2023 Tornado Events, Outbreaks and Chat

[WeatherArc]

From the SPCs morning outlook " Two relative concentrations of particularly intense and destructive tornado potential are apparent but still with enough uncertainties attached to preclude unconditional categorical upgrade(s) at this outlook cycle." Surprised they are even considering a high tbh, the potential is there for long track and destructive tornadoes but still so many uncertainty's with that cap and how the mixing out of dew points will affect buoyancy/the strength of the EML. I havent looked at the morning observed soundings but my guess is that cap may not be as strong as forecast by models. Very interested in how today will play out-either a complete bust or violent wedges.

  

Had a quick look at Mesoscale Analysis, absolutely no cap in place in around 4-6 hours, 4000+ j/kg of cape as well. 

Absolutely no cloud cover over central Missouri, interested if this will either lead to greater instability or the mixing out of dew points. 

13z RAP still shows a favourable environment, will all depend if storms can get rooted before that surface inversion comes in.

13z HRRR along the warm front is just insane, look at those STP values 

 

Havent looked at the southern mode but im not liking the mention of nighttime tornadoes, defo a day to be weather aware if you live in the Midwest/Ohio valley.

A very interesting setup with a very high ceiling yet a very low floor.

 

Edited April 4, 2023 by WeatherArc

[nsrobins]

Mesoscale trends look favorable for a couple of discrete supercells in far NE MO, initiating at around 22Z and tracking NE in an environment supporting top end SRH. The last two HRRR runs on simulated has a tornadic cell initiating around Edina, MO and moving towards Burlington, IL by 00Z. DPs already approaching 66F into central MO now. The current activity should be monitored for an OFB further enhancing the vectors.

The nocturnal risk into AR later is also looking serious and might well end up as the headline maker.

[toggerob]

Tornadoes beginning to form, and Chris Hall (no relation to Ryan) has had his windshield blown-out by large hail.

Edited April 5, 2023 by SNOW_JOKE

[Metwatch]

And we're off

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, matty40s said:

 

Typical pre-Ozarks setup though still slightly low-end given the time of year. If this becomes the next repeating pattern and lasts till May like the month long Dixie pattern then this could be quite a tornado producing year in my opinion. So far it appears to be the year of repeating areas where not all of them make sense for the time of year. Wonder whether someone has worked out whether this is something that can be attributed to the ENSO state? 

[matty40s]

2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

Typical pre-Ozarks setup though still slightly low-end given the time of year. If this becomes the next repeating pattern and lasts till May like the month long Dixie pattern then this could be quite a tornado producing year in my opinion. So far it appears to be the year of repeating areas where not all of them make sense for the time of year. Wonder whether someone has worked out whether this is something that can be attributed to the ENSO state? 

It certainly seems to be tending to a top end tornado year, I havnt seen such a continuous early year spate from January onwards as we have had.

Let's see where it takes us.

[matty40s]

 

[WeatherArc]

Will try to make a post about Friday night when the HRRR comes out but its not looking great at the moment tbh, the trough just isnt well timed and without the forcing nothings getting through that cap. Saturday does look much better imo but will have to wait for CAMS. I did want to mention that the GFS is showing an interesting system (potential next severe weather maker) right at the end of its runs. It seems to have some consistency in showing a large trough moving through between the 24th-27th with the potential for a multi-day outbreak in portions of and Oklahoma, very far out so difficult to say how bad it could be (or if it will even happen) but have my eye on it.

 

[WeatherArc]

That system on the GFS is really starting to look interesting, its been brought forward to around the 21st and now has the support of most other models such as the euro  (although the positioning of the trough and how it ejects are still questionable)

Will have to see how it evolves over the coming days, im still a little uncertain with how/if the cap breaks.

 

Very good moisture return gets at least 65+ dewpoints into Oklahoma and southern Kansas and the EHI is completely off the scale.

