.thumb.gif.4fd4bf205551ab34dceeac12907c766d.gif

 

SCANDI HIGH ALERT! Oh yeah.... It's the JMA. Never mind lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Dont think there will be much arguing over whether uppers are cold enough for snow at the Canadian forums...   - 40 uppers!  😮

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Modern Art, Art

Edited by KTtom
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The JMA really trying to perform a Flash Gordon routine there .

You’d need that PV further nw and it would need to sharpen up to the west otherwise it would spill too much energy eastwards .

Yes that is correct,the jma sends the jet NE through Iceland creating a buckle in the jet ahead of it forcing the high to our NE creating a cutback of cold air underneath through the UK,it prob won't happen but i do hope that the ECM will show the same outcome around day ten.

JN264-102.thumb.gif.5c60ff4ec7aae7684d2d98442aa791a9.gif

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
typo
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Dont think there will be much arguing over whether uppers are cold enoughnat the Canadian forums...   - 40 uppers!  😮

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Modern Art, Art

The brutal cold going into the north American continent every winter is beyond predictable now. Yawn!

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Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Location: Port Talbot
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The brutal cold going into the north American continent every winter is beyond predictable now. Yawn!

But this is a typical British Winter the default is usually zonal etc, but as we know soon as that cold sets up over the pond we all now the outcome. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
20 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Dont think there will be much arguing over whether uppers are cold enoughnat the Canadian forums...   - 40 uppers!  😮

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Modern Art, Art

Looking at the AO, there is negative scatter, even extreme so that cold in Canada could affect North US also.

Could contain: Plot, Chart

Edit: The NAO looking the most positive it has been in months.Could contain: Plot, Chart

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Harrow, London
  • Location: Harrow, London
2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Looks ripe to me for an early final warning of the strat. It won’t take much to finish it off some time later in February.

We could be looking at cold snaps well into April…and the few times I’ve checked over the past week or so, the CFS has been showing potent cold spells well into spring.

Interestingly it has reverted back to showing high pressure anomoly for March in a potentially warmer than usual position - similar to what it was showing before the last week.

glbz700MonInd2.thumb.gif.b8c10ab8d8f0e1ad67e478d4ff758e14.gif

And northern blocking is now showing in April instead...

glbz700MonInd3.thumb.gif.8956af7fa18e8195f2fe0f0ebed8308a.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
19 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

But this is a typical British Winter the default is usually zonal etc, but as we know soon as that cold sets up over the pond we all now the outcome. 

I’d be grateful if you could explain what that outcome is? Thanks 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

Translated further, we really don`t want to upset Netweather...

Could contain: Logo, Advertisement, Text

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
35 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Looking at the AO, there is negative scatter, even extreme so that cold in Canada could affect North US also.

Could contain: Plot, Chart

Edit: The NAO looking the most positive it has been in months.Could contain: Plot, Chart

...perfectly illustrated by the gfes anoms..12z..t300

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Face, Person, Head, Outdoors, Nature

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

A fairly non-descript set of runs to see January out, nothing overly mild or cold on the cards, the azores high attempts to ridge north from time to time but the PV too strong to see any concerted effort and instead we see alternating westerly/north westerly airstream. Some frost in clear spells, sunny as well and not alot of rain on the cards away from the north and west, any snow most likely reserved for northern high ground, colder uppers try to establish over Scotland wintry precipitation quite low levels here I think.

As we move into February - a signal for a strengthening PV to the NW and quite likely a more disturbed wetter and probably mild spell, but we may see some secondary low development and digging of the trough SE, so shorter lived potent blast of polar air can not be ruled out especially for the north, but most likely fleeting.

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

You get the feeling February is going to explode with weather.

Stormy and cold zonal looks favoured at times. I'd be surprised if the naming of storms doesn't kick off quite dramatically!

Last Feb did the same, after an exceptionally quiet January with little stormy weather, might the first part of Feb be a colder version of last Feb I wonder..

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Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Location: Port Talbot
56 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

I’d be grateful if you could explain what that outcome is? Thanks 

The cold over Canada, America pumps up the Jet stream sending lows and stormy weather our way. Or at least lashings of rain for days sometimes weeks. Think of it as a balloon it’s pumped up and all the energy is going under it into the Atlantic picking up rubbish and sending barrelling towards the uk 

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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
58 minutes ago, SilverWolf said:

I’d be grateful if you could explain what that outcome is? Thanks 

Relentless westerlies, wind and rain, usually leading to flooding! Like it was about 3 weeks ago! Basically, utter filth and the worse kind of winter weather...

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The ECM's finally coming out👍

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Thanks for the replies re weather poss coming our way… maybe there’s a repeating pattern? We did have a lot of rain following the deep cold in the US, mid December til early last week. But that was sandwiched between 2 pretty good cold spells - this last one hasn’t been snowy as such, but there’s still half an inch of snow in sunless fields around here that fell last week on Tuesday night, it’s been that cold since. Could we be heading in that direction again in a few weeks? Seems like repeating patterns have been the way for several  months now, be or heat or cold… 

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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
16 minutes ago, Gowon said:

The ECM's finally coming out👍

Can’t see it being worth the wait given this afternoon other 12zs ….

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
8 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Can’t see it being worth the wait given this afternoon other 12zs ….

I'll probably be asleep by the time it finishes🙄

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
2 hours ago, KTtom said:

Dont think there will be much arguing over whether uppers are cold enough for snow at the Canadian forums...   - 40 uppers!  😮

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Modern Art, Art

Canadians are chasing rain and mild..disappointment and meltdown is ensuing with those charts

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
43 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Can’t see it being worth the wait given this afternoon other 12zs ….

agreed - 12zs ecm/gfs very benign runs today neither really cold or warm just average winter weather - let's hope things chivy up soon eh!

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm was worth waiting for then 😂

It's crap but I'm hoping it looks like this evenings JMA in the morning😝

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

Yayyyyy that ECM was worthwhile , we have this as the closest to any interest in my location but its 💩. That said , I must say here it has been a notable cold period that subsided last evening with cloud cover ( which had just left ) hopefully a last hard frost if the week to come . 

Anyway , keep it up please the usual people, you are legendary, I will keep lurking in the most part but should the Navgem come up with something I will post it ( no chance ) . 😊😂.

Thanks Mark

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