Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[blizzard81]

28 minutes ago, Gowon said:

It's crap but I'm hoping it looks like this evenings JMA in the morning

Good luck with that one

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Still fully believe the MJO phase 3 will have quite a big influence in the next few weeks, I did mention a prolonging in that phase

 

and I still don't see it being a negative actually could be the opposite as I've shown many times the tilted atlantic troughing can be common in some of our best flows from the East 

 

 

 

An example I used previously January 2013

 

[Don]

51 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Good luck with that one

Perhaps it will look like tonight's JMA in two or three weeks?! 

[Battleground Snow]

Control offering some light relief after a bad few days of modelling

[snowray]

12 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Control offering some light relief after a bad few days of modelling

Yes might as well end on a more cheerful note, good old control brings us a BFTE... so its GFS 18z control and JMA verses The rest!

 

 

[KTtom]

Some interst for the north east over the next few days in the wake of departing lows, however, the direction of travel for 'the' high has been well documented recently in the means, UKMO 168 and GFS 240 suggesting a return to late December..

Throw in last nights 240 from ECM and its very consistant, unfortunately, as is often the case FI moves way out in some set ups and currently were looking day 10 IMO

Edited January 25, 2023 by KTtom
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[Lukesluckybunch]

7 hours ago, Don said:

 

wow yes please number 3

7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Still fully believe the MJO phase 3 will have quite a big influence in the next few weeks, I did mention a prolonging in that phase

 

and I still don't see it being a negative actually could be the opposite as I've shown many times the tilted atlantic troughing can be common in some of our best flows from the East 

 

 

 

An example I used previously January 2013

 

how about number 3,has to be the pick of the bunch!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

The GFS 0z run Op looks to be in its own into February.

Not just temperature wise but also with the lack of precipitation shown for both London and Oslo whereas other members showing spikes especially for Norway.

Edited January 25, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[carinthian]

Morning all. Not a bad chart from GFS in the medium term and shows some promise to the NE. Lets see what develops along the polar front as it heads towards the developing Scandinavian trough. Still possible a sinker in the making along the baroclinic boundary could change the longer term runs. The models do not look overly mild at this stage. 

[Stuie]

Squinting my eyes but I do believe the ECM now nudges away from -5 850`s.

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

this mornings ecm was horrible,especially the later frames very mobile weather with westerly winds being dominant

[nick sussex]

A very poor start today with the models sadly in very good agreement .

Any glancing blows of cold are edging further east and the PV is rampant and positioned where we don’t want it .

In these set ups any PM flows even if they do pop up later in the timeframes rarely survive as the models at longer range tend to over do the south wards extent of the jet .

Apart from the JMA which shows a brief window of excitement the rest are woeful .

I think today was the strat reversal above 75 n.

Give it one more run but if the buffet table remains with moldy old coleslaw then it’s a case of accepting our fate and hoping for a change later into February.

 

[Nick F]

35 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The GFS 0z run Op looks to be in its own into February.

Not just temperature wise but also with the lack of precipitation shown for both London and Oslo whereas other members showing spikes especially for Norway.

Morning. I think 00z GFS op is probably too high with pressure across southern UK, with its Bartlett-esque high over mainland Europe, a look at the ensembles and the ens mean (below) suggests the jet may push further south with heights / pressure lowering from the northwest with time:

It looks like coldies may have to grin and bare a few weeks of unsettled Atlantic low / westerly domination as head through the first half of February. But we have to expect these bouts of a few weeks of Atlantic zonal weather even in the better winters for coldies.

Good agreement for an extensive TPV spanning Greenland and northern Canada but with the coldest core over Hudson Bay which will push deep cold across Canada into northern US. This serves to fire up a strong zonal jet stream over the N Atlantic towards the UK an all that entails. This could set in for a few weeks with little interruption from MJO, which is over Indian Ocean and looks to either fade into COD or trundle weakly over the Maritime Continent. Correspondingly AAM forecast to remain negative through early February, but hints it may pick up into +AAM territory from mid-Feb, perhaps in response to MJO coming out into COD and perhaps moving over western Pacific - which could lend to more amplification from mid-Feb.

It's becoming increasingly apparent that the minor SSW will have little impact on the trop going forward, so we are now at the mercy of falling back on typical default La Nina winter imprint and MJO amplified in milder phases leading to a milder February ... for now.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Nick F

[Guest]

Bonjour!, The Chimps have been let loose on the keyboard again!

[Purga]

Weclome to the Sh*itesville horror show from all models this morning.

The Op overdoes the mildness maybe but still......

[cold snap]

Mushymanrob is the man to go to .

Never wrong and such a balanced view.

He's predicted BFTE and extremely mild weather so always balanced. 

He's the man with the charts.

[E17boy]

Hi morning peeps 

Hope everyone is keeping well. I have not posted for a while I was just sitting back to see if something exciting for us coldies could appear. Rather a dull start here in London this morning really gloomy just on my commute Milton Keynes for work.

I think we are now gradually approaching the cut of time to make or break for the remainder of what’s left of winter. I don’t see anything of interest in the next 10 days or so going forward. Going into February looks like we may have more influence from the west rather than the north or east. Yes periods of rain interrupted by brief colder periods with NW pm flow at times, maybe the north bearing some fruit from this but no nationwide severe cold. 
 