 

Wind profiles are also very impressive especially when coupled with 3000+ j/kg of cape, some parts of Oklahoma are reaching around 4000 j/kg, interesting when you consider that these low-res models tend to under do instability. 

The left sounding is from just north of the Kan-Ok border just south of Wichita. The right sounding is from Moore, Oklahoma just south of Oklahoma city.

Very powerful surface low, winds of around 40-50 kts across most of the target area.

There is a capping inversion over most of the target area but its not particularly strong, forcing from the dryline/ any shortwaves that move through may be enough to get storms through it, the only real concern with capping is that it seems to increase by 03z, storms may be powerful enough to overcome it but its difficult to know right now.

Lapse rates will be decent so hopefully they can help punch through that cap when combined with the high cape values.

But who knows, its still 7 days out we could see this thing swing either way it could either be like today in OK (cap bust) or the next large, high end outbreak.

Apologies for such a long post on just one GFS run for an event still 7 days away   but just wanted to post my initial thoughts on this thing. 

Have just seen the SPC has issued a 15% for the day before (Thursday) so wont be surprised to see a 15% for Friday tomorrow unless something drastic happens with the model outputs today.

 

Edit

Oh boy, I Was wondering if this analog would show up, this is from just a little East of Moore and Norman in Oklahoma, the analog is a match to the infamous 1999 Bridge Creek-Moore F5, just one analog of one run of one model so not looking too much into it but still a little concerning to see will have to watch for it showing up in any other model outputs. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by WeatherArc

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, WeatherArc said:

 

 

The left sounding is from just north of the Kan-Ok border just south of Wichita. The right sounding is from Moore, Oklahoma just south of Oklahoma city.

Very powerful surface low, winds of around 40-50 kts across most of the target area.

There is a capping inversion over most of the target area but its not particularly strong, forcing from the dryline/ any shortwaves that move through may be enough to get storms through it, the only real concern with capping is that it seems to increase by 03z, storms may be powerful enough to overcome it but its difficult to know right now.

That looks very interesting and that's the most anti-hail sounding I've ever seen . Even with very good lapse-rates hail is going to be only a couple cm's big. That is a very good hook as well, typical of an old time Midwest risk. Kansas hasn't had a proper old time style risk for a while yet but maybe that changes this year.

 

Dryline setups haven't been that common recently but a lot of the time they go bang.

[LeeKay/]

LIVE Tornado warning

 

and

Live Storm Chasing

LIVESTORMCHASING.COM

---

Watch live feeds as storm chasers try to see if their target verifies. Tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, and floods - we've got it all and more, live on our site and available as video on demand.

sorry about thr quick copy n paste - its just good and live

 

[WeatherArc]

Looks like the NAM is teasing us again  The big question is will it verify or not.

Yesterdays runs from the GFS weren't great and raised big questions over the timing of the trough and capping issues but it seems to be trying to resolve them, i suspect models arent handling the development of the surface low well, all models agree it will develop in South Eastern Colorado and track across Kansas but the timing is key, any slower and the cap will stop any storms firing.

To the left is yesterdays 06z run from the GFS, to the right todays 06z run, you can see how the dryline has been pulled Westward. The positioning of that surface low and how quickly it ejects to the east is gonna determine the ceiling of this event, if all things go right we could be looking at a classic plains outbreak but if we see the low develop/eject during the overnight hours (anything past 03z) the cap will hold, SPC hasnt issued a 15% for today based on that issue.

 

NAM vs GFS you can really see how they are struggling to resolve the low, may have to wait for HRRR and surface obs on the day.

Very interesting analogs here from the NAM, unlike my earlier post this one does have the analog from the 1999 Bridge creek-Moore F5 (i wouldn't look into it too much this far out) Im still trying to work out the NWS office codes so apologies for any confusion 

 

Nothing to do with the post above but look how much cape was in south western Texas yesterday by the gulf, wonder if we could borrow some to have over here for our summer lmao

 

Edited April 16, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

The first CAM for Wednesday night is out (NAM 3km) incredibly potent atmosphere along the dryline. Still big questions about capping however it definitely doesnt look as prevalent as other models were showing, interesting if it becomes a trend. 

