2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat

[matty40s]

Weve already had several events in early January, with considerable loss of life and property, Louisiana, Alabama, Georgia and Texas worst hit so far.

Today sees another potential outbreak .

 

[matty40s]

Simon Brewer out there in Ohio with a livestream 

 

[matty40s]

Bust called.

 

[Eagle Eye]

Tomorrow looking strong right now..

"...Middle and upper TX Coast - Daytime... Rain and elevated storms will rapidly expand across central TX during the day, with intensification occurring over south-central into southeast TX as the warm sector develops northward. Storms are forecast to become severe after 18Z along the cold front, and warm front intersection where a surface low will develop. Here, dewpoints are expected to be sufficient for surface-based storm inflow, with MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. Shear profiles will be extreme, with effective SRH over 500 m2/s2 and near 800 m2/s2 along the warm front south of the Houston area. Supercells will be likely along the developing line of storms near the cold front, and a favored area for strong tornadoes will be as this lift intersects the warm front. Heating is unlikely given the early moisture return and saturated boundary layer, but the extreme shear warrants an outlook for isolated strong tornadoes.

...Southern LA...MS...AL...FL Panhandle - Evening and Overnight... A squall line is forecast to move across the Sabine River around 00Z, progressing across LA and into MS through 06Z. The degree of severe risk will be closely tied to boundary-layer destabilization, and southern parts of the line across southern LA may weaken with time. Damaging winds appear most likely with much of the line, but southern parts of the line will have better access to more unstable air, with conditional tornado risk. SBCAPE will eventually exceed 500 J/kg, with extreme SRH of 400-800 m2/s2 coincident with positive SBCAPE."

[Gray-Wolf]

Outbreak ongoing in Louisiana

[WeatherArc]

Watching this event closely, possible severe weather outbreak for Wednesday into Thursday. This does have the potential to be quite high-end but need to see what the CAMS make of it, still some questions around capping and the strength of the LLJ.

 

 

[MikeUpjohn]

Another 15% risk gone in for Wednesday 22nd now too. Seems to be an almost weekly occurrence. I wonder if we are stumbling into an active year for bigger events?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Looks like it overrode that CAP which probably increased its intensity I would imagine like the storms on loaded gun days that are more severe than standard

 

[matty40s]

 

[WeatherArc]

12Z NAM for thursday 

Interesting that the threat is so much more to the west than the ECMWF and GFS runs (although GFS has started to trend slower)

Wouldn't be surprised to see the 30% bumped to the west tomorrow, the SPC may even decide to go with a day 3 moderate with this, although uncertainty's with how quickly the trough ejection takes place may prevent them from doing so.

Nevertheless, wording is very strong with this event-mentioning all severe hazards as well as strong tornadoes.

Still a few details to resolve (such as the cap and storm mode) which may help/hinder this event.

 

 

[matty40s]

Now...

 

[matty40s]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Busy 3 days begins

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Methuselah]

I just I'd pop this link here, what with the upcoming US tornado season: 

Watch Earthstorm | Netflix Official Site

WWW.NETFLIX.COM

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Storm chasers, survivors and first responders recount their harrowing experiences with volcanoes, tornadoes, hurricanes and earthquakes.

And that's why I don't go storm-chasing -- I can't afford enough pairs of brown trousers! 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

CAP has broken and first tor already been on the ground 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Interesting setup for today usually with these super deep lows that automatically injects more spin into the atmosphere, I wouldn't be shocked if there are a few big tors probably highest odds near Kentucky

[Eagle Eye]

Massive tornado hit Rolling Fork

 

 

 

 

 

 

[WillinGlossop]

In Bay Saint Louis MS on holiday atm… just seen this on weather channel… some big storms Sunday here maybe… 

Hope peeps ok sounds bad in Rolling Fork 

[Raindrops]

Multiple Tornados touching down, one very destructive wedge Tornado from chase reports, Reed Timmer brought casualties to a hospital.

Storm Chaser Brandon Copic

Reed Timmer

 

[Eagle Eye]

 

 

 

One of the worst days in a long long time with two violent tornado's likely. One possibly tracking about 80+ miles apparently. Not entirely sure whether it was the same in-built Supercell or not (e.g. an occlusion like Mayfield was) but looks like it was a Supercell to the south. Look like it hit Amory at full strength and Smithville at mear full strength.

That kind of vorticity current (non streamwise) was also seen in Mayfield and wonder whether or not it assists the inflow into a Supercell.

Even Alabama got hit by one as well

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

At least 23 killed as tornado rips through Mississippi - BBC News

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The US state is waking up to devastation after storms brought high winds and golf ball-sized hailstones.

 

 

[Metwatch]

Aftermath is heart breaking, only thankful these don't occur in the UK. 

[Sanserit]

4 hours ago, Metwatch said:

Aftermath is heart breaking, only thankful these don't occur in the UK. 

Absolutely heartbreaking! The force behind that tornado to lift two artics and dump them both on a building is beyond believable. I think it must be so much worse for those living in the tornado belts to face these events during the hours of darkness than any of us can ever imagine.

[smichling]

16 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

 

 

 

One of the worst days in a long long time with two violent tornado's likely. One possibly tracking about 80+ miles apparently. Not entirely sure whether it was the same in-built Supercell or not (e.g. an occlusion like Mayfield was) but looks like it was a Supercell to the south. Look like it hit Amory at full strength and Smithville at mear full strength.

That kind of vorticity current (non streamwise) was also seen in Mayfield and wonder whether or not it assists the inflow into a Supercell.

Even Alabama got hit by one as well

 

 

To answer about track length etc... From what I could see from radar as it evolved, it looks like 3 tornadoes formed from the storm, the first hit Rolling Fork, cycled down and then came back as the second, into Amory. The third followed about half an hour behind in a separate circulation and tracked a similar path to the SW of Amory, thankfully it doesn't look like it was too strong as I can't imagine what back to back large tornadoes would do in that quick succession. 

The radar grabs from the Amory tornado are insane, but funnily the Rolling Fork tornado looks to have inflicted much worse damage (not that that one looked weak!) Most likely the Rolling Fork tornado will get an EF4 rating, but the EF5 is certainly being talked about (I'm in Norman Oklahoma for reference)