Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Derecho]

Quite a change from looking mild and stormy to anticyclonic during early February. Not sure how far our high would ridge NE on the EC at the end of the run but its certainly a shift towards the GFS.

As for the GFS it plays the retrogression to perfection on the 12z, likely to be going off on one again... but this is a few GFS OP runs that have alluded at this now. When GFS OP output produces a few rogue runs in a row, you may end up laughing at it at your peril.....

[bluearmy]

The eps are still pretty flat at day 12 - moreso than the gefs or geps

the control is very amplified 

[Kasim Awan]

Don't see much evidence that this will be anymore than a cycle of the Euro ridge which results in a flattened pattern... too much energy over the top and not enough higher latitude blocking for me.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps are still pretty flat at day 12 - moreso than the gefs or geps

the control is very amplified 

Where are you seeing this Nick,...it is Nick isn't it?

because it's not out yet(12z) on Meteociel

behind paywall?

do you have a screenshot

Edited January 26, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[Gowon]

Out of curiosity - is 500 mb height anomaly derived from the ensembles?

If they're from the ensembles and the ops lead the way in a complex situation like this, then they won't be very accurate?

[Uncertainty]

Last night we were staring at a period of oblivion - and a very well signposted one at that. As I’ve stated before I’ve had U.K. high —> westerlies —> big block is the progression. But I expected the middle phase to last into the 2nd third of Feb. 

The ecm last night was just about as bad as it gets.

The 12z gfs op last night was completely and utterly on its own. A shining light of hope in an otherwise barren sea of desolate output. 

And yet, tonight, the gfs op (again), GEM and  EC Ops are suggesting an amplified U.K. high - and not one that looks like flattening quickly either. The ensembles aren’t there yet, but have trended in that direction. 

So why the shift? And will it be gone in the morning?

The mjo seems keener to stick in high amp phase 3, I’ve always found p4 promotes flat westerlies in winter. The Paul roundy regressions for Mid Feb are really really interesting, but don’t necessarily explain the present shift.

Could it be the strat? Perhaps - a bit early for a QTR. I don’t know. The strat pattern doesn’t scream exactly trop easterlies though. But what I do know is that if the zonal winds were v strong or strengthening, the block would be far less likely.

I’m very wary of this change. It is incredibly rare to go from this:

To this:

 

But what I do know is: I know which one I’d prefer!

 

 

[Stuie]

Guess where the HP is...

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

More on the MJO in phase 3, phases 2 + 3 are the Indian Ocean segments and as the MJO moves through these phases that indicates an increasingly active weather setup across the Indian Ocean such as tropical waves + cyclones. Right on cue 

Live tracking of Cheneso here 

TROPICAL CYCLONE CHENESO Tracker | Cyclocane

WWW.CYCLOCANE.COM

More really fun modelling commencing as the phase 3 input becomes clearer

 

 

 

[Uncertainty]

Ec46 says no.

No to any more winter whatsoever. It was wrong about the blocking continuing into January and it better be wrong this time or it’s feb2020 part two.
 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Uncertainty said:

Ec46 says no.

No to any more winter whatsoever. It was wrong about the blocking continuing into January and it better be wrong this time or it’s feb2020 part two.
 

Lets all blow a big raspberry at the EC46 tonight!!  Come on, one, two, three and....   

[Cloud 10]

ECM day 10 Ens.mean looks pretty pants,but huge uncertainty around the Uk.

 

More runs needed.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

51 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps are still pretty flat at day 12 - moreso than the gefs or geps

the control is very amplified 

Trickling out now on meteociel,...day ten very similar to the op...

And Feb it is then for a Scandi block according to these charts

 

[Singularity]

3 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

Perhaps this.... Strong amplitude mjo with a 10 day lag.

@Cold Winter Night has touted this already 

Nail on the head here IMO, I’ve been Tweeting along such lines for a few days.

With the usual cautionary notes of course. What we’re seeing is models increasingly resolving a tropically forced pattern that will do battle with the displaced stratospheric polar vortex.

If the former dominates then we likely see either a ‘Sceuro’ high (usually either mild or chilly in UK) or a Scandi high (usually chilly or cold).

If the latter does instead then something more akin to recent ensemble means is more likely although probably not as unsettled in southern UK.

Signals lead models and its in these situations that organisations like the Met Office have more of a propensity to slip up due to high reliance on what the models show as opposed to what the signals suggest they should be showing.

[minus10]

Once again the 850s op going down...minus 12 at one point !!

....bit lonely down there though..