That triple point in southern Kansas looks to be the most favourable area for the cap to break, it also looks like a very high end environment, will have to wait and see what other CAMS show but the 3km cant rule out a violent tornado (if the storms can form and stay rooted to the surface layer) these high cape, low-moderate shear environments can be incredibly conducive for tornado development but we shall see.

Soundings from the triple point area, a bit of contamination but it still shows the very potent environment storms will have if they can be aided to punch through that final bit of the cap. Along the rest of the dryline into Oklahoma im not sure about the threat level, there still is a large cap and without the forcing the triple point has i dont see anything firing tbh.

 

A very interesting setup and one ive missed, its not often you see these kind of days in the plains anymore. 

[Eagle Eye]

Alright well thought I may as well do an extremely in-depth discussion of the conditional threats this week. So here goes;

First we start with the triple-point in Kansas on for Wednesday night and the rest of the risk because it's interesting. Based off the 12Z's.

The NAM shows the very potent dryline setup. With very warm dry air just behind the warm moistened air with the moister air running parallel (ish) to the isobars and more perpendicular towards Kansas therefore becoming much more Baroclinic and that increases the difference in bouyancy between the parcels of air and those surrounding it. Therefore that could be a very interesting area for initiation. Essentially we are looking for kinks in the moistened air or isobares for more unstable bouyant air to be tapped into relative to parcels around it. Making diffuse setups very potent at being a double primed risk hence the double high risk on the 31st March. Something has to act as a trigger mechanism in these highly capped and often inversion dryline setup. Hence why a more discrete mode is favoured among these type of systems. That little hook of moist air along the triple-point therefore becomes the area most likely to reach the convective temperature easily and also break the cap and become primed. Given that shearing advects parallel to cold air slots and I'm assuming dry air slots with a longwave upper trough then the dryline becomes a potent diffuse-like setup with rapid low-level shear strengthening under intensely dry scenarios, however the cap in place over the strong deep-layer shear built in the southern Texas moisture rich zone keeps it from printing Supercells. Further north and shearing is more low-level given the triple point and has a more directional change to it due to being closer to the longwave trough's near surface directional wind change that's out to the west however that can create quite a strong dry slot at likely just above boundary-layer but it stops over-saturation and therefore makes the only issue breaking the CAP which given the amount of bouyancy the atmosphere has here, it should be able to do at some point. So this could be an area of discrete development either on the moisture rich area east of the actual triple point or more classically on the triple point area. So Kansas is certainly an area to watch with a very classical Oklahoma-Kansas outbreak look to the hodographs in the area but CAP being quite a widespread risk. In fact, the hodographs are starting to look quite supportive for hail now with that low-level hook and strong low-level shearing being the only thing stopping it majorly for now. This is one of the very classical dryline setups and therefore could easily fail as well as be very significant.

The Euro showing a similar but much less potent setup in terms of shearing perhaps to do with the strength of the dryline and positioning relative to the longwave trough.

The HRRR perhaps also more in line with the EURO and it might be a trend to go more easterly, these seem to do that.

The 18Z more enthusiastic and seems to setup a northern Iowa triple point instead and Iowa often seems to end up with a triple point somehow even with Tennessee setups it probably has.

Thursday and Friday appear to be more speed deep-layer shear based supporting clusters and semi-discrete Supercells more likely to do wind and hail damage on both of those risks therefore Wednesday currently looks to be most likely the biggest day potentially in terms of tornado potential looking quite classical.

ArkLaTex area;

Then the TexLaMi area, very well known name I know.

