Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[Lukesluckybunch]

Absolutley poor ecm again this morning..no sign of any blocking to the north..and the Azores high moves in later frames!

[Daniel*]

Westerly mobility is clearly struggling here… compare with day 9 from 12z which was quite fluid and brought milder winds to edge of Europe, some parts of Europe are markedly colder. The cold pool is very impressive and strong.
 

Must admit I’m a bit bemused by Luke’s comment! It’s not quite there but it doesn’t seem a million miles away.

[Lukesluckybunch]

21 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m intrigued somewhat this morning viewing ECM 00z -10C isotherm into northern Germany at day 7. The scandi block might be underestimated, there is a substantial cold pool to our northeast. It’s almost like hoping for a miracle but is it as far fetched as we think? These adjustments keep coming and it could suddenly get very interesting. 

Yes that air to the northeast is extremely cold..but it will stay over Scandinavia this is what always happens!

Just now, Daniel* said:

Westerly mobility is clearly struggling here… compare with day 9 from 12z which was quite fluid and brought milder winds to edge of Europe, some parts of Europe are markedly colder. The cold pool is very impressive and strong.
 

Must admit I’m a bit bemused by Luke’s comment! It’s not quite there but it doesn’t seem a million miles away.

Which frames do you think look good?

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yes that air to the northeast is extremely cold..but it will stay over Scandinavia this is what always happens!

Which frames do you think look good?

Never said it look good directly for U.K. it’s not quite there, I don’t much like the word potential but there you go. Anyway I’m off back to bed for an extra hour or two. Happy new year.

Edited January 1, 2023 by Daniel*

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yes that air to the northeast is extremely cold..but it will stay over Scandinavia this is what always happens!

It seems a bit to far north for now granted, and that low over us is too round, let's see how it eventually evolves. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 things wrong the height to northeast is too weak..and too far away to influence our weather,and during the key time 120-144 we don't see the low slide under instead the jet moves southwest -northeast trajectory..we need a northwest southeast movement!

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

2 things wrong the height to northeast is too weak..and too far away to influence our weather,and during the key time 120-144 we don't see the low slide under instead the jet moves southwest -northeast trajectory..we need a northwest southeast movement!

You don’t need to explain…

Just compare with previous t144 it’s more amplified to northeast. Trends can be your friends.

Edited January 1, 2023 by Daniel*

[Mike Poole]

Happy new year, from the far reaches of the GFS run this morning.

Obviously not to be taken seriously at that range, but over the last 48 hours the models have shown an increasing tendency to amplify when the vagaries of each evolution permit, so I’m guessing this is the MJO influence, and we just hope that as the clock ticks down, amplification can occur in a favourable place.  Strat warming still showing, too.

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You don’t need to explain…

Just compare with previous t144 it’s more amplified to northeast. Trends can be your friends.

Yes it is more amplified..but trough too the northwest is the main player here for the uk.not the high to the northeast..that's just my opinion.but your right something could develop in future runs

[KTtom]

Frustratingly close to something very interesting at 120 to 144 range, at one point it looked harder to fail, but we managed it!

Trouble we have now, if we are to get a sudden switch, it needs to happen today, cant believe the models will all be wrong inside 120 hours.  

Edited January 1, 2023 by KTtom

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, KTtom said:

Frustratingly close to somethingnvery interesting at 120 to 144 range, at one point it looked harder to fail, but we managed it!

Trouble we have now, if wemare to get a sudden switch, it needs to happen today, cant believe the models will all be wrong inside 120 hours.  

Exactly

[Duane S.]

7 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Im going tomorrow almost had a spare ticket as my long time friend hadnt messaged me back for 3 days so I had to resort to inviting my gooner friends who actually is now coming .

 

I see your in Paris how was the warmth there today apparently islt was 17c my friend in rouen said crazy!

Really warm here yesterday, felt like Spring. Enjoy your visit (even if it has to be with a, no doubt very smug right now, Gooner ), I’m on my way to the toasty Alps today  

[mulzy]

32 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Absolutley poor ecm again this morning..no sign of any blocking to the north..and the Azores high moves in later frames!

