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February 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

 

CET averages and extremes for February

 

The following data include all CET values from 1981-2022. Warmest 14 in bold type. Middle 14 values italic and coldest 14 are underlined. 

The data have been converted to v2.0 in each case. The ties mentioned are only ties in one decimal, and the actual ranks in the CET v2.0 table are based on second decimal values. After the group at 6.5 C (incl 1995 and 2011), only 1981-2022 values are listed without ranks, until colder than 1.2 when the longer term records are once again mentioned for coldest values. Only 1986 was colder in the recent past. 

 

12.8 ... warmest Feb day (mean temp) 4th Feb 2004

 7.9 ... warmest month of Feb 1779

 7.5 ... second warmest month of Feb 1869

 7.3 ... third warmest month of Feb 1990 

 7.2 ... tied fourth warmest month of Feb 1794, 1998

 7.1 ... tied sixth warmest month of Feb 1903, 1945

 7.0 ... eighth warmest 2002

 6.9 ... tied ninth warmest 1867, 1872, 1961, 2019, 2022

 6.8 ... tied 14th warmest 1739, 1914, 1926

 6.7 ... tied 17th warmest 1702, 1750, 1997

 6.6 ... 20th warmest 1790

 6.5 ... tied 21st warmest 1815, 1918, 19952011

 6.4 ... 2020 (tied with six others at 25th warmest)

 6.3 ... 2014

 6.2 ... 2000, 2017

 6.0 ... 1989

 5.9 ... 2007

 5.6 ... 2008

 5.4 ... 1992, 2004

 5.3 ... 1999, 2021

 5.13 ... warmest 30-year average 1993-2022

 5.1 ... 2016 and 2001-2022 average

 5.0 ... 1991-2020 average (4.96 v2.0, was 4.9 in CET legacy)

 4.9 ... 1988  

 4.8 ... 1982

 4.7 ... 1993

 4.4 ... 1981-2010 average

 4.3 ... 2001, 2005, 2009 and 1971-2000 average (was 4.2 in CET legacy)

 4.2 ... 2015 

 4.1 ... 1901-2000 average (was 4.0 in CET legacy)

 4.0 ... 2012  and mean for 1801-1900

 3.9 ... 2003, 2006 and mean for 1659-2022 (all 364 years) -- 3.91  

 3.8 ... 1961-1990 average (unchanged from CET legacy) and mean for 1701-1800  

 3.6 ... 1987

 3.4 ... 1984

 3.3 ... 2013

 3.2 ... 1994

 3.1 ... 2018

 3.0 ... 1981

 2.9 ... 2010 and mean for 1659-1700

 2.5 ... coldest 30-year mean (1670 to 1699) ((2.55 rounded down (2.547)) and 1996

 2.2 ... 1985

 1.8 ... 1983

 1.6 ... t42nd coldest 1991

 1.3 ... in v2.0, the "missing CET" closest to the median of all months (would be 31st coldest if it happens before anything colder)

 1,2 ... 1755, 1955, 1979 t28 coldest

 1.1 ... also a missing CET

 1.0 ... 1663, 1665, 1670, 1691, 1969 t23rd coldest

 0.9 ... 1845, 1917 t21st coldest

 0.8 ... 1795 (20th coldest)

 0.7 ... 1827 (19th coldest)

 0.6 ... 1853 (18th coldest)

 0.5 ... 1695, 1697, 1698 (t15th coldest)

 0.4 ... 1765, 1785, 1838, 1929 (t11th coldest)

 0.1 ... 1942 (tenth coldest)

 0.0 ... 1692 (ninth coldest)

-0.2 ... 1956 (eighth coldest)

-0.7 ... 1963 (seventh coldest)

-1.0 ... tied fifth coldest month of Feb, 1684 and coldest in recent years 1986

-1.6 ... fourth coldest month of Feb 1740

-1.7 ... third coldest month of Feb 1855

-1.8 ... second coldest month of Feb 1895

-1.9 ... coldest month of Feb 1947

-2.9 ... running CET by 23rd 1855 (!!)