[Eagle Eye]

22 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

 

Looks to be more northern Texas towards southern Oklahoma with more parallel flow with slower parcel speeds latching onto the boundary eroding the amount of inversion allowing for discrete hail producing Supercells with the strongest deep-layer shear and weak low-level shear along an area of very strong lapse-rates. Expect the slight risk to be extended towards there or maybe even a conditional enhanced risk. More clustering Supercells along the Nebraska-Iowa area with a conditional tornado and hail threat. The triple point being slightly further north meaning the the time air parcels can spend in the area will be lowered decreasing the chance of the CAP breaking in that area. However, if it does then there's a conditional threat for a strong tornado and hail risk. 

[Eagle Eye]

NAM still showing loaded gun scenario in Kansas yet no other model is.

[emmett garland]

32 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

NAM still showing loaded gun scenario in Kansas yet no other model is.

Reed timmer later on you tube so..

[WeatherArc]

2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

NAM still showing loaded gun scenario in Kansas yet no other model is.

Yup i thought it would of given up by now and joined the HRRR but no its being incredibly stubborn and refusing to shift east,  surface obs are the only thing we can look at now. I would favour the HRRR a little more just because its usually the  better model but the NAM can sometimes surprise. 

Just look at the differences here. pretty insane for just 14 hours out.

This is the latest observed sounding from Blackwell in northern Oklahoma, stout EML in place here. However, it does tell us that the HRRR is under doing moisture advection.

Dont blame many chasers going with the NAM and heading to the triple point in Kansas, if its right today will be a great day to chase especially with hodographs favouring mothership supercells.

Sounding from the triple point (try not to look at the analogs) NAM still the most aggressive when it comes to the tornado threat of today. I will note those surface temps are completely underdone, i would expect atleast low to mid 80s in much of the target area today. Will try to make another post when we get a better picture of satellite data and more NWS offices release soundings. 

 

Edited April 19, 2023 by WeatherArc

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, WeatherArc said:

Yup i thought it would of given up by now and joined the HRRR but no its being incredibly stubborn and refusing to shift east,  surface obs are the only thing we can look at now. I would favour the HRRR a little more just because its usually the  better model but the NAM can sometimes surprise. 

Just look at the differences here. pretty insane for just 14 hours out.

This is the latest observed sounding from Blackwell in northern Oklahoma, stout EML in place here. However, it does tell us that the HRRR is under doing moisture advection.

Dont blame many chasers going with the NAM and heading to the triple point in Kansas, if its right today will be a great day to chase especially with hodographs favouring mothership supercells.

Sounding from the triple point (try not to look at the analogs) NAM still the most aggressive when it comes to the tornado threat of today. I will note those surface temps are completely underdone, i would expect atleast low to mid 80s in much of the target area today. Will try to make another post when we get a better picture of satellite data and more NWS offices release soundings. 

 

Even if the dewpoints are low I think we should look out for a certain gravity wave activity in the area of most aggressive hodos because they're extremely hard to model and can cause initiation and quick de-escalation of the capping inversion. Late evening would be the best time for surface heating to combine with shearing advection and the more veered hodos.

This could be a quite high end day tornado wise given hodos based off purely the NAM. Wonder if there's anyway we can work out the shear advection based off analysis and/or satellite. It is quite possible that the HRRR is being overprogressive with the low-level jet and so the timing of air parcels do not come in the strongest veered profiles. A nearby cold pool could be interesting and realistically, showers out to the west or east could provide a gravity wave enhancment needed to create a local shearing maximum. That's the thing with dryline setups, they tend to be an area of strongest shear parallel to the dryline but gravity waves are few and far between with instead heat flux having to be relied upon. Interestingly with the cold front to the North and the warm front draped to the Northeast there does seem to be a zone of gravity wave enhancement below them extending right towards the Oklahoma area.

Now then, is there anywhere I'm going with this?

Well, I shall try and show you a target zone I around have currently given low-level possible shear enhancement zones.

Here's my analysis and target area but I didn't really factor in capping yet.

