Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Chesil View]

The gfs op doing its usual trick of picking an interesting cold scenario for a few runs and the dropping it. However it very often brings it back again too so I'm not despairing as there are some stonking snowy ensembles in the mix too.

Ecm also develops the Scandi high quite nicely. And with a roaring pv the trough is still negatively tilted.

We'll see what unfolds but I wouldn't give up on a cold outcome  yet.

 

 

[nick sussex]

A quick look at the panel ECM solutions approx 10 out of the 51 look encouraging . 

 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A quick look at the panel ECM solutions approx 10 out of the 51 look encouraging . 

 

So it's growing in that case, hopefully more next run.

[nick sussex]

Just now, alexisj9 said:

So it's growing in that case, hopefully more next run.

It’s typical that the ECM op becomes less interested and the ensembles a bit more .

The day ten ECM op though is still miles better than the GFS .

[Gowon]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s typical that the ECM op becomes less interested and the ensembles a bit more .

The day ten ECM op though is still miles better than the GFS .

I'm glad to see the high holding it's ground over and around us at least, and imo, that's a lot better than what the models were showing a few days ago.

 

[len]

2 hours ago, KTtom said:

As its quiet, any chance someone could give a laymans explanation of this chart, it baffles me! Obviously nothing to do with pressure ?

I believe this is the "spread", or variation, in the perturbations ..... of sea-level pressure.
So in this instance the yellow area NE of UK  is highly uncertain. ie. the solutions here are highly variable. It could be High or Low pressure perhaps. A straw to clutch.
 

[Gowon]

The Icon produces a nasty storm for Scotland early next week

[Nick F]

24 minutes ago, Gowon said:

The Icon produces a nasty storm for Scotland early next week

It was there in roughly the same track on yesterday's 12z EC too, 00z GFS has a shallower low further north yesterday's 18z had a similar deep low and track to EC. Still waiting on the first named storm, must be the latest without naming one, so quiet it has been. Seems pointless the yearly fanfare from Met Office naming a new alphabet of storms each year, may as well just carry on with the previous year's list until they get to Z.

No EPS clusters this morning, so we can't see whether the ridge building N and NE and the Scandi high still a viable option to affect UK weather.

[mushymanrob]

23 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Well the current anomalies are clear.... Early February is looking very unsettled with a strong Westerly feed, unsettled and stormy is still the expected pattern and theres zero heights over Scandinavia.

Theres no sign of an Easterly here in fact these charts are about as far as they could be from allowing one.

It would be highly unusual for a FI GFS run to be more accurate than these.... but stranger things have happened.

Actually, the EPS by feb 10 is very similar to previous EPS charts we had before the recent cold spell.. so IMHO if theres any chance of a cold spell, then itll be a repeat performance of the recent, with low dropping over us and ridging building to our West. However in early January the TPV wasnt as strong as it is now.. As i see it, theres no chance of an Easterly , if we get another cold spell itll come via the North as the last one did.

edit...i see Nick has posted whilst i was composing...

 

Some slight changes.... Pressure is now expected to be a little higher across England and Wales, but theres still a brisk upper flow but from more towards the Southwest.

So not as stormy as i suggested yesterday with most of the Atlantic features tracking North of the UK.

This chart imho suggest mild, rather overcast but not dull, bright, breezy, the usual NW/SE split with the coolest, cloudiest, wettest conditions in the NW. Theres no sign of a Scandinavian high, but this chart is centred on the 6th, so there is time for a Scandinavian High to develop - i just cant see any early hints of it.

As for that phantom Easterly... id suggest using the GFS average charts more than pinning hopes on a desired FI GFS run or two... the GFS average will give you a more honest view. Will we get an Easterly?.. not in this timeframe, and Easterlies in late Feb/March can often be cold and dry, not snowy.

[Battleground Snow]

Perhaps a better GFS run coming here, the vortex does look ominous to the North West though 

[Nick F]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Perhaps a better GFS run coming here, the vortex does look ominous to the North West though 

Yep, better ridging thanks to WAA towards Iceland, but still way too much upper flow energy looping over the top of the burgeoning upper ridge building NE.

[Mike Poole]

Clusters still pretty intermittent whether we get them or not.  No chart for T120 to T240, but the extended T264+ is available:

So - the scandi high signal then.  Clusters 2 and 5 have promise, so that’s 10+6=16 members.  Cluster 4 wouldn’t take much of an adjustment either, another 6.  So there is now a reasonable and growing, but still minority, signal for building a high through the UK into scandi somewhere.

Note, that this is not the straight link up over the arctic with the pacific ridge from Wednesday’s GFS 12z - that was rightly dismissed as being highly unlikely, and is not on the table, but a less specific build of heights to our NE very much is on the table.

[Gowon]

54 minutes ago, Nick F said:

It was there in roughly the same track on yesterday's 12z EC too, 00z GFS has a shallower low further north yesterday's 18z had a similar deep low and track to EC. Still waiting on the first named storm, must be the latest without naming one, so quiet it has been. Seems pointless the yearly fanfare from Met Office naming a new alphabet of storms each year, may as well just carry on with the previous year's list until they get to Z.

No EPS clusters this morning, so we can't see whether the ridge building N and NE and the Scandi high still a viable option to affect UK weather.

Yeah, been too busy looking at the bigger picture and missed what was going on over UK.

