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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    ukmo 144😍

    ??

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    The pattern is 100s of mile north of where the UK needs it to be ...

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    ukmo 144😍

    Indeed and better than whatever random potshot the gfs dishes out since it’s upgrade at same time frame.. certsinly worthy of raised eyebrows and keen to see 168

    image.thumb.gif.4e92e326a478fa3b685f3e63e5d18b43.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    ??

    Could contain: Modern Art, Art, Plot, Chart, Graphics

    The pattern is 100s of mile north of where the UK needs it to be ...

    Agreed , not sure what glasses Luke is wearing lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    Just now, MJB said:

    Agreed , not sure what glasses Luke is wearing lol

    I think it’s great that we are seeing some artic heights to our north forming there.. you’re right that in isolation the pattern is too far north however for the 1st time in over two weeks it’s good to see this at relatively short term from UKMO.. looking forward to 168

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    I think it’s great that we are seeing some artic heights to our north forming there.. you’re right that in isolation the pattern is too far north however for the 1st time in over two weeks it’s good to see this at relatively short term from UKMO.. looking forward to 168

    My guess ( That's all it is ) is that the NWly which is further North than the 0z will just drive on through 

    Edited by MJB
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    well just tapping into some of that very cold air to the north!

    The pattern is too far North..

    Hope I'm very wrong but a brief colder 24 to 36 hours before more wind and rain incoming.. 

    ( and I've had an absolute gut full of rain already).

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    The pattern is to far North..

    Hope I'm very wrong but a brief colder 24 to 36 hours before more wind and rain incoming.. 

    ( and I've had an absolute gut full of rain already).

    i think your right in general..12z isnt looking as good tbh ..deep low spinning around iceland at 198,,pulling up mild southwesterlies!

    Edited by Lukesluckybunch
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

    gfsnh-0-192.png?12

    Deep LP now to the NW on GFS ................

    gfsnh-0-198.png?12

    Very different to the 6z 

    Edited by MJB
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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and heat.
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids

     

    2 minutes ago, MJB said:

    gfsnh-0-192.png?12

    Deep LP now to the NW on GFS ................

    gfsnh-0-198.png?12

    Very different to the 6z 

    What is with the GFS and stupidly intense lows? 

    Edited by CoventryWeather
    Words...
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambourne,Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Cambourne,Cambridgeshire
    17 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Well we can see the MOGREPS up to 10 days on TWO but the output will likely go on much longer, there is data from the EC and UKMO that not all the public will have access to. I didn't work at the Met Office itself though so wouldn't know for sure.

    It tells you here 

    binary-code.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    The Unified Model (UM) is a numerical model of the atmosphere used for both weather and climate applications.

     

    Hope that helps. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
    20 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Well we can see the MOGREPS up to 10 days on TWO but the output will likely go on much longer, there is data from the EC and UKMO that not all the public will have access to. I didn't work at the Met Office itself though so wouldn't know for sure.

    Not just two

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Happy New Year Gang!.. 🤔…well it is in some parts of the world 🌎  already! 😜…anyway, enough small talk already!..the GEFS mean is rather tragic for coldies, a mix of cool / mild zonal, generally unsettled broadly westerly flow, some transient ridging producing quieter interludes…in a nutshell 🌰..a complete waste of time for the so called height of winter…but we coldies are used to this carp by now aren’t we!? 😱…anyway, let the celebrations begin! 🎉 🎈 🎊 🥂 🍾 🍹 🍺 🥤 🥳 

    Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Plot, ChartCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, Map, Sea, Water

     

    Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Plot, Chart

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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
    5 minutes ago, zubzero said:

    It tells you here 

    binary-code.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    The Unified Model (UM) is a numerical model of the atmosphere used for both weather and climate applications.

     

    Hope that helps. 

    Thanks for that, I see MOGREPS-15 has been retired so the longer range stuff must be based upon other models. Likely they will be going off ensemble means there but of course the uncertainty at that point is very large anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    1 hour ago, E17boy said:

    Could contain: Publication, Person, Glove, Clothing, Shop, Hat, Advertisement, Text, Face, PosterCould contain: Glove, Person, Man, Adult, Male, Car, Hat, Deer, Bicycle, Advertisement

    Some headlines today, no surprise it’s James Madden again but for once he might hit the right bracket 

    Is he talking about Siberia? 😁.  
    Got to say I was beginning to think that this rut was going to be long.  However, yesterday perked me up and today I think we are seeing the ‘change’ show it’s  hand.

     

    So what we see potentially happening by day 5/6 is what I anticipated would occur this week just gone.  Underestimated the power of Zonal 

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
  • Location: Darlington, 70m asl
    27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    ??

    Could contain: Modern Art, Art, Plot, Chart, Graphics

    The pattern is 100s of mile north of where the UK needs it to be ...

    Absolutely, it would be perfect for Iceland, for sure not for the UK. 

     

    Anyway, happy new year everyone!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

    UKMO 168,....we need that pesky shortwave over W/NW of Scandi to bugger off SE with it's cousin so that pressure can build to our NE.

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    UKMO 168,....we need that pesky shortwave over W/NW of Scandi to bugger off SE with it's cousin so that pressure can build to our NE.

    Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart, Art

     

    Why is it we are always troubled by pesky shortwaves these days?!

    2 minutes ago, mathematician said:

    Absolutely, it would be perfect for Iceland, for sure not for the UK. 

     

    Anyway, happy new year everyone!

    Perhaps he's heading there for a New Year break? 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

    Good to see interest being peaked again. Think I mentioned in the wee hours on my final night shift of 2022 🎆 that the Arctic High really looks to send the jet stream way South which hopefully should increase our chances in models going forward.

    Not sure I've seen the jet so far South across the whole of the NH so defo increases interest going forward.

    Happy New Year gang 🍻

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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
    42 minutes ago, MJB said:

    They also won't update after each run , they will wait for trends across many models before slightly changing the wording .

    Yeah of course, the most recent operationals will take priority and then little changes to the text are added where needs be. When I wrote up longer range forecasts, it was usually from the latest EC with a look at UKMO output to see any disagreements. If the EC was an outlier I'd lean back to the run before that or be a lot more vague of uncertainty was high. That would be the case in the first 10 days anyhow. After that it was always quite generic unless there was a strong signal emerging.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    17 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    UKMO 168,....we need that pesky shortwave over W/NW of Scandi to bugger off SE with it's cousin so that pressure can build to our NE.

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    Have we got 850s on this chart yet?

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

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    GFS looks chilly in FI.

     

    Good to see the lack of high pressure to the south.

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors

    GFS looks chilly in FI.

     

    The Vortex looks pulverised so should help to push things South beyond the viewable. Was always going to be a slow burner to the next chance & with the Euro slug displaced, just takes a bit of luck & a decent gap for some height rises but with the vortex mainly over Asia chances are certainly increased

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