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

The eps are still pretty flat at day 12 - moreso than the gefs or geps

the control is very amplified 

yes - one stand out member only i'm afraid, albeit genuinely severely cold and snowy for sustained period.

Edited January 26, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Chesil View]

All rather Interesting again on the ops this evening with gem and ecm moving towards the more amplified gfs solution first mooted yesterday.

Strange that it is the gfs which is the most amplified when we know that it is usually the ecm that has a bias in that regard.

Interesting times.

Edited January 26, 2023 by Chesil View

[stodge]

Evening all

I thought tonight's output might provoke some interest though it seems a less than stellar ec46 (I mean, really) and it's all doom and gloom once again.

I can accept for snow fans it's a long journey to nirvana but for fans of cold the build of heights into Scandinavia (whether we may it to full HLB or end up as an Upper MLB) is an encouraging development.

Let's not get too excited or ahead of ourselves - signals come and signals go and one or two rubbished last night's GFS 12Z OP in far FI for even postulating a Scandinavian HP but of course GFS goes out to T+384 and perhaps there's a lesson here about an OP seeing a scenario before the Ensembles and we shouldn't be too quick to disparage an outlier OP specially if it repeats the signal over the next series of output.

The fact is we are seeing more hints of a build of heights into NW Europe and possibly into southern Scandinavia across a number of models at the T+240 timeframe so still a long way off - if it's there and across all models (especially UKM) at T+120 we can start taking it seriously (cynics might say even T+24 is taking a chance).

Yet it may be gone this time tomorrow only to return in a few days - that's the nature of it.

IF we get the synoptics right there's plenty of cold air to tap into and I'm sceptical because the continuing Wave 1 attacks on the PV should be keeping it strong and in the NE Canada/Greenland area but if this is a trop response to other developments we could well be in with a shout.

 

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Well, just when it seemed that winter chances were slipping away, the interest has returned.
EC at 240h follows a track that is a bit different from 0z and GFS/GEM, but still ends with blocking and a negative tilt on the Atlantic at Day 10.

Considering that these developments appeared on the high resolution runs, and that there was not much like this to be found in the extended EPS ensemble this morning, I doubt if this will be picked up by the EC46 tonight, since that starts off at Day 14 of the regular EPS.
Don't be too disappointed if the EC46 output is underwhelming compared to the 12z high resolution runs.

Could very well be an example of the operationals leading the ensembles.

Did someone say the strat warming will imprint itself on the models from the 27th Jan...

[The Enforcer]

1 hour ago, Uncertainty said:

The 12z gfs op last night was completely and utterly on its own. A shining light of hope in an otherwise barren sea of desolate output. 

And yet, tonight, the gfs op (again), GEM and  EC Ops are suggesting an amplified U.K. high - and not one that looks like flattening quickly either. The ensembles aren’t there yet, but have trended in that direction. 

So why the shift? And will it be gone in the morning?

 

Have I ever observed GFS display the sort of consistency required to hold onto an idea for 40 runs? Well, the answer isn't 'yes'.

Edited January 26, 2023 by The Enforcer

[lottiekent]

8 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Have I ever observed GFS display the sort of consistency required to hold onto an idea for 40 runs? Well, the answer isn't 'yes'.

I think the days/weeks leading to December 2010 were pretty consistent?

The CET that month was -0.7c and the period leading up to it was a steady countdown to cold if I remember rightly

Edit: only one example of yes in a sea of no’s though!

Edited January 26, 2023 by lottiekent

[The Enforcer]

8 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I think the days/weeks leading to December 2010 were pretty consistent?

The CET that month was -0.7c and the period leading up to it was a steady countdown to cold if I remember rightly

Now that is stretching my memory, but given my recollection is that the end of November 2010 was already polar continental, all GFS had to do there was maintain the status quo. Here, it has to hold onto a pattern change. If my memory is wrong, then one victory in 13 years doesn't inspire confidence.

Edited January 26, 2023 by The Enforcer

[lassie23]

I wish the models would make their minds up it's almost February

[stodge]

17 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Now that is stretching my memory, but given my recollection is that the end of November 2010 was already polar continental, all GFS had to do there was maintain the status quo. Here, it has to hold onto a pattern change. If my memory is wrong, then one victory in 13 years doesn't inspire confidence.

It actually called the breakdown consistently from T+384 down on the 12Z OP when other models were looking to prolong the very cold spell well into January 2011.

[northwestsnow]

EC 46 isn't good at all.

[bluearmy]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC 46 isn't good at all.

If the ops are leading the way on more amplification then the ec 46 in for the bin.