Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[That ECM]

Love a trend setter.

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Nick F said:

Cold front sweeping south on the noon fax chart seems a contradiction in name looking at surface temperature obs this afternoon, which show colder temps ahead of the front across S England & milder air to the north.

However, the cold front separates colder air aloft, as can be seen at 850 hPa level, moving down from the north:

 

Yes not often a cold front actually raises temperatures in winter, if this was July the temp chart would be the other way around with the south very warm under high pressure and Scotland cooler under the atlantic flow. Alas at this time of year, high pressure overhead whilst gives warm uppers, t the surface often means cold. 

[nick sussex]

Quite an unusual 850 set up here on the ECM at day 6.

This also shows on the GFS.

A thin wedge of colder uppers .

[minus10]

..... you can see how stable the gfs op is in the outer run we call fi..last 3 runs..

 

[jimbo36]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite an unusual 850 set up here on the ECM at day 6.

This also shows on the GFS.

A thin wedge of colder uppers .

Looks like old mans brewers droop

[damianslaw]

Not much change in the short-medium term output, high pressure to the SW waxing and waning as the PV bears down on it from the NW, end result alternating spells of westerly/north westerly airstreams, temps around or a little above average, most rain reserved for the north and west but nothing especially heavy at least in the shorter term, frost and sunshine in the clearer breaks.

February likely to start on a more unsettled note than the last 2 weeks, with I expect a return of heavy rain and strong winds and generally milder, but not without interest further north if you want something wintry as I expect some cold polar maritime air at times. Interesting how this Jan has panned out quite same as last Jan with a very settled spell, not as long lasting this year but a colder version, bingo last Feb saw the atlantic roar back..

[Ali1977]

T192 shows a fair difference with the WAA, but pretty similar to our NW and NE!! 

 

As expected, polar opposite of the GFS 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Ali1977

[Stuie]

Looks like all this still too much for the GFS.

[supernova]

GFS clearly fed up with dry January and encourages the Op to spend all afternoon plotting how completely bungalowed it’s going to get come February! Hopefully, ECM says I’m having whatever the GFS  is having but I suspect not, especially as the Op appears to be partying on its own with no support from the ENS. Great to see, nonetheless - was getting too subdued in here and I kinda dig the evolution. One to watch and certainly better than having nothing to watch.

[nick sussex]

The GFS op sadly only  has the support of its imaginary friend this evening!

So zip support for that op from the other models .

Edited January 25, 2023 by nick sussex

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS op sadly only  has the support of its imaginary friend this evening!

So zip support for that op from the other models .

A -8 copout against a mean is totally bizarre, got to reboot that thing.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Stuie W

[damianslaw]

ECM sinks the azores high into SW Europe with a strong rampent PV to the NW ready to do its business, end product very wet, very windy and mild. Turning into a very epsiodic winter, cold wintry start, then a 4 week very mild very wet period, then a 10 day colder wintry dry spell, back to a very wet windy mild period -- hoping this one doesn't last 4 weeks, but would not be surprised to see another sudden switch to drier and settled and colder before Feb is out.

Edited January 25, 2023 by damianslaw

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

ECM sinks the azores high into SW Europe with a strong rampent PV to the NW ready to do its business, end product very wet, very windy and mild. Turning into a very epsiodic winter, cold wintry start, then a 4 week very mild very period, then a 10 day colder wintry dry spell, back to a very wet windy mild period -- hoping this one doesn't last 4 weeks, but would not be surprised to see another sudden switch to drier and settled and colder before Feb is out.

Not too sure about mild? It took to T240 to get the mildest 850`s and shouldn`t be mild?

[Don]

5 hours ago, Nick F said:

Looking at the 00z EPS days 11-15 - can clearly see where our flow is likely to come (below) from in early Feb, first 9-10 days anyway, coldest in the west closer to the cold Pm source:

Do you still feel there is potential mid month onwards for something more blocked?

[Don]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Imagine if this became reality The pro’s would be scratching their heads!! 

It would certainly be a WTF moment for them!! 

[blizzard81]

Gfs op may be onto something. Discuss..... I'll get mi coat! 

[goosey007]

47 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS op sadly only  has the support of its imaginary friend this evening!

So zip support for that op from the other models .

Its performance is nothing short of comical …..why are we still taking about it ? Belongs with the navgem in the trash ….which is Shame

 

old habits die hard

Edited January 25, 2023 by goosey007

[Summer8906]

9 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

I've recently found a site with charts that illustrate quite nicely how April and May are the months with the most frequent Northerly and Easterly winds.

https://weatherspark.com/y/45062/Average-Weather-in-London-United-Kingdom-Year-Round#Sections-Wind

The site says its data comes from NASA's MERRA-2 Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis.

It surprises me that westerly winds are favoured as much in July and August as they are in December and January. Why might this be?

I'm actually surprised the frequency of N + E winds isn't even higher in April and May, I'd have said pushing 60%.

[goosey007]

Any bets for a Greenland high on the GFS 18z ?

[Nick F]

32 minutes ago, Don said:

Do you still feel there is potential mid month onwards for something more blocked?

As I mentioned this morning, a few models which show it are predicting a rise in AAM from mid- month coniciding with MJO perhaps reaching the western Pacific at a decent amplitude before mid-month - which may induce more amplification. But too far off to have confidence in this potential pathway to induce a more blocked pattern evolving. But it's all we have to hang our hat on without help from the strat.

[andymusic]

7 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Any bets for a Greenland high on the GFS 18z ?

you'd have a better chance of the Artic moving to over the UK LOL!

[damianslaw]

46 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Not too sure about mild? It took to T240 to get the mildest 850`s and shouldn`t be mild?

Yes granted the flow is from a very cold source crossing the atlantic, at this time of year NW/West flows are at there coldest, and wouldn't take much to see more notable colder uppers should the high sink further south but at the same time we would probably pull in a SW flow instead. Secondary lows could easily develop though and it may become cold cyclonic.

Edited January 25, 2023 by damianslaw

[summer blizzard]

Worth saying In the long run that the GFS has a much more active tropical cycle than the GFS and likely greater heat flux/vortex pressure.

[Ladyofthestorm]

I've (patiently) read through a alot of comments even on this thread about the GFS not doing this that and the next thing. One thing it certainly can't do is fulfil personal snowmageddon wish lists

I think it's telling that when one views the ensemble and you see it beginning to sort out the chaos. 

 

It's unsettled... It's mild (ish) then cold, then mild (ish) then cold. 

A strong NWly regime in place but it's not really mild. That's the take home message. 

And all it takes is the blocking to the west and south of us to ridge and we have a Nly. 

Might not be a beastie from the easrtie... These are incredibly rare. 

But as has been already pointed out  some of our most memorable winters actually come off a NWly based regime. 

Watch the temps through February drop off then watch at the end. 

This isn't chaos this is a pattern beginning to emerge. 

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

44 minutes ago, andymusic said:

you'd have a better chance of the Artic moving to over the UK LOL!

you'd have a better chance of seeing snow if we moved to either Greenland or the Arctic rather than hoping an airmass from either moved to us.