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Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    51 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Cheers Si...I misread your post then and assumed you was sprawled out on the bathroom floor...I thought good lord...si has started early 🤣

    Just been outside and omg...ridiculously mild...be gone with you for the love of God.

    I read it this way too 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Eps look a bit flatter day 8. Looking for low heights to drop a bit further south but model is much closer to the geps than the gefs 

    Possibly ties in with Exeters update..

    Feels like flogging a dead horse at times..

    It's so wet locally - becoming a talking point already.. ☹️

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Possibly ties in with Exeters update..

    Feels like flogging a dead horse at times..

    It's so wet locally - becoming a talking point already.. ☹️

    Lets hope not, the last few days have been a bit more positive following the post Christmas blues.  Hope the next few days are going to be post NYE blues?!

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    Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland
    8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Possibly ties in with Exeters update..

    Feels like flogging a dead horse at times..

    It's so wet locally - becoming a talking point already.. ☹️

    Maybe wave 2 warming will come to the rescue, but then given the Exeter update there must be no strong signal for a colder turn. Which would suggest their in house model doesn't see a SSW occurring. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Weather Preferences: coldie
  • Location: Reading

    Hi all,just like to say the depth of knowledge many have on here when trying to interpret the models I find astounding. Think a large number of you have missed your vocation and should have been doing this for a living. Anyhow I'd like to wish one and all a happy and healthy new year and hope the weather god's are kind this coming year

    Edited by Dacyfo
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM mean at T240:

    Could contain: Outdoors, Accessories, Nature, Art, Pattern

    Direction of travel still to erode euro heights but I think this reflects my view of the afternoon op runs that things are happening a little slower in terms of moving the main low east, compared to earlier runs.  Gets there in the end. 

    Last clusters of 2022, T192-T240:

    Could contain: Comics, Book, Publication, Person

    Differing in the ridge on cluster 2 strongly linking USA to the retracting euro heights.  Similar progress wrt the main low.

    T264+:

    Could contain: Book, Publication, Comics, Pattern, Ct Scan

    Extended period still looks a good outcome, in the sense of atlantic ridge for the first two, and scandi block (ish!) for the third.  Fourth labelled a return to +NAO by day 15 but that looks ‘ish’ to me too.

    May I wish everyone a very happy new year, and the all the very best for 2023.  

    Regards, Mike

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM mean at T240:

    Could contain: Outdoors, Accessories, Nature, Art, Pattern

    Direction of travel still to erode euro heights but I think this reflects my view of the afternoon op runs that things are happening a little slower in terms of moving the main low east, compared to earlier runs.  Gets there in the end. 

    Last clusters of 2022, T192-T240:

    Could contain: Comics, Book, Publication, Person

    Differing in the ridge on cluster 2 strongly linking USA to the retracting euro heights.  Similar progress wrt the main low.

    T264+:

    Could contain: Book, Publication, Comics, Pattern, Ct Scan

    Extended period still looks a good outcome, in the sense of atlantic ridge for the first two, and scandi block (ish!) for the third.  Fourth labelled a return to +NAO by day 15 but that looks ‘ish’ to me too.

    May I wish everyone a very happy new year, and the all the very best for 2023.  

    Regards, Mike

    Clusters have cheered me up 😁

    All the  best Mike..

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and heat.
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids

    Not much to say wrt the models - similar to earlier on in the day. 

    I wish everyone here a happy new year - hope 2023 is positive for everyone here. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
    6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM mean at T240:

    Could contain: Outdoors, Accessories, Nature, Art, Pattern

    Direction of travel still to erode euro heights but I think this reflects my view of the afternoon op runs that things are happening a little slower in terms of moving the main low east, compared to earlier runs.  Gets there in the end. 

    Last clusters of 2022, T192-T240:

    Could contain: Comics, Book, Publication, Person

    Differing in the ridge on cluster 2 strongly linking USA to the retracting euro heights.  Similar progress wrt the main low.

    T264+:

    Could contain: Book, Publication, Comics, Pattern, Ct Scan

    Extended period still looks a good outcome, in the sense of atlantic ridge for the first two, and scandi block (ish!) for the third.  Fourth labelled a return to +NAO by day 15 but that looks ‘ish’ to me too.

    May I wish everyone a very happy new year, and the all the very best for 2023.  

    Regards, Mike

    I would take both the Atlantic or Scandi heights there Mike,...not a bad set TBH in the ext'd

    Happy new year to ya mate😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull

    EC OP didn't bring any surprises, so unsurprisingly a lack of interest. However the mean is quite different to our NE

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, MapCould contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Outdoors

    More conductive towards bringing colder air further into Scandi. A better shape to that high.

