Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Bricriu]

I wonder will the ECM show something similar  to the underwhelming UKMO? There seems to be too much energy left around Greenland for anything favourable to develop to the North West. Maybe we can get  height rises to the North East, as per the GFS, but this model has been very poor of late, so its hard to have any confidence in it. 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I wonder will the ECM show something similar  to the underwhelming UKMO? There seems to be too much energy left around Greenland for anything favourable to develop to the North West. Maybe we can get  height rises to the North East, as per the GFS, but this model has been very poor of late, so its hard to have any confidence in it. 

Isn't the north east the place to be looking, rather than the north west currently?

[geordiekev]

14 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

I wonder will the ECM show something similar  to the underwhelming UKMO? There seems to be too much energy left around Greenland for anything favourable to develop to the North West. Maybe we can get  height rises to the North East, as per the GFS, but this model has been very poor of late, so its hard to have any confidence in it. 

The 7 day UKMO won't show the period of peak interest yet but should be some polar maritime to contend with in the mean time & just begins to show Europe starting to cool down in the interim.

If we can get low to split & head South, whilst Euro high on its Atlantic vacation then game on. Early days for now & still a few options available

Edited December 31, 2022 by geordiekev

[Kentspur]

4 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

The 7 day UKMO won't show the period of peak interest yet but should be some polar maritime to contend with in the mean time & should show Europe starting to cool down in the interim

Hopefully the PM becomes AM if not some sort of Easterly wind vector down the line (usually February&March though) when suns a factor. Noone wants cold rain and windy weather ehich PM gives 90% of the population unfortunately. Id much rather cold and dry from north even though its generally snowless also

[Stuie]

Never knew NW had the Mogreps charts, nice 1 Paul.

Looking at the 2M temps for London, is a mess but doesn`t look overly cold out of that, far from warm, just not `that` cold.

[geordiekev]

5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Hopefully the PM becomes AM if not some sort of Easterly wind vector down the line (usually February&March though) when suns a factor. Noone wants cold rain and windy weather ehich PM gives 90% of the population unfortunately. Id much rather cold and dry from north even though its generally snowless also

Totally agree, though it's beyond the PM shots that's peaking interest, if we can keep the ground coolish before then certainly aint a bad thing

Edited December 31, 2022 by geordiekev
Typo

[Derecho]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

Isn't the north east the place to be looking, rather than the north west currently?

Yes and although it will be difficult to get any cold, changes in the short term are now allowing the possibility of something interesting. A few ens members from this GFS are keeping heights stubbornly high over Scandi:

 

[terrier]

Well nothing really exciting in the models at the moment regarding cold and snow. But just wanted to wish everyone a happy new year. Let’s hope for some colder weather in the early part of 2023. If you are out celebrating tonight stay safe and have a wonderful time. And once again happy new year to you all. 

[Cuban Zebra]

8 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well nothing really exciting in the models at the moment regarding cold and snow. But just wanted to wish everyone a happy new year. Let’s hope for some colder weather in the early part of 2023. If you are out celebrating tonight stay safe and have a wonderful time. And once again happy new year to you all. 

I tend to agree with you on that but i wouldn’t be too surprised to something very cold start to appear in the medium range and change quickly!!

[johnholmes]

I wish everyone on this forum and indeed all forums on Net Weather A very Happy and hopefully a healthy 2023

[MATTWOLVES 3]

If we can't get a split,then a displacement will do for now..im sure it was the last displacement event that brought those colder conditions with snow back in 2020 I think..I remember an Amber warning being issued for around here at the time.

A split..a stretch whatever its always gonna be a lottery but it will increase our chances of something significant much more.

So I will make some New Year resolutions on behalf of all of us this evening.

1...All get to the Gym more frequently.

2..Get that tattoo you've been planning for years but have always chickened out of it at the last minute.

3...Eat more healthier.

4..Give in the fags.

5...Cut back on booze.

6...Spend more time with loved ones.

7..Enjoy life like there's no tomorrow.

And finally the main event.

Please weather gods...split the PV like back in 2018 and unleash hell on us..

Whether your staying home tonight (like me)...due to being a carer for my dad...or hitting the tiles please have a drink for me and say a toast to all of Netweather.

But do have a splendid evening and may the God's shower you with Health wealth and good fortune for 2023.

Edit...and after reading back on some of those  Resolutions...I would imagine some of you thinking....what's the point in living if I have to give in all of that ok enjoy in moderation..