[Gowon]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Clusters still pretty intermittent whether we get them or not.  No chart for T120 to T240, but the extended T264+ is available:

So - the scandi high signal then.  Clusters 2 and 5 have promise, so that’s 10+6=16 members.  Cluster 4 wouldn’t take much of an adjustment either, another 6.  So there is now a reasonable and growing, but still minority, signal for building a high through the UK into scandi somewhere.

Note, that this is not the straight link up over the arctic with the pacific ridge from Wednesday’s GFS 12z - that was rightly dismissed as being highly unlikely, and is not on the table, but a less specific build of heights to our NE very much is on the table.

Maybe another attempt at it later on

[Gowon]

Here we go

The Vortex split and shoved over to Russia

[Paul]

Latest blog from @Nick F - worth a read..

Stratosphere warms, unsettled westerlies return next week, but high pressure fights back

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Dispelling the recent hype about an SSW, it has warmed up top, but not enough for a reversal that will work its way down to impact our weather. If anything, westerlies will strengthen next week, bringing...

 

[IDO]

Obviously JFF with low confidence, but the FI GFS op highlights what I was expecting for the mid-Feb cold shot:

No Scandi high, but the third 2022/3 Winter Asian-Scandi trough, hopefully penetrating to the UK. I like patterns and ongoing I see this as the most likely solution until proven otherwise.

So the tPV main lobe transporting west to east to our north, which takes a week or so, as per previous synoptic, opening up for some Atlantic forcing. I do not see the blob to our NW being permanent, as so far this winter, the tPV has not shown that characteristic. Best to ignore the Scandi-high hunting in this setup. Post-D10 is still flakey so need some days before we can see where we go for mid-Feb.

[bluearmy]

The end of the gfs run has a downwelling  reversal wave signature and the timing is more in line with what might be expected following current events in the upper strat 

Now to look out for eps members  playing with this pattern and timing … 

Edited January 27, 2023 by bluearmy

[Cold Winter Night]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Clusters still pretty intermittent whether we get them or not.  No chart for T120 to T240, but the extended T264+ is available:

So - the scandi high signal then.  Clusters 2 and 5 have promise, so that’s 10+6=16 members.  Cluster 4 wouldn’t take much of an adjustment either, another 6.  So there is now a reasonable and growing, but still minority, signal for building a high through the UK into scandi somewhere.

Note, that this is not the straight link up over the arctic with the pacific ridge from Wednesday’s GFS 12z - that was rightly dismissed as being highly unlikely, and is not on the table, but a less specific build of heights to our NE very much is on the table.

The EPS 192-240h cluster charts are available now.

The UK-Scandi High clusters (2,3,4) contain 30 members on that range, a majority therefore, up from 23 on yesterday's 12z (ensembles are not a democracy though).
Cluster 5, although flat, is not the worst outcome, as it drives the NW-SE deep into SE-Europe, leaving some possibilities for modest Pm shots and Scandi height developments later on.

The De Bilt 2m plume has cooled a bit in the 9-15 day range, more members with frost due to those heights nearby. Generally near average.

[Gowon]

30 minutes ago, IDO said:

Obviously JFF with low confidence, but the FI GFS op highlights what I was expecting for the mid-Feb cold shot:

No Scandi high, but the third 2022/3 Winter Asian-Scandi trough, hopefully penetrating to the UK. I like patterns and ongoing I see this as the most likely solution until proven otherwise.

So the tPV main lobe transporting west to east to our north, which takes a week or so, as per previous synoptic, opening up for some Atlantic forcing. I do not see the blob to our NW being permanent, as so far this winter, the tPV has not shown that characteristic. Best to ignore the Scandi-high hunting in this setup. Post-D10 is still flakey so need some days before we can see where we go for mid-Feb.

I wouldn't ignore it yet when there's 30 members still going for it.

[Rain All Night]

18 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

ensembles are not a democracy

[Catacol]

28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The end of the gfs run has a downwelling  reversal wave signature and the timing is more in line with what might be expected following current events in the upper strat 

Now to look out for eps members  playing with this pattern and timing … 

Yep - outer edges of GFS is likely to be the best place to look for cold at the moment because I don't see much other than westerly dominated weather over the next 2 weeks at least. I'm going to hunker down and get through to the first round of the Six Nations and launch my consciousness at the one week's holiday coming to me in the middle of February and try and switch off from the weather for a bit. Even in our best winters (bar 62/63) we know westerlies dominate numerically and are never far away - so while it is disappointing to see a flattish spell it goes with the territory for us. Strat disruption has not fallen kindly (and precursor pattern has gone), pacific drivers not helping, ENSO/QBO/Solar from a seasonal perspective not in the right zone either. AAM now firmly heading negative too, a sign of reducing amplification

Anomaly chart remains solidly westerly

If anything changes, I'll be back.... 

[MP-R]

Mostly dry and mostly benign seems to be the order of the day emerging across the models from my take. Not quite the 1040mb+ high that the GFS showed recently, but still anticyclonic. No early-winter style storminess except for maybe glancing blows to the far north, but likewise not much in the way of continental or  arctic cold. Nothing too unusual for February I suppose which is often a calm month except for temperatures perhaps leaning more above average than not. 

Might have to take another break from the models for a few days and see if anything of a wintry nature comes back into view. I thought a week off in Spain and going through a tax return would allow for something more of interest to appear... 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

The end of the gfs run has a downwelling  reversal wave signature and the timing is more in line with what might be expected following current events in the upper strat 

Now to look out for eps members  playing with this pattern and timing … 

It might do, but theres no sign of anything here...

 

[Don]

36 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

It might do, but theres no sign of anything here...

 

A bit different to a week ago!!