    Lets keep piling in the cold there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

    Does anyone want to know what the end of Jan might look like

    well,...the cfs has it nailed😁

    Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, ArtCould contain: Art, Accessories, Pattern, Graphics, Outdoors

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    For sure, a few GEFS 12z perturbations piqued my interest regarding further into Janvier! 😜…anyway, enough of that..all together now, for auld lang syne..etc, etc!… 🧐  :drunk-emoji: 🎉 🎈 🎊 🍹 🥤 🍾 🥂..hiccup..I’ve started early! 😱 

    Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Face, Person, Head, Art, Graphics, Hurricane, StormCould contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Outdoors, Nature, Sea, Water, Atlas, DiagramCould contain: Plot, Chart, Sea, Outdoors, Nature, Water, Map, Land, Atlas, DiagramCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors, ArtCould contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Outdoors, Sea, Nature, WaterCould contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

    Keep your eye on th EC control,...the trough to our NW has a slower evolution throwing heights up ahead of it.

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

    WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

    meteociel propose des rubriques météo temps réel, forums, modeles...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    18 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Does anyone want to know what the end of Jan might look like

    well,...the cfs has it nailed😁

    Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, ArtCould contain: Art, Accessories, Pattern, Graphics, Outdoors

    Yes it has…..as close as it gets

     

     BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    30 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    EC OP didn't bring any surprises, so unsurprisingly a lack of interest. However the mean is quite different to our NE

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, MapCould contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Outdoors

    More conductive towards bringing colder air further into Scandi. A better shape to that high.

    Lets keep piling in the cold there.

    Looks dry.😂😂 HNY all.😃

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    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

    To all members Paul and the team wishing you all a very Happy and healthy 2023.

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    Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

    First i must wish all Posters a balanced and very happy new year .As for the weather  ,next week is looking mild and often wet then if some of the models at the longer range come true we are then in with a shot of polar Air with deep areas of low pressure maybe lowering hights to our southeast. Think we'll get a good run of dream 10 dayers then perhaps a sniff of a decent chase .take care all and enjoy your evening , all the best for 2023 cheers 🍻 and sausage baps all round with Stella s of course. 

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    A few cherry picked members of the GFS and GEM again that I'm sure coldies here would love to see happen

    Option 1 - Cold and Dry

    GEM 12z P19

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Modern Art, Art, Outdoors, Nature, GraphicsCould contain: Plot, Chart, Modern Art, Art, Outdoors, Nature

    A nice gentle cold easterly to start off, not a proper beast but I'd take this over what we have right now.

    GFS 06z P29

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Modern Art, ArtCould contain: Modern Art, Art, Plot, Chart

    Very similar to the GEM example above and probably a similar outcome to the above. This and the previous example are the cold, sunny day and cold frosty night options I have.

    Option 2 - Cold and Wintry (Arctic Air)

    GFS 06z P16

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Modern Art, Art, MapCould contain: Plot, Chart, Modern Art, Art

    The first of the cold and wintry options with Arctic sourced air. A good chance here of snow showers in the NE and E.

    GFS 12z P15

    Could contain: Plot, ChartCould contain: Plot, Chart, Modern Art, Art, Map, Outdoors, Face, Person, Head

    The second cold and wintry option with Arctic sourced air. A greater chance of snow here compared with the above with that trough in the North Sea ready to pounce and enhance the snow chances.

    Option 3 -  Battleground UK

    GFS 00z Control

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Modern Art, ArtCould contain: Modern Art, Art, Outdoors, Plot, Chart

    A perfect battleground is setting up here between the Atlantic trying to push fronts in and milder air vs that very cold air just to the east. Which one is going to win and how far can the fronts push in will determine who gets to see snow and how much and depending on which wins the battle will determine if the snow soon thaws if the Atlantic wins or if the snow sticks as the cold air wins and we set up a flow straight from the east and those very cold uppers.

    Option 4 - BEASTERLY

    GFS 18z P15

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, OutdoorsCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Modern Art, Art

    About the nearest example I could find to a beasterly here. Not as good as 28th February 2018 I have to admit as that was quite an extreme example of one but I'd take this watered down version. This is likely to give snow showers to some eastern areas and the coldest temperatures on average. Give me this please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Happy new year all, it's been mostly a joy.... almost 10 years since I signed up I'm sure 2013 wasn't that long ago, I was the baby where did the time go? 

    Anyway, I think next week will be most interesting, a rather pivotal NWP week for rest of winter I'd say. ECM high res will be shortly in the time period of interest. 

    Could contain: Plot, Chart

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    Well folks another day of uninspiring set of output lets hope ECMWF mean is on the money and get shot of those euro heights and give us what we want.  May i wish all membors and staf at netweather a verry happy and peeceful newyear and all those of you have had difficulty thru out this year may 2023 is a easy1 for all of you. Keep up the good work folks and enjoy the weather what ever it may bring.

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