Heights to thew south well advertised in the ensemble suites up to day 12-ish.  The interest happens after day 12 - can we get the lower heights into Europe, the GEFS say yes, the GEM ensembles say yes (though nowhere as good as the GEFS)  Need to see what the eps tell us.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Hope you all had a wonderful Christmas and Santa brought exciting gifts to you

"A big pattern happening between Xmas and New year will be a strengthening Pacific Jet (top of image) this will hone in on California with Atmospheric river conditions likely"

We are seeing those Atmospheric river conditions currently impacting California with historic rainfall amounts and significant Sierra snowfall

"White Christmas % will be highest across West and northwest Scotland then moving along the cold front"

We did indeed have a white Christmas in the areas I mentioned as the cold front turned to snow through Christmas Day evening 

I narrowly missed recording a white Christmas here as the dewpoints were just a smidge too high though nearby towns such as St Andrews had falling snow, though there was a wet snow shower here on boxing day.

'And plenty of signs to be expecting of further wintry outbreaks as December heads to the later stages ^ and especially through the first weeks of Jan"

With 528 dam air frequenting the UK we will continue to see those wintry outbreaks

'Progressing MJO movement through phases 4,5,6&7 over that period'

"weeks 1/2 of Jan with further progression of MJO to phases 6&7"

Matching the next 9 days on the GEFS and GEM ens we see the similarities to phase 5 pattern

 

Superb cam of the Atmospheric river absolutely thumping it with snow

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[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Heights to thew south well advertised in the ensemble suites up to day 12-ish.  The interest happens after day 12 - can we get the lower heights into Europe, the GEFS say yes, the GEM ensembles say yes (though nowhere as good as the GEFS)  Need to see what the eps tell us.

I think it's always been around midmonth we need to look at now..most people realise it's mainly unsettled and mild for the next 2 weeks

[SLEETY]

18 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Frustratingly close to something very interesting at 120 to 144 range, at one point it looked harder to fail, but we managed it!

Trouble we have now, if wemare to get a sudden switch, it needs to happen today, cant believe the models will all be wrong inside 120 hours.  

hopefully the models  have underesimated the strength of the block,and it can build further west.

going to have to happen next 24 hours though or its probably game over.

the position of the uk on the worlds map,means we are normally fighting a (losing) battle  in getting Arctic highs to build back west enough to effect uk.

same problem all the time.So frustrating.!!!!!!

 

Might as well sign out of model watching for at least two weeks,you just know the milder air will win out.

Edited January 1, 2023 by SLEETY

[Lukesluckybunch]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

hopefully the models  have underesimated the strength of the block,and it can build further west.

going to have to happen next 24 hours though or its probably game over.

the position of the uk on the worlds map,means we are normally fighting a (losing) battle  in getting Arctic highs to build back west enough to effect uk.

same problem all the time.So frustrating.!!!!!!

 

Might as well sign out of model watching for at least two weeks,you just know the milder air will win out.

It is very frustrating when you see places like Norway,getting extreme cold in the next few days just across the water!I looked at there forecast for wednesday there expecting persistent snowfall from 10am till midnight! Only we can dream of things like this

[Mike Poole]

This morning’s clusters look like an upgrade to me in the 8-15 day range - although it is worth also noting in passing that in the earliest timeframe most of the borders have flipped from blue to red, indicating the increased strength of the weak block over scandi, which we have seen in recent op runs.  I won’t dwell on the early timeframe, because the op runs are better at that range, so on to T192-T240:

The op is in cluster 2 here, but the strong Atlantic ridge developing by T240 on the majority cluster 1 is definitely an upgrade, not previously seen in this timeframe.  Cluster 3 (11 members) is the one to avoid, with the euro heights stubborn to move on this one, the other 2 they are on the way out.  T264+

No blue (+NAO) border in sight!  Cluster 1 looks on the cusp, with a big block to the NE. Cluster 2 is also blocked but weaker and over UK.  Cluster3 tends -NAO with a big block back over Greenland.  We’ll take all you’ve got of those, please.

[nick sussex]

Happy New Year 

Unfortunately for the main models it’s a different year but same model dirge !

Barring the ECM op which seems intent on trying to tease with the deep cold to the ne much closer than the rest , the weak Scandi high gets blasted away by the raging Atlantic .

Its really a case of the problematic phasing with shortwave energy near the UK which is highlighted by the rest of the outputs . The ECM just about manages to absorb a shortwave into the main troughing but even then the weak block doesn’t have enough ammunition to fight back and the trough disruption happens too far west .

The ICON tries to rally the troops and is a slightly different take on proceedings , it holds back the upstream troughing and ejects another shortwave east . Dare I say it holds a little potential .

If no New Years Day Miracle occurs then after the Scandi high departs, the models try and develop a PM flow .

