Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[*Stormforce~beka*]

51 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Cheers Si...I misread your post then and assumed you was sprawled out on the bathroom floor...I thought good lord...si has started early

Just been outside and omg...ridiculously mild...be gone with you for the love of God.

I read it this way too

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Eps look a bit flatter day 8. Looking for low heights to drop a bit further south but model is much closer to the geps than the gefs 

Possibly ties in with Exeters update..

Feels like flogging a dead horse at times..

It's so wet locally - becoming a talking point already..

[lassie23]

There is always next year

[Don]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

There is always next year

Tomorrow?! 

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Tomorrow?! 

Day After Tommorow

[Don]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Possibly ties in with Exeters update..

Feels like flogging a dead horse at times..

It's so wet locally - becoming a talking point already..

Lets hope not, the last few days have been a bit more positive following the post Christmas blues.  Hope the next few days are going to be post NYE blues?!

[Bricriu]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Possibly ties in with Exeters update..

Feels like flogging a dead horse at times..

It's so wet locally - becoming a talking point already..

Maybe wave 2 warming will come to the rescue, but then given the Exeter update there must be no strong signal for a colder turn. Which would suggest their in house model doesn't see a SSW occurring. 

[Dacyfo]

Hi all,just like to say the depth of knowledge many have on here when trying to interpret the models I find astounding. Think a large number of you have missed your vocation and should have been doing this for a living. Anyhow I'd like to wish one and all a happy and healthy new year and hope the weather god's are kind this coming year

Edited December 31, 2022 by Dacyfo

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean at T240:

Direction of travel still to erode euro heights but I think this reflects my view of the afternoon op runs that things are happening a little slower in terms of moving the main low east, compared to earlier runs.  Gets there in the end. 

Last clusters of 2022, T192-T240:

Differing in the ridge on cluster 2 strongly linking USA to the retracting euro heights.  Similar progress wrt the main low.

T264+:

Extended period still looks a good outcome, in the sense of atlantic ridge for the first two, and scandi block (ish!) for the third.  Fourth labelled a return to +NAO by day 15 but that looks ‘ish’ to me too.

May I wish everyone a very happy new year, and the all the very best for 2023.  

Regards, Mike

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean at T240:

Direction of travel still to erode euro heights but I think this reflects my view of the afternoon op runs that things are happening a little slower in terms of moving the main low east, compared to earlier runs.  Gets there in the end. 

Last clusters of 2022, T192-T240:

Differing in the ridge on cluster 2 strongly linking USA to the retracting euro heights.  Similar progress wrt the main low.

T264+:

Extended period still looks a good outcome, in the sense of atlantic ridge for the first two, and scandi block (ish!) for the third.  Fourth labelled a return to +NAO by day 15 but that looks ‘ish’ to me too.

May I wish everyone a very happy new year, and the all the very best for 2023.  

Regards, Mike

Clusters have cheered me up

All the  best Mike..

[CoventryWeather]

Not much to say wrt the models - similar to earlier on in the day. 

I wish everyone here a happy new year - hope 2023 is positive for everyone here. 

[mathematician]

3 hours ago, Don said:

Why is it we are always troubled by pesky shortwaves these days?!

Perhaps he's heading there for a New Year break? 

The supermarket maybe

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean at T240:

Direction of travel still to erode euro heights but I think this reflects my view of the afternoon op runs that things are happening a little slower in terms of moving the main low east, compared to earlier runs.  Gets there in the end. 

Last clusters of 2022, T192-T240:

Differing in the ridge on cluster 2 strongly linking USA to the retracting euro heights.  Similar progress wrt the main low.

T264+:

Extended period still looks a good outcome, in the sense of atlantic ridge for the first two, and scandi block (ish!) for the third.  Fourth labelled a return to +NAO by day 15 but that looks ‘ish’ to me too.

May I wish everyone a very happy new year, and the all the very best for 2023.  