@Eagle Eye im endorsing you young man...I expect a cheque in the post

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

 

I'm famous, my tweets have made it to Mattwolves post . Anyway, I'll be positing my thoughts up in full later because I don't have much of a life. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

HNY All, Matt keep going with the caring, one day it’s gone….gone forever.  I know as I’ve lost so much since 2018.  Both parents, and last 2 years so many lifelong friends to cancer…8 to be exact, to cancer….and 6 were in their 50s and early 60s.  It’s mind crunching, but solace is taken for ‘being there’.  My sincere best wishes to you…..keep battling 

 

best regards to ALL

 

BFTP

[Allseasons-Si]

@MATTWOLVES,...i will be running down to the gym naked if a cold spell comes soon,...mark my words,keep up the good work on here and caring for your dad

i keep on switching from here on this forum in between laying the bathroom floor

as for the models,...it looks like PM shots from time to time in the next couple of weeks with hopefully some surprises along the way,...you never know

so on that note i wish everyone on here a Happy new year and all the best for 2023

goes back to lurking on the bathroom floor

be back later

[Bricriu]

17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

HNY All, Matt keep going with the caring, one day it’s gone….gone forever.  I know as I’ve lost so much since 2018.  Both parents, and last 2 years so many lifelong friends to cancer…8 to be exact, to cancer….and 6 were in their 50s and early 60s.  It’s mind crunching, but solace is taken for ‘being there’.  My sincere best wishes to you…..keep battling 

 

best regards to ALL

 

BFTP

Indeed. As a guy I worked with told me when I was looking after my father, you won't regret missed work, it can be made up, but time with your father can't be. How right he was. Painful memories in a way, but very cherished too. Anyway happy new year  and good health to everyone using this forum. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

@MATTWOLVES,...i will be running down to the gym naked if a cold spell comes soon,...mark my words,keep up the good work on here and caring for your dad

i keep on switching from here on this forum in between laying the bathroom floor

as for the models,...it looks like PM shots from time to time in the next couple of weeks with hopefully some surprises along the way,...you never know

so on that note i wish everyone on here a Happy new year and all the best for 2023

goes back to lurking on the bathroom floor

be back later

Cheers Si...I misread your post then and assumed you was sprawled out on the bathroom floor...I thought good lord...si has started early

Just been outside and omg...ridiculously mild...be gone with you for the love of God.

[Polar Maritime]

Here's to a Happy & Healthy New Year to all.. What a great community we have here on NetWeather.

Will be the 20th Anniversary of the Forum next year... Long may it continue!

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Polar Maritime

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Nothing extra to come off the Eastern Seaboard….that for me drops Se/ESE And away we go

 

BFTP

Edited December 31, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sundog]

34 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

HNY All, Matt keep going with the caring, one day it’s gone….gone forever.  I know as I’ve lost so much since 2018.  Both parents, and last 2 years so many lifelong friends to cancer…8 to be exact, to cancer….and 6 were in their 50s and early 60s.  It’s mind crunching, but solace is taken for ‘being there’.  My sincere best wishes to you…..keep battling 

 

best regards to ALL

 

BFTP

Most people I know who got and or died from cancer have been in their 50s. Apparently the 50s can be a dodgy time due to hormone changes.... one never knows what the future holds ,but hopefully a decent cold spell at some pointvthis winter.  Anyway happy new year to all 

[Rain All Night]

12 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Nothing extra to come off the Eastern Seaboard….that for me drops Se/ESE And away we go

 

BFTP

I assume since no one else has posted the ECM that it doesn't make anything of the Arctic heights?

[January Snowstorm]

The lack of comment usually is a give away lol.

Looks zonal as far as the eye can see for me. Cool at times so Northern highground may benefit 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

The lack of comment usually is a give away lol.

Looks zonal as far as the eye can see for me. Cool at times so Northern highground may benefit 

I suspect hills 350 -400m locally will do very well next week..

For anything below 300m it just looks wet - although the much derided EC snow depth charts look decent again...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Worth remembering that we should remain focused on that warming of the strat which will I feel at least stretch the PV...even a split further down the line..so we could if things go to plan have some joy for final 3rd of the month and beyond. 

Before I go and live it large with my hot cocoa I bring you the 12s from mogreps..which I feel have trended a tad colder!

 

[bluearmy]

Eps look a bit flatter day 8. Looking for low heights to drop a bit further south but model is much closer to the geps than the gefs 

[stodge]

Evening all

First, Happy New Year to all on here whether regular contributor, occasional commenter or lurker.

Thanks also to the Team for keeping the road on the show.

As for tonight's output, fairly broad concensus around a continuation of unsettled, Atlantic-driven weather to start 2023. Next weekend it looks as though a strong trough will develop to the south of Greenland and this will align negatively into Europe temporarily displacing the heights over Iberia back into the Atlantic and allowing for PM air to work across the British Isles and North West Europe.  Snow for some and certainly for those with elevation further north likelihood of more than perhaps transient snowfall.

Beyond that, well, the first point is attempts to build heights into Scandinavia are so far getting flattened by the strong jet - we need the displaced PV to end up more over central Canada and less over NE Canada/Greenland. The 06Z 10 HPA charts on GFS OP were very impressive but the 12z less so if I'm being honest.  I'm not huge on Wave 1 warming from the Siberian side as it simply sends the displaced vortex back over to Canada/Greenland but if we can get Wave 2 attacks as well so much the better. 

It looks as though we will move into a short period of PM influenced weather through next weekend but whether the pattern resets with heights returning to Iberia and a positive re-alignment of the pressure systems or whether heights rise enough to form a mid-latitude block is to be resolved.  I don't currently see the kind of cold and snowy weather many on here would like but nor so I see relentless zonality for weeks on end. There's clearly a lot going on and a lot to be resolved.