I’ll indulge the ECM and ICON for a few more hours but in a nutshell unless the other models  either have no phasing with those shortwaves near the UK or can more easily absorb them as in the ECM op then it might be a case of watching the fish freeze off the Norwegian coast .

Even with the ECM tease it’s still a near miss ( goal keeper has to make a save ) rather than a penalty hoofed over the bar but let’s see whether there’s any more mileage today .

 

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by nick sussex

[TEITS]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Frustratingly close to something very interesting at 120 to 144 range, at one point it looked harder to fail, but we managed it!

Trouble we have now, if we are to get a sudden switch, it needs to happen today, cant believe the models will all be wrong inside 120 hours.  

Happy New Year everyone. Glad to see the back of what was yet another dreadful year for me.

Onto the models and I must admit I didn't think the Scandi HP would have much influence yet and still think a cool W,ly becomes a colder NW/N,ly by mid month. However I am left wondering now because the Scandi HP does seem to becoming more of an influence. I don't agree it needs to happen today. In situations like this the blocking to our NE can continue to become progressively more of an influence well inside +120.

[Marting]

14 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Happy New Year everyone. Glad to see the back of what was yet another dreadful year for me.

Onto the models and I must admit I didn't think the Scandi HP would have much influence yet and still think a cool W,ly becomes a colder NW/N,ly by mid month. However I am left wondering now because the Scandi HP does seem to becoming more of an influence. I don't agree it needs to happen today. In situations like this the blocking to our NE can continue to become progressively more of an influence well inside +120.

I would agree on the recurrent potential as when you look at the individual GEFS out in to the far reaches there are growing signs of easterly blocking, a trend or a flash, we will see.

Martin

[Singularity]

MJO looks to reach phase 7 by this weekend but with uncertain amplitude, EPS much keener than GEFS in that regard.

Seems we will after all see some significant influence on the weather patterns by Thu with a high manifesting over Scandinavia, but the timing relative to the AAM cycle, along with lower stratospheric polar vortex status, is not conducive to a sufficiently weak zonal flow across the Atlantic for cold air to reach the UK directly.

We could feasibly see a bit drawn around the N flank of a low breaking away from the Atlantic trough akin to yesterday’s GFS 06z but it’s a long shot.

AAM changes will become more conducive to a slower, south-shifted polar jet during week 2, hence the ensemble modelling suggesting such things despite the MJO becoming indistinct.

[KTtom]

40 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Happy New Year everyone. Glad to see the back of what was yet another dreadful year for me.

Onto the models and I must admit I didn't think the Scandi HP would have much influence yet and still think a cool W,ly becomes a colder NW/N,ly by mid month. However I am left wondering now because the Scandi HP does seem to becoming more of an influence. I don't agree it needs to happen today. In situations like this the blocking to our NE can continue to become progressively more of an influence well inside +120.

Glad its not just me to be happy to get the last year resigned to history!

Personally, Im thinking rather than a strengthening of the heights around scandinavia its a weakening of that energy south west of Greenland ill be looking for, it just ejects a low at 120 which wipes away any heights tring to build.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Singularity said:

MJO looks to reach phase 7 by this weekend but with uncertain amplitude, EPS much keener than GEFS in that regard.

Seems we will after all see some significant influence on the weather patterns by Thu with a high manifesting over Scandinavia, but the timing relative to the AAM cycle, along with lower stratospheric polar vortex status, is not conducive to a sufficiently weak zonal flow across the Atlantic for cold air to reach the UK directly.

We could feasibly see a bit drawn around the N flank of a low breaking away from the Atlantic trough akin to yesterday’s GFS 06z but it’s a long shot.

AAM changes will become more conducive to a slower, south-shifted polar jet during week 2, hence the ensemble modelling suggesting such things despite the MJO becoming indistinct.

Thanks for the update flooding is going to be an issue for many if this Atlantic dominated weather doesn't relent soon.

EC clusters look good beyond day 10 so there is that straw to clutch this morning,problem with that straw is we need it to count down !

We've got to somehow lose the Euro Heights - eagerly hoping for a change of emphasis from Exeter mid to longer term ..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Any output that shows a trough dropping NNW to SSE over us from say 10-15 Jan has my backing. Here’s my favourite ensemble member

if only!!!

Personally I think pM is the most likely for while but with an increasing reduction of any tM air getting in the mix.  That HP that’s trying to build to our NE is interesting for sure and the cold pooling…and as some have said it can sometimes be around for a while then slowly play its hand 

 

BFTP

Edited January 1, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST