Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond

[bluearmy]

interesting to see icon throwing out a trough extension rather than powering through 

interesting to see the blocking to the ne becoming more relevant as we tick down 

you’d say that we can’t get back to an undercutting set up at this point based on experience and the recent and forecast strength of the euro heights.  But I wouldn’t discount it completely because as others have mused, these cold blocks are usually poorly modelled 

 

[minus10]

Well good morning and happy new year to you all...a wet one here with 25mm of rain  in the last day or so..

.....ahh so close from the ne on the ecm0z this morning..

...however inevitably pressure from the west and the azores..

..have seen worst gfes though..

...more pm shots..

Onward to the 6z...

Thanks to all the posters on this forum, very entertaining , informative and supportive...lets hope for a better 2023 and full of interesting weather....

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Morning all and a Very happy, healthy, and wealthy new to everyone. Maybe good news for folks with a little bit of altitude in the days ahead  ,with some wintry stuff, but as far as anything really wintry, it's going to be a case of sitting and waiting. Cannot see any change at least to mid month, with Atlantic driven weather although a few shots of rPM air as winds veer at times to a northwesterly. 

[Day 10]

Happy New Year All

Here's to a blustery January, bitter February and a snowy breakdown March!

[Summer8906]

19 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Morning all and a Very happy, healthy, and wealthy new to everyone. Maybe good news for folks with a little bit of altitude in the days ahead  ,with some wintry stuff, but as far as anything really wintry, it's going to be a case of sitting and waiting. Cannot see any change at least to mid month, with Atlantic driven weather although a few shots of rPM air as winds veer at times to a northwesterly. 

Surely a NW-ly would be genuine PM rather than rPm?

Mind you the GFS 00Z is pretty rubbish on the whole, it seems to have watered down that promised NW-ly outbreak around the 9th/10th.

Now the next interesting outbreak is around 15th/16th it seems.

Edited January 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[EML Network]

Oh so long it's been since I posted on here.

 

A very prosperous 2023 to each and every one.

From what Ive seen (And despite not posting on here for years...I check the charts religiously every single day)...Temporary cold incursions from the North West is likely to be the best chance of seeing snow falling for some of us.

Seems that we are locked into a full Atlantic onslaught but there are signs of that weakening IMO as we head through Mid January.

 

What I am finding interesting this season is the lack of the Polar Vortex dropping this side of the Atlantic and ive not seen any signs of Height Rises over Scandinavia..

can anyone remember the last time we had an easterly feed ? 

 

Im sure there are factors behind that, which im not educated enough to comment on.

 

But I had snow on the ground IMBY for 5 full days this winter already which is the best its been here since 2013 so I can't complain.

Just have to sit out the next 10 days I think and see if there's any weakening or disconnect of the jetstream before we can start looking forward to the next opportunity.

 

 

[Summer8906]

19 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Happy New Year All

Here's to a blustery January, bitter February and a snowy breakdown March!

Let's have the cold and snow early rather than late!

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Summer8906

[Derecho]

Happy New Year everyone!

Very cold EC over Scandi this morning and the GFS 06z ensemble is going for colder weather there too, compare the 18z mean to the 06z mean at the same time:

Of course that doesn't mean cold here but I think having cold in Scandi really increases the possibility of something later on if we can't get a surprise now. Quite a turnaround upstream.

[minus10]

More of the same on gfs6z...t192 trough with a lot of cold rain and maybe some sleet..

...still signs in fi of a disruption of the atlantic train..t300

artic high to the ne and a push of heights from sw...

T372

...

...hp ridge pushing up from sw becoming more pronounced with potential ne flow developing ...is this the change resulting from mjo and strat stress...certainly a vortex split showing now .....or is it just typical gfs fi fluff ?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 hour ago, EML Network said:

can anyone remember the last time we had an easterly feed ? 

The beginning of the noteworthy December 2022 spell

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[bluearmy]

We currently have a near record strength spv high up.  looking through the NH profiles for all the eps members in two weeks says that we are not likely to see any coupling effect likely to deliver a strong tpv. 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

We currently have a near record strength spv high up.  looking through the NH profiles for all the eps members in two weeks says that we are not likely to see any coupling effect likely to deliver a strong tpv. 

That's good but the Atlantic sector continues to frustrate...

[MP-R]

22 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

The beginning of the noteworthy December 2022 spell

 

Amazing how it went so wrong so quickly!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Noticed there were an odd few concerned about the thread going widely off topic from the Happy New Year messages in here over the last 12 or so hours. In general circumstances, off topic posts would be moved or terminated - the rules to keep things broadly on topic in the thread would apply. 

It’s just it was approaching and reaching the start of the New Year, let alone it still being the Christmas period. Allowing people to wish everyone a Happy New Year in here (same when we let everyone wish others a Merry Christmas or Happy Easter), was for a bit of light hearted fun. And I think it would have removed any sense of spirit if we were to be tough on those who did the Christmas and New Years messages on the model thread. Plus, this wouldn’t be the only thread it happens on (similar sort of messages in the regional weather chat threads, for example).

You would probably also find it’s the same on some of the busy/main threads on other forums from other sites, where moderators or admins might temporary relax the rules in those threads for people to wish others a Merry Christmas and/or Happy New Year in there.

