Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Winter
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

    Recommended Posts

    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    28 minutes ago, Gowon said:

    It's crap but I'm hoping it looks like this evenings JMA in the morning😝

    Good luck with that one 😆

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    51 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

    Good luck with that one 😆

    Perhaps it will look like tonight's JMA in two or three weeks?! 🤔

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
    12 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Control offering some light relief after a bad few days of modelling 😊

    Could contain: Outdoors, Plot, Chart, Nature

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Art, Face, Person, Head, Outdoors, Nature

    Yes might as well end on a more cheerful note, good old control brings us a BFTE... so its GFS 18z control and JMA verses The rest!😆

     

     

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Sea, Outdoors, Nature, Water, Atlas, Diagram

    • Like 7
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Some interst for the north east over the next few days in the wake of departing lows, however, the direction of travel for 'the' high has been well documented recently in the means, UKMO 168 and GFS 240 suggesting a return to late December..

    Throw in last nights 240 from ECM and its very consistant, unfortunately, as is often the case FI moves way out in some set ups and currently were looking day 10 IMO

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Nature, Outdoors

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map

    Edited by KTtom
    Add chart
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
    7 hours ago, Don said:

     

    wow yes please number 3

    7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    Still fully believe the MJO phase 3 will have quite a big influence in the next few weeks, I did mention a prolonging in that phase

    ECMF-BC-1.png GEFS.png

    JMAN.png

    and I still don't see it being a negative actually could be the opposite as I've shown many times the tilted atlantic troughing can be common in some of our best flows from the East 

    gensnh-19-1-330.png gensnh-36-1-330.png

    gensnh-50-1-330.png gensnh-24-1-342.png

    gensnh-19-1-342.png gensnh-3-1-360.png

    An example I used previously January 2013

    archivesnh-2013-1-18-0-0.png archivesnh-2013-1-20-0-0.png

    archivesnh-2013-1-20-18-0.png

    how about number 3,has to be the pick of the bunch!

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

    The GFS 0z run Op looks to be in its own into February.

    Not just temperature wise but also with the lack of precipitation shown for both London and Oslo whereas other members showing spikes especially for Norway.

    Could contain: Line Chart, Chart, Plot, QR Code

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

    Edited by prolongedSnowLover
    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Morning all. Not a bad chart from GFS in the medium term and shows some promise to the NE. Lets see what develops along the polar front as it heads towards the developing Scandinavian trough. Still possible a sinker in the making along the baroclinic boundary could change the longer term runs. The models do not look overly mild at this stage. 

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: NW Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: NW Essex

    Squinting my eyes but I do believe the ECM now nudges away from -5 850`s.

     

     

    graphe_ens3.gif

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow and if not erm....SNOW
  • Location: Suffolk

    Bonjour!, The Chimps have been let loose on the keyboard again!🐵

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Art, Sea, Water, Kangaroo, Mammal, Animal

    • Like 5
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Weclome to the Sh*itesville horror show from all models this morning.

    The Op overdoes the mildness maybe but still...... 🤢

    Could contain: Chart

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    • Insightful 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: dublin
  • Location: dublin

    Mushymanrob is the man to go to .

    Never wrong and such a balanced view.

    He's predicted BFTE and extremely mild weather so always balanced. 

    He's the man with the charts.

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Hi morning peeps 

    Hope everyone is keeping well. I have not posted for a while I was just sitting back to see if something exciting for us coldies could appear. Rather a dull start here in London this morning really gloomy just on my commute Milton Keynes for work.

    I think we are now gradually approaching the cut of time to make or break for the remainder of what’s left of winter. I don’t see anything of interest in the next 10 days or so going forward. Going into February looks like we may have more influence from the west rather than the north or east. Yes periods of rain interrupted by brief colder periods with NW pm flow at times, maybe the north bearing some fruit from this but no nationwide severe cold. 
     

    Unless something changes into  mid feb with outside factors, sad to say but winter May go out of smoke without any fire . I know it’s coming nearer the crunch time now, soon time will not be in our favour and as the daylight hours start increasing so will the suns strength. 
     

    We can now only hope going forward that winter will give us that one more chance to cherish something in February.

    have a great day all stay safe

    THE SEARCH FOR WINTER CONTINUES BUT TIME IS TICKING 

    regards 😊😊😊😊

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed

    I think the best case scenario with looking at the 500mb means is the jet stream is pushed as far south as possible due to the heights in the artic putting pressure on the PV . There is alot of cold air bottled up to the NW if we could tap into that it's the best we can hope for.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Smoke PipeCould contain: Plot, Chart, Line ChartCould contain: Plot, ChartCould contain: Book, Publication, Comics, Pattern, Person, Outdoors 

    It's looking like the Atlantic westerlies are going to come back with a vengeance as we go into the first week of February. Pressure falling, rainfall spikes increasing. Potentially stormy too depending on where the high/low pressure systems end up.