[Eagle Eye]

They might pull the 10 sig on the Oklahoma threat I haven't looked into as much but overnight is a very conditional significant risk. Trouble for tornado'a in the North Kansas area is that the storms are likely to be elevated slightly lowering the tornado risk though 1 or 2 may surface based in my opinion especially if they can form right near the dryline boundary. Hail seems to be the main threat at the moment likely to be quite large to very large.

Oklahoma almost at loaded gun level;

"...Western/central OK into western north TX... Storm development is uncertain along the dryline during the late afternoon to early evening, given little in the way of height falls/forcing for ascent, and the presence of a substantial warm-sector cap. Storm initiation will rely on the depth of mixing with surface heating along the dryline, and on parcel residence time in the dryline zone of ascent. Flow in the 850-700 mb layer will be a bit more parallel to the dryline compared to yesterday, which may allow long enough residence times to reach an LFC. If storms form, the environment favors a threat of isolated very large hail with any sustained supercell. During the evening, substantial intensification of the low-level jet and an increase in boundary-layer moisture renders concern for a conditional strong tornado threat after dusk. Overall moisture appears a bit less compared to past nocturnal intense tornado events and confidence is low in whether a supercell or two can become established prior to increasing MLCIN during the late evening. As such, confidence in occurrence/coverage is low, but intensity is conditionally significant."

[WeatherArc]

1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:

They might pull the 10 sig on the Oklahoma threat I haven't looked into as much but overnight is a very conditional significant risk. Trouble for tornado'a in the North Kansas area is that the storms are likely to be elevated slightly lowering the tornado risk though 1 or 2 may surface based in my opinion especially if they can form right near the dryline boundary. Hail seems to be the main threat at the moment likely to be quite large to very large.

Oklahoma almost at loaded gun level;

"...Western/central OK into western north TX... Storm development is uncertain along the dryline during the late afternoon to early evening, given little in the way of height falls/forcing for ascent, and the presence of a substantial warm-sector cap. Storm initiation will rely on the depth of mixing with surface heating along the dryline, and on parcel residence time in the dryline zone of ascent. Flow in the 850-700 mb layer will be a bit more parallel to the dryline compared to yesterday, which may allow long enough residence times to reach an LFC. If storms form, the environment favors a threat of isolated very large hail with any sustained supercell. During the evening, substantial intensification of the low-level jet and an increase in boundary-layer moisture renders concern for a conditional strong tornado threat after dusk. Overall moisture appears a bit less compared to past nocturnal intense tornado events and confidence is low in whether a supercell or two can become established prior to increasing MLCIN during the late evening. As such, confidence in occurrence/coverage is low, but intensity is conditionally significant."

Completely agree, looks like the HRRR has finally joined the party and is firing cells in SW Oklahoma. Lots of agreement from CAMS on atleast firing something on the dryline, if the cell/cells can get organised sig tor threat is 100% there, will just depend on if they can drill through that stable layer building in after dusk. I am a little concerned about how the models are tracking these things into the OKC metro.

[WeatherArc]

19z balloon observed sounding from Norman is in, looks like a classic loaded gun imo. The cap is still there but weakening rapidly. Nice moist layer up to just above 1km with dew points of 64 degrees. Drier than what the NAM was showing but much better than the HRRR. That dry air above the moist layer may be a problem for updrafts but a clustering could help them overcome it. Temps are pretty much in the middle of the NAM and HRRR. The wind profile is also decent with direct southerly's at the surface, will definitely help advect more moisture northward. Satellite is also incredibly interesting, noticing a large cumulus field developing from north Texas into central Oklahoma. Higher up cirrus may be a problem however im not that worried, large gaps in the cloud deck will be enough for surface heating and convection. Still a few fail modes (mixing may be a problem) but a very, very primed atmosphere.

Edited April 19, 2023 by WeatherArc

[WeatherArc]

Here we go!