Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Lukesluckybunch]

ukmo 144

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ukmo 144

??

The pattern is 100s of mile north of where the UK needs it to be ...

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ukmo 144

Indeed and better than whatever random potshot the gfs dishes out since it’s upgrade at same time frame.. certsinly worthy of raised eyebrows and keen to see 168

[MJB]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

??

The pattern is 100s of mile north of where the UK needs it to be ...

Agreed , not sure what glasses Luke is wearing lol

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

??

The pattern is 100s of mile north of where the UK needs it to be ...

well just tapping into some of that very cold air to the north!

[TSNWK]

Just now, MJB said:

Agreed , not sure what glasses Luke is wearing lol

I think it’s great that we are seeing some artic heights to our north forming there.. you’re right that in isolation the pattern is too far north however for the 1st time in over two weeks it’s good to see this at relatively short term from UKMO.. looking forward to 168

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

I think it’s great that we are seeing some artic heights to our north forming there.. you’re right that in isolation the pattern is too far north however for the 1st time in over two weeks it’s good to see this at relatively short term from UKMO.. looking forward to 168

My guess ( That's all it is ) is that the NWly which is further North than the 0z will just drive on through 

Edited December 31, 2022 by MJB

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

well just tapping into some of that very cold air to the north!

The pattern is too far North..

Hope I'm very wrong but a brief colder 24 to 36 hours before more wind and rain incoming.. 

( and I've had an absolute gut full of rain already).

Edited December 31, 2022 by northwestsnow

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The pattern is to far North..

Hope I'm very wrong but a brief colder 24 to 36 hours before more wind and rain incoming.. 

( and I've had an absolute gut full of rain already).

i think your right in general..12z isnt looking as good tbh ..deep low spinning around iceland at 198,,pulling up mild southwesterlies!

Edited December 31, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch

[MJB]

Deep LP now to the NW on GFS ................

Very different to the 6z 

Edited December 31, 2022 by MJB

[CoventryWeather]

 

2 minutes ago, MJB said:

Deep LP now to the NW on GFS ................

Very different to the 6z 

What is with the GFS and stupidly intense lows? 

Edited December 31, 2022 by CoventryWeather
Words...

[zubzero]

17 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Well we can see the MOGREPS up to 10 days on TWO but the output will likely go on much longer, there is data from the EC and UKMO that not all the public will have access to. I didn't work at the Met Office itself though so wouldn't know for sure.

It tells you here 

Unified Model

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The Unified Model (UM) is a numerical model of the atmosphere used for both weather and climate applications.

 

Hope that helps. 

[Paul]

20 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Well we can see the MOGREPS up to 10 days on TWO but the output will likely go on much longer, there is data from the EC and UKMO that not all the public will have access to. I didn't work at the Met Office itself though so wouldn't know for sure.

Not just two

MOGREPS Model Viewer| Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

 

 

[Frosty.]

Happy New Year Gang!.. …well it is in some parts of the world  already! …anyway, enough small talk already!..the GEFS mean is rather tragic for coldies, a mix of cool / mild zonal, generally unsettled broadly westerly flow, some transient ridging producing quieter interludes…in a nutshell ..a complete waste of time for the so called height of winter…but we coldies are used to this carp by now aren’t we!? …anyway, let the celebrations begin!  

 

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, zubzero said:

It tells you here 

Unified Model

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

The Unified Model (UM) is a numerical model of the atmosphere used for both weather and climate applications.

 

Hope that helps. 

Thanks for that, I see MOGREPS-15 has been retired so the longer range stuff must be based upon other models. Likely they will be going off ensemble means there but of course the uncertainty at that point is very large anyway.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, E17boy said:

Some headlines today, no surprise it’s James Madden again but for once he might hit the right bracket 

Is he talking about Siberia? .  
Got to say I was beginning to think that this rut was going to be long.  However, yesterday perked me up and today I think we are seeing the ‘change’ show it’s  hand.

 

So what we see potentially happening by day 5/6 is what I anticipated would occur this week just gone.  Underestimated the power of Zonal 

 

BFTP

Edited December 31, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[mathematician]

27 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

??

The pattern is 100s of mile north of where the UK needs it to be ...

Absolutely, it would be perfect for Iceland, for sure not for the UK. 

 

Anyway, happy new year everyone!

[Allseasons-Si]

UKMO 168,....we need that pesky shortwave over W/NW of Scandi to bugger off SE with it's cousin so that pressure can build to our NE.

 

[Don]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

UKMO 168,....we need that pesky shortwave over W/NW of Scandi to bugger off SE with it's cousin so that pressure can build to our NE.

 

Why is it we are always troubled by pesky shortwaves these days?!

2 minutes ago, mathematician said:

Absolutely, it would be perfect for Iceland, for sure not for the UK. 

 

Anyway, happy new year everyone!

Perhaps he's heading there for a New Year break? 

[geordiekev]

Good to see interest being peaked again. Think I mentioned in the wee hours on my final night shift of 2022 that the Arctic High really looks to send the jet stream way South which hopefully should increase our chances in models going forward.

Not sure I've seen the jet so far South across the whole of the NH so defo increases interest going forward.

Happy New Year gang

[Derecho]

42 minutes ago, MJB said:

They also won't update after each run , they will wait for trends across many models before slightly changing the wording .

Yeah of course, the most recent operationals will take priority and then little changes to the text are added where needs be. When I wrote up longer range forecasts, it was usually from the latest EC with a look at UKMO output to see any disagreements. If the EC was an outlier I'd lean back to the run before that or be a lot more vague of uncertainty was high. That would be the case in the first 10 days anyhow. After that it was always quite generic unless there was a strong signal emerging.

[northwestsnow]

GFS looks chilly in FI.

 

[alexisj9]

17 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

UKMO 168,....we need that pesky shortwave over W/NW of Scandi to bugger off SE with it's cousin so that pressure can build to our NE.

 

Have we got 850s on this chart yet?

[Don]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS looks chilly in FI.

 

Good to see the lack of high pressure to the south.

Edited December 31, 2022 by Don

[geordiekev]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS looks chilly in FI.

 

The Vortex looks pulverised so should help to push things South beyond the viewable. Was always going to be a slow burner to the next chance & with the Euro slug displaced, just takes a bit of luck & a decent gap for some height rises but with the vortex mainly over Asia chances are certainly increased