    • Like 4
    • Insightful 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
    27 minutes ago, E17boy said:

    Hi morning peeps 

    Hope everyone is keeping well. I have not posted for a while I was just sitting back to see if something exciting for us coldies could appear. Rather a dull start here in London this morning really gloomy just on my commute Milton Keynes for work.

    I think we are now gradually approaching the cut of time to make or break for the remainder of what’s left of winter. I don’t see anything of interest in the next 10 days or so going forward. Going into February looks like we may have more influence from the west rather than the north or east. Yes periods of rain interrupted by brief colder periods with NW pm flow at times, maybe the north bearing some fruit from this but no nationwide severe cold. 
     

    Unless something changes into  mid feb with outside factors, sad to say but winter May go out of smoke without any fire . I know it’s coming nearer the crunch time now, soon time will not be in our favour and as the daylight hours start increasing so will the suns strength. 
     

    We can now only hope going forward that winter will give us that one more chance to cherish something in February.

    have a great day all stay safe

    THE SEARCH FOR WINTER CONTINUES BUT TIME IS TICKING 

    regards 😊😊😊😊

    A the end of  January I will have had mean temp of around 4.5 for Dec/January  and lying snow for 7 days. Can live with that. However,  I agree fully with your post above. Winter in March is not really winter and that looks like our only hope with current output. 

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    Models after 5 days all over the place. Seems to be computer models are less accurate now then they were 20 years ago in the medium term . All togeather a step backwards for weather forecasting!  Gfs predicting high pressure over southern Europe again in the days ahead, more or less along with ecm. What does stand out especially for southern Britain, little in the way of rainfall. As regards temperatures, well watch this space....😐

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
    1 hour ago, E17boy said:

    Hi morning peeps 

    Hope everyone is keeping well. I have not posted for a while I was just sitting back to see if something exciting for us coldies could appear. Rather a dull start here in London this morning really gloomy just on my commute Milton Keynes for work.

    I think we are now gradually approaching the cut of time to make or break for the remainder of what’s left of winter. I don’t see anything of interest in the next 10 days or so going forward. Going into February looks like we may have more influence from the west rather than the north or east. Yes periods of rain interrupted by brief colder periods with NW pm flow at times, maybe the north bearing some fruit from this but no nationwide severe cold. 
     

    Unless something changes into  mid feb with outside factors, sad to say but winter May go out of smoke without any fire . I know it’s coming nearer the crunch time now, soon time will not be in our favour and as the daylight hours start increasing so will the suns strength. 
     

    We can now only hope going forward that winter will give us that one more chance to cherish something in February.

    have a great day all stay safe

    THE SEARCH FOR WINTER CONTINUES BUT TIME IS TICKING 

    regards 😊😊😊😊

    Once the PV starts to fragment during March and April and even into May ,then we will look to the North East. By then Winters Bolted, but it's no coincidence that east or north easterly winds are more common late winter into early spring then at any other time of year!😨😨😨

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warmth and sunshine, warm winds or calm, snowfall, rain at night only
  • Location: Dorset
    14 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    Once the PV starts to fragment during March and April and even into May ,then we will look to the North East. By then Winters Bolted, but it's no coincidence that east or north easterly winds are more common late winter into early spring then at any other time of year!😨😨😨

    I've recently found a site with charts that illustrate quite nicely how April and May are the months with the most frequent Northerly and Easterly winds.

    https://weatherspark.com/y/45062/Average-Weather-in-London-United-Kingdom-Year-Round#Sections-Wind

    Could contain: Chart

    The site says its data comes from NASA's MERRA-2 Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis.

    It surprises me that westerly winds are favoured as much in July and August as they are in December and January. Why might this be?

    Edited by RainAllNight
    • Like 3
    • Insightful 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Well i dont think you can argue with these..

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_57.thumb.png.aa399e89c4db488509a1736ca0343633.png

    gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_9.thumb.png.e93e86408c093c19a58f7625c83aab8c.png

    ...and while as others have stated the gfs is being over zealous with its Bartlett.esk charts (sorry to mention that word)..

    Could contain: Chart

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Map

    .....yuck.....

    looking at the means i think a period of zonal type weather...chopping and changing with many fronts passing over us will ensue...

    Could contain: Chart

    Sw..w..nw...some cooler/colder shots obviously still possible..

    ..this mobility seems to be expected really as the weather has been pretty docile lately...last night was 10th night of frost here with plenty of sunny skies...

    • Like 6
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...