It might make the relevant information some like to look for on these threads, even at this time of year, more difficult. Though is not something that happens everyday (unless it was Christmas and New Year’s Day everyday, although I guess we wouldn’t permit Christmas and New Year’s Day messages flooding this thread every day ). 

Just my personal opinion anyway, but moderation as I think Eagle Eye brought up in the past can be a subjective role and not always easy to please everyone.  

Gonna now quickly add something model related before someone gets thrown behind bars… The 6 to 10 day 500mb anomaly NOAA chart keeps to a Westerly, Atlantic, pattern for the UK:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Upper flow over the UK from the West with lowest heights over Southern Iceland. Chart does still exhibit some modest heights over the Arctic area extending South into North-Eastern parts of Scandinavia. Heights not significantly above average to suggested proper upper Arctic heights, but some weak heights in that area possible at times, which may put some pressure on Atlantic Low Pressure. Not enough at the moment I feel to alter the pattern much for the UK. Doesn’t overall scream cold or snowy for the UK (away from probably Northern high ground/hills). At least for this 6 to 10 day period, best that could be hoped for is some chilly Polar Maritime type flows from the West or North-West at times. 

Edited January 1, 2023 by DiagonalRedLine
Mistakes

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That's good but the Atlantic sector continues to frustrate...

The indications are that it weakens as week 2 progresses 

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The indications are that it weakens as week 2 progresses 

Thats good too.

How that translates for our soggy Island remains to be seen however.

One step at a time I guess but up to day 10 it all looks depressingly familiar with a very active jet and those Euro Heights still plaguing Winter .

We are seeing evidence of energy managing to drop into Europe but unless we find some kind of ridge in the Atlantic the pattern will just flatten out again.

Hoping for mjo assistance  

[mushymanrob]

33 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

Upper flow over the UK from the West with lowest heights over Southern Iceland. Chart does still exhibit some modest heights over the Arctic area extending South into North-Eastern parts of Scandinavia. Heights not significantly above average to suggested proper upper Arctic heights, but some weak heights in that area possible at times, which may put some pressure on Atlantic Low Pressure. Not enough at the moment I feel to alter the pattern much for the UK. Doesn’t overall scream cold or snowy for the UK (away from probably Northern high ground/hills). At least for this 6 to 10 day period, best that could be hoped for is some chilly Polar Maritime type flows from the West or North-West at times. 

Id suggest that Polar Maritime incursions are likely to increase after next weekend as the mean upper trough drifts to our Northeast. And note the 528 DAM contour touches Northern Scotland throughout these runs, a Northwesterly between systems would see that extend further South at times.   To me, this smacks of early 1984 when a run of PM air produced a lot of temporary snow from showers mainly for the North and West. Some very large accumulations over parts of the northwest were realised. Overall, these charts to me suggest a very mobile, unsettled spell becoming colder unsettled.
 

[CoventryWeather]

Icon looks good this morning - much more dominant high over Scandi. Does anyone know how well it handles these situations? 

Still think there are still changes expected for that Scandi high - could there be another push west later? Only time will tell. 

Enjoy your day all.

[Marting]

The GEFS from the 06 continue the theme for the potential for an easterly block far out in fantasy land, however a growing trend. Look at the control run as an example and a few other permutations. 
Martin

[Redwood]

Long time lurker. Just wanted to say Happy New Year to you all. Your updates keep me going through a long winter. Still plenty to play for in this winter me thinks.  Hoping for a chilly mid January. 

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, minus10 said:

More of the same on gfs6z...t192 trough with a lot of cold rain and maybe some sleet..

...still signs in fi of a disruption of the atlantic train..t300

artic high to the ne and a push of heights from sw...

T372

...

...hp ridge pushing up from sw becoming more pronounced with potential ne flow developing ...is this the change resulting from mjo and strat stress...certainly a vortex split showing now .....or is it just typical gfs fi fluff ?

Could definitely be a lot worse. The conditions at T+0 are so dire that even cold rain would be a significant improvement!

[nick sussex]

Without that strong  PV even a weak surface Scandi high might have been able to cause more trough disruption .

The shortwave to the north does get absorbed in for example todays ECM 00hrs run at T132 hrs.

That shortwave as it phases with the troughing will move nw and become absorbed .

At this point with a more robust Scandi high you’d expect some push sw of that and some trough disruption .

It’s really the issue of just a surface high because of the deep cold that it fails to mount sufficient reserves .

Given the timeframes involved we need to hope the models might not be handling the juggling act as in between the high and trough well .

Its a hard slog to get that correction sw in the pattern but hope springs eternal !

 

Edited January 1, 2023 by nick sussex

[snefnug]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

Its a hard slog to get that correction sw in the pattern but hope springs eternal !

 

Probably will be Spring when it does then.  Happy New Year to all!

[minus10]

25 minutes ago, Marting said:

The GEFS from the 06 continue the theme for the potential for an easterly block far out in fantasy land, however a growing trend. Look at the control run as an example and a few other permutations. 
Martin

Yes...can you call 3 runs a trend?

18z, 0z, 06z...

 

...not perfect by any means but a signal perhaps for a cooling...?

Edited January 1, 2023 by minus10

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes...can you call 3 runs a trend?

18z, 0z, 06z...

 

...not perfect by any means but a signal perhaps for a cooling...?

 

Horrid 06 GEFS.