-4.4 ... running CET by 14th 1895 (!!) (was -3.0 tied with 1855 to 22nd)

-6.3 ... coldest week 6-12 Feb 1895

-8.8 ... coldest Feb day (mean temp) 9th Feb 1816

(1947 was like Dec 1890 only the coldest running CET on last day of month; the coldest January 1795 somewhat similar as 1814 colder 10th-24th and again 27th-28th, tied 29th, but 1795 did hold top spot 4th-9th, 25th-26th and 30th-31st). 

Before 1895 (8th-21st) and 1855 (tied 22nd, coldest 23rd-27th), 1956 (1st-4th) and 1830 (5th-7th) held the lead in coldest running Feb CET. The coldest leap year February with daily data was 1956 but 1740 was considerably colder. 

For warmest running Feb CET, it was 1923 (1st-2nd), 2004 (3rd-8th), 1869 from 9th to 22nd, then 1779 led on 24th, was tied with 1869 on 23rd and 25th and took again 26th-28th. As neither were leap years, 1872 had the highest running mean for 1st-29th (6.9 C) but would have been easily beaten out if 1st March of 1869 or 1779 were the 29th of Feb. 

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your forecast in this thread before the end of the day Tuesday 31st January,

or with increasing time penalties before the end of the day Friday 3rd February. Good luck!

______________________________________________________________________________________

 

EWP Precip contest

 

Predict the EWP for February (in mm). Same deadlines as above --

 

Wettest Feb ... ... ... 169.5 mm (2020)

former record was ... ... 158.6 mm (1833)

former recent max was 143.2 mm (1990)

1993-2022 avg ... 74.9 mm 

 

1988-2017 avg ... 73.2 mm (former highest running 30-yr avg which is now 1993-2022)

____ 1922-1951 avg ... 71.9 mm (was a secondary max)

1991-2020 avg ... 72.4 mm

1981-2010 avg ... 66.5 mm

all data 1766-2022 avg 65.7 mm

1777-1806 avg ... 54.3 mm (lowest running 30-yr avg)

___ ___ 1959-1988 avg 60.6 mm (secondary min)

__ recent min ... 13.8 mm (1993)

Driest Feb ... ... ... ... .. 3.6 mm (1891)

____________________________________________________________

2022 _104.4 mm, 2021 _ 78.9 mm, 2020 _169.5 mm, 2019 _ 54.2 mm, 2018 _ 52.8 mm

2017 _ 72.0 mm, 2016 _ 80.0 mm, 2015 _ 59.3 mm, 2014 _136.7 mm, 2013 _ 48.3 mm, 2012 _ 32.1 mm,

2011 _ 81.2 mm, 2010 _ 87.2 mm, 2009 _ 60.9 mm, 2008 _ 40.2 mm, 2007 _111.6 mm, 2006 _ 57.7 mm.

======================================================================

Combine your predictions and edit up to deadline as you wish.

__ Good luck !! __

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

Hi 4.6C and 52mm for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Weather Preferences: In summer, a decent thunderstorm, and hot weather. In winter, snow or gale
  • Location: Basingstoke

3.2C and 33mm.

Anticyclonic to start, then maybe some easterly influence. Perhaps not a full on beast, but something in the way of cold and snow at the end

A very dry month

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
1 hour ago, Don said:

You miserable git! 🤣 🤣

Now now, he's going colder than the 2019-2022 average (which is 6.4!) and four of the previous six (2017 was also 6.2). 2014 also up there, in the last ten Febs there have been five quite warm ones, two rather cold ones, and three close to the new normal which is basically 5.0, so on form alone any guess in the 6-7 range is quite moderate really. You have to figure after 2019 it's only a matter of time before 1779 loses that long-held title. It was only the cool nights in the 2019 warm spell that prevented a transfer then. I have no idea what range my forecast will be in, waiting to see what develops around the hemisphere, anything seems possible at this point. 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
5 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Now now, he's going colder than the 2019-2022 average (which is 6.4!) and four of the previous six (2017 was also 6.2). 2014 also up there, in the last ten Febs there have been five quite warm ones, two rather cold ones, and three close to the new normal which is basically 5.0, so on form alone any guess in the 6-7 range is quite moderate really. You have to figure after 2019 it's only a matter of time before 1779 loses that long-held title. It was only the cool nights in the 2019 warm spell that prevented a transfer then. I have no idea what range my forecast will be in, waiting to see what develops around the hemisphere, anything seems possible at this point. 

Agreed,  them developments 🌪️could suddenly change everything at short notice, so me I’m awaiting to see how things pan out before one’s guess 😉

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Now now, he's going colder than the 2019-2022 average (which is 6.4!) and four of the previous six (2017 was also 6.2). 2014 also up there, in the last ten Febs there have been five quite warm ones, two rather cold ones, and three close to the new normal which is basically 5.0, so on form alone any guess in the 6-7 range is quite moderate really. You have to figure after 2019 it's only a matter of time before 1779 loses that long-held title. It was only the cool nights in the 2019 warm spell that prevented a transfer then. I have no idea what range my forecast will be in, waiting to see what develops around the hemisphere, anything seems possible at this point. 

Surely we are overdue a properly cold February?!

February 2019 also had a cold and wintry start, so if it wasn't for that and the cool nights during the warm spell, the 1779 title would have likely been blasted out of the water!

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

Agreed,  them developments 🌪️could suddenly change everything at short notice, so me I’m awaiting to see how things pan out before one’s guess 😉

I currently haven't a scooby for February either!

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
15 hours ago, Don said:

You miserable git! 🤣 🤣

I can feel a February 2019 in my bones 🤣 also wasn't that after a SSW?  Can't really remember 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

2.7C & 96.2mm please 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 hours ago, Earthshine said:

I can feel a February 2019 in my bones 🤣 also wasn't that after a SSW?  Can't really remember 

Yes it was after a SSW.  However, at least February 2019 had cold and wintry opening days, so a repeat would not be a complete disaster!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

My normal method suggests a bit above average however I’m pretty excited by the MJO and stratosphere so while I reserve the right to bail out and on the cold front this winter has not been shy…

-0.9, 40mm

 

 

 

 

Edited by summer blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

7.4°C and 122.4mm for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
On 21/01/2023 at 09:55, Earthshine said:

I can feel a February 2019 in my bones 🤣 also wasn't that after a SSW?  Can't really remember 

I think there was ES, but its results were somewhat 'unexpected' to say the least! Anywho, in order to maintain my dismal performance so far this year, I'll plump for 7.9C and 85mm!😁

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
42 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think there was ES, but its results were somewhat 'unexpected' to say the least! Anywho, in order to maintain my dismal performance so far this year, I'll plump for 7.9C and 85mm!😁

One of favourite periods of weather that was.  16°C and gin blue skies really helped to shake off those winter blues a month or two early!

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire

6.2 and 80mm, thanks.

I have a feeling that it will be a mild Feb again but at this stage I will sit on the fence regarding rainfall, and go with something slightly above but not much.

I hope I am very wrong though. My preference would be for snow and a screaming easterly until mid month - and then, something milder (but dry and sunny).

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm-by-day sunny thundery summers , short cold snowy winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
19 hours ago, Don said:

Yes it was after a SSW.  However, at least February 2019 had cold and wintry opening days, so a repeat would not be a complete disaster!

A repeat of 2020 would certainly be a disaster, in just about every way. A month with no saving graces whatsoever - after five wet months before it, we certainly didn't need the rainfall! And Feb 2020 was, IIRC, completely dominated by frontal rainfall, too - it didn't even have the out-of-season convective action that 2014 did at times. The worst winter month of any name for me - beating even December 2015.

Edited by Summer8906
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