Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Stuie]

29 minutes ago, Ladyofthestorm said:

I've (patiently) read through a alot of comments even on this thread about the GFS not doing this that and the next thing. One thing it certainly can't do is fulfil personal snowmageddon wish lists

I think it's telling that when one views the ensemble and you see it beginning to sort out the chaos. 

 

It's unsettled... It's mild (ish) then cold, then mild (ish) then cold. 

A strong NWly regime in place but it's not really mild. That's the take home message. 

And all it takes is the blocking to the west and south of us to ridge and we have a Nly. 

Might not be a beastie from the easrtie... These are incredibly rare. 

But as has been already pointed out  some of our most memorable winters actually come off a NWly based regime. 

Watch the temps through February drop off then watch at the end. 

This isn't chaos this is a pattern beginning to emerge. 

 

 

If you look at the GEFS, it is actually a touch warmer not colder. Looking at them all, I can`t see a drop off tbh, just a maybe scatter.

[Stuie]

Hope I am not boring folks with these daily outputs but they are teleconnection based.

AO - (affects the US) still a mess but probably weighted towards neutral. This would enhance the US getting a cold shot.

NAO - How much this affects the UK is debatable but it is still pretty much positive. This doesn`t scream cold and does favour unsettled.

 

Just how I interpret.

 

[Cambrian]

The northern arm of the Atlantic jet stream becomes strong by day 9 / 10  and the 12z ECM is bringing it further south again compared with the 0z ECM for the same time and buckling to our northwest.

 

It’s strength is no surprise with all that energy being pumped into it by then, by an increasingly bullish PV, coming up against a resilient European high. The pressure gradient across the UK and Ireland is steep, 45 mb difference between the far north and far south of Britain. 

 

The timing and precise details will of course change but a great deal of scope for some stormy weather from this type of set up as the polar front oscillates north and south. This snapshot for 228h, for instance, shows an inland mean wind speed close to 60 km/hr, around 40mph as a mean wind strength, for over and to the lee of the Pennines, mighty blowy, variations on this theme likely to become quite common for a while. And if secondary features develop in the flow, possibly even more so. 

The next week or so possibly going to be a bit like the aftermath of a quiet night down the pub where you try to posthumously liven up the experience of a few fairly dull evening pints with a serious late night Madras chaser, in the end very little to remember it by, other than far too much liquid to deal with, and a few notable pockets of wind. 

In the meantime, interest as the days go by in just how far south the jet stream gets driven and whether it eventually carries one of those buckles into the middle of Europe, setting up a trough there, to bring us back into a cold flow from the north. 

[joggs]

13 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

The northern arm of the Atlantic jet stream becomes strong by day 9 / 10  and the 12z ECM is bringing it further south again compared with the 0z ECM for the same time and buckling to our northwest.

 

It’s strength is no surprise with all that energy being pumped into it by then, by an increasingly bullish PV, coming up against a resilient European high. The pressure gradient across the UK and Ireland is steep, 45 mb difference between the far north and far south of Britain. 

 

The timing and precise details will of course change but a great deal of scope for some stormy weather from this type of set up as the polar front oscillates north and south. This snapshot for 228h, for instance, shows an inland mean wind speed close to 60 km/hr, around 40mph as a mean wind strength, for over and to the lee of the Pennines, mighty blowy, variations on this theme likely to become quite common for a while. And if secondary features develop in the flow, possibly even more so. 

The next week or so possibly going to be a bit like the aftermath of a quiet night down the pub where you try to posthumously liven up the experience of a few fairly dull evening pints with a serious late night Madras chaser, in the end very little to remember it by, other than far too much liquid to deal with, and a few notable pockets of wind. 

In the meantime, interest as the days go by in just how far south the jet stream gets driven and whether it eventually carries one of those buckles into the middle of Europe, setting up a trough there, to bring us back into a cold flow from the north. 

Just starting to dry out a touch so hope to god these are wrong.

Vile imo,if this comes off. Rather the jet goes as far north as possible.

[Ladyofthestorm]

56 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Hope I am not boring folks with these daily outputs but they are teleconnection based.

AO - (affects the US) still a mess but probably weighted towards neutral. This would enhance the US getting a cold shot.

NAO - How much this affects the UK is debatable but it is still pretty much positive. This doesn`t scream cold and does favour unsettled.

 

Just how I interpret.