Regards, Mike

I would take both the Atlantic or Scandi heights there Mike,...not a bad set TBH in the ext'd

Happy new year to ya mate

[Derecho]

EC OP didn't bring any surprises, so unsurprisingly a lack of interest. However the mean is quite different to our NE

More conductive towards bringing colder air further into Scandi. A better shape to that high.

Lets keep piling in the cold there.

[Allseasons-Si]

Does anyone want to know what the end of Jan might look like

well,...the cfs has it nailed

[Frosty.]

For sure, a few GEFS 12z perturbations piqued my interest regarding further into Janvier! …anyway, enough of that..all together now, for auld lang syne..etc, etc!…    ..hiccup..I’ve started early!  

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Keep your eye on th EC control,...the trough to our NW has a slower evolution throwing heights up ahead of it.

Meteociel - Cartes Ensemble CEP/ECMWF ENS

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Does anyone want to know what the end of Jan might look like

well,...the cfs has it nailed

Yes it has…..as close as it gets

 

 BFTP

[That ECM]

30 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

EC OP didn't bring any surprises, so unsurprisingly a lack of interest. However the mean is quite different to our NE

More conductive towards bringing colder air further into Scandi. A better shape to that high.

Lets keep piling in the cold there.

Looks dry. HNY all.

[cheshire snow]

To all members Paul and the team wishing you all a very Happy and healthy 2023.

[legritter]

First i must wish all Posters a balanced and very happy new year .As for the weather  ,next week is looking mild and often wet then if some of the models at the longer range come true we are then in with a shot of polar Air with deep areas of low pressure maybe lowering hights to our southeast. Think we'll get a good run of dream 10 dayers then perhaps a sniff of a decent chase .take care all and enjoy your evening , all the best for 2023 cheers and sausage baps all round with Stella s of course. 

 

 

[SqueakheartLW]

A few cherry picked members of the GFS and GEM again that I'm sure coldies here would love to see happen

Option 1 - Cold and Dry

GEM 12z P19

A nice gentle cold easterly to start off, not a proper beast but I'd take this over what we have right now.

GFS 06z P29

Very similar to the GEM example above and probably a similar outcome to the above. This and the previous example are the cold, sunny day and cold frosty night options I have.

Option 2 - Cold and Wintry (Arctic Air)

GFS 06z P16

The first of the cold and wintry options with Arctic sourced air. A good chance here of snow showers in the NE and E.

GFS 12z P15

The second cold and wintry option with Arctic sourced air. A greater chance of snow here compared with the above with that trough in the North Sea ready to pounce and enhance the snow chances.

Option 3 -  Battleground UK

GFS 00z Control

A perfect battleground is setting up here between the Atlantic trying to push fronts in and milder air vs that very cold air just to the east. Which one is going to win and how far can the fronts push in will determine who gets to see snow and how much and depending on which wins the battle will determine if the snow soon thaws if the Atlantic wins or if the snow sticks as the cold air wins and we set up a flow straight from the east and those very cold uppers.

Option 4 - BEASTERLY

GFS 18z P15

About the nearest example I could find to a beasterly here. Not as good as 28th February 2018 I have to admit as that was quite an extreme example of one but I'd take this watered down version. This is likely to give snow showers to some eastern areas and the coldest temperatures on average. Give me this please.

[Daniel*]

Happy new year all, it's been mostly a joy.... almost 10 years since I signed up I'm sure 2013 wasn't that long ago, I was the baby where did the time go? 

Anyway, I think next week will be most interesting, a rather pivotal NWP week for rest of winter I'd say. ECM high res will be shortly in the time period of interest. 

[Battleground Snow]

Super cold air is lurking out to the north East, if that scandi high can just intensify, it will march towards western Europe 

[syed2878]

Well folks another day of uninspiring set of output lets hope ECMWF mean is on the money and get shot of those euro heights and give us what we want.  May i wish all membors and staf at netweather a verry happy and peeceful newyear and all those of you have had difficulty thru out this year may 2023 is a easy1 for all of you. Keep up the good work folks and enjoy the weather what ever it may bring.