Unless something changes into  mid feb with outside factors, sad to say but winter May go out of smoke without any fire . I know it’s coming nearer the crunch time now, soon time will not be in our favour and as the daylight hours start increasing so will the suns strength. 
 

We can now only hope going forward that winter will give us that one more chance to cherish something in February.

have a great day all stay safe

THE SEARCH FOR WINTER CONTINUES BUT TIME IS TICKING 

regards

[danthetan]

I think the best case scenario with looking at the 500mb means is the jet stream is pushed as far south as possible due to the heights in the artic putting pressure on the PV . There is alot of cold air bottled up to the NW if we could tap into that it's the best we can hope for.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mb018538]

 

It's looking like the Atlantic westerlies are going to come back with a vengeance as we go into the first week of February. Pressure falling, rainfall spikes increasing. Potentially stormy too depending on where the high/low pressure systems end up.

[Climate Man]

27 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Hi morning peeps 

Hope everyone is keeping well. I have not posted for a while I was just sitting back to see if something exciting for us coldies could appear. Rather a dull start here in London this morning really gloomy just on my commute Milton Keynes for work.

I think we are now gradually approaching the cut of time to make or break for the remainder of what’s left of winter. I don’t see anything of interest in the next 10 days or so going forward. Going into February looks like we may have more influence from the west rather than the north or east. Yes periods of rain interrupted by brief colder periods with NW pm flow at times, maybe the north bearing some fruit from this but no nationwide severe cold. 
 

Unless something changes into  mid feb with outside factors, sad to say but winter May go out of smoke without any fire . I know it’s coming nearer the crunch time now, soon time will not be in our favour and as the daylight hours start increasing so will the suns strength. 
 

We can now only hope going forward that winter will give us that one more chance to cherish something in February.

have a great day all stay safe

THE SEARCH FOR WINTER CONTINUES BUT TIME IS TICKING 

regards

A the end of  January I will have had mean temp of around 4.5 for Dec/January  and lying snow for 7 days. Can live with that. However,  I agree fully with your post above. Winter in March is not really winter and that looks like our only hope with current output. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Models after 5 days all over the place. Seems to be computer models are less accurate now then they were 20 years ago in the medium term . All togeather a step backwards for weather forecasting!  Gfs predicting high pressure over southern Europe again in the days ahead, more or less along with ecm. What does stand out especially for southern Britain, little in the way of rainfall. As regards temperatures, well watch this space....

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, cold snap said:

Mushymanrob is the man to go to .

Never wrong and such a balanced view.

He's predicted BFTE and extremely mild weather so always balanced. 

He's the man with the charts.

Thanks.. but i am wrong.. either because the anomalies failed to pick up on an emerging pattern, or i simply didnt interpret them correctly.

[ANYWEATHER]

1 hour ago, E17boy said:

Hi morning peeps 

Hope everyone is keeping well. I have not posted for a while I was just sitting back to see if something exciting for us coldies could appear. Rather a dull start here in London this morning really gloomy just on my commute Milton Keynes for work.

I think we are now gradually approaching the cut of time to make or break for the remainder of what’s left of winter. I don’t see anything of interest in the next 10 days or so going forward. Going into February looks like we may have more influence from the west rather than the north or east. Yes periods of rain interrupted by brief colder periods with NW pm flow at times, maybe the north bearing some fruit from this but no nationwide severe cold. 
 

Unless something changes into  mid feb with outside factors, sad to say but winter May go out of smoke without any fire . I know it’s coming nearer the crunch time now, soon time will not be in our favour and as the daylight hours start increasing so will the suns strength. 
 

We can now only hope going forward that winter will give us that one more chance to cherish something in February.

have a great day all stay safe

THE SEARCH FOR WINTER CONTINUES BUT TIME IS TICKING 

regards

Once the PV starts to fragment during March and April and even into May ,then we will look to the North East. By then Winters Bolted, but it's no coincidence that east or north easterly winds are more common late winter into early spring then at any other time of year!

[Rain All Night]

14 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Once the PV starts to fragment during March and April and even into May ,then we will look to the North East. By then Winters Bolted, but it's no coincidence that east or north easterly winds are more common late winter into early spring then at any other time of year!

I've recently found a site with charts that illustrate quite nicely how April and May are the months with the most frequent Northerly and Easterly winds.

https://weatherspark.com/y/45062/Average-Weather-in-London-United-Kingdom-Year-Round#Sections-Wind

The site says its data comes from NASA's MERRA-2 Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis.

It surprises me that westerly winds are favoured as much in July and August as they are in December and January. Why might this be?

Edited January 25, 2023 by RainAllNight

[minus10]

Well i dont think you can argue with these..

...and while as others have stated the gfs is being over zealous with its Bartlett.esk charts (sorry to mention that word)..

.....yuck.....

looking at the means i think a period of zonal type weather...chopping and changing with many fronts passing over us will ensue...

Sw..w..nw...some cooler/colder shots obviously still possible..

..this mobility seems to be expected really as the weather has been pretty docile lately...last night was 10th night of frost here with plenty of sunny skies...