 

NW based positive NAOs can bring snow to the UK .  January 84 being on my lips.  Someone posted up in the model highlights thread other analogues. I still firmly believe and think we will get a wintry surprise from the NW or North 

[Mark wheeler]

5 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

most likely a outlier but the trend does try and start earliesh around 192..with a first push of heights northwards

Mild one

[Lukesluckybunch]

my word is the 18z following the 12z?

[Mark wheeler]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

my word is the 18z following the 12z?

That would be epic , even more epic would it to actually happen.

Edited January 25, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Mild one

Hang on there were actually colder runs, considering only one followed the opp, that says some saw a potent n/northwesterly, very potent.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Agree with Mike Poole and Nick F & Nick S, there is usually some ens support when you get this, i would go as far as to say its not even a 1% chance, its 0%, sure there has been a few very cold runs setting up in the suites lately but none from the East, its been either N'ly topplers and WNW flows - zonal but with little slithers of -10c making it across but mainly brief.

lets hope in 2 weeks time a few others will be quoting this post rubbing my nose in it.

[blizzard81]

Oh please gfs do what you did in Dec 2005 and trump all other models with your correct Scandi high. 

[blizzard81]

Alas the pub run doesn't quite stay the extra round. Fun though. 

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

my word is the 18z following the 12z?

No

we have the euro ridging but not the Arctic to meet the WAA as the 12 z did.  But a big w euro ridge of that size is still not what quite what we are expecting for the 8/14 day period as a whole.  

Edited January 25, 2023 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

This runs not over yet, tentative signs of the huge trough starting to disrupt - watch the base of it.

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No

we have the euro ridging but not the Arctic to meet the WAA as the 12 z did.  But a big w euro ridge of that size is still not what quite what we are expecting for the 8/14 day period as a whole.  

Agreed, it definitely isn’t the same as the 12z, however, something like the 18z is perhaps more likely to verify, especially as there is that cluster 4 from the EPS that build a scandi high, here T264+:

Just 7 members (and the other three clusters are pretty horrible to be honest), but it is there, and one to watch…

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Agreed, it definitely isn’t the same as the 12z, however, something like the 18z is perhaps more likely to verify, especially as there is that cluster 4 from the EPS that build a scandi high, here T264+:

Just 7 members (and the other three clusters are pretty horrible to be honest), but it is there, and one to watch…

 

is the cluster still there on the 12z Mike (4)?

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

is the cluster still there on the 12z Mike (4)?

No clusters published on the eps website ….the stamps on meteociel show some support for a suppressed ridge to our east - just 4 members get excellent traction 

Edited January 25, 2023 by bluearmy

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

is the cluster still there on the 12z Mike (4)?

 

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No clusters published on the eps website ….the stamps on meteociel show some support for a suppressed ridge to our east - just 4 members get excellent traction 

Oops, sorry, my bad.  That is indeed the 0z.  I didn’t notice that they hadn’t been updated.  

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

Oops, sorry, my bad.  That is indeed the 0z.  I didn’t notice that they hadn’t been updated.  

quick glance this is about the best one on offer on 12z - as BA says, only a handfull of others.

[bluearmy]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

quick glance this is about the best one on offer on 12z - as BA says, only a handfull of others.

You wouldn’t say no……

[tight isobar]

An, interesting set “ to say the least”- going into the new winter month (February)... I’m still talking  it up@ a tap into some notable cold continental air mid nxt week and forward!!.. 

Edited January 25, 2023 by tight isobar

[Johnp]

A couple more GEFS (inc the control) going for something interesting for coldies on the 18z, up from 2 on the 12z. 

Will be interesting if this increases again on the 00z. 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Johnp

[tight isobar]

Lastly b4 I get my head down- if we continue the notion via the gfs ens- on the notable absence of precipitation spikes... then that’s a sure sign of continental air draw coming into the sequence!.. this is noted starkly via the 18z supports... as ever we’ll have a butchers in the morning, for reference!!.. rest well

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 18/01/2023 at 14:55, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Hi, one phenomena that occurs with the lowest of the stratospheric temperatures are nacreous clouds 

Putting the outlook aside for a min wanted to re mention this as with the displacement of the stratospheric vortex and the lowest vortex temps

there have been wonderful sights of nacreous clouds in Scandinavia

 

[BlackburnChris]

get the feeling somethings happening .... Feb could be a coldies dream this Year ....