February 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

This month is a complete bust!

[johncam]

We no longer get an Autumn either , didn't have one frost 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Scorcher]

Turning into a remarkable month here- average max temp of 10.5C at the moment and only 6mm of rain.

Chance of a single figure month for rainfall which is very unusual in this part of the country.

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 20th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[February1978]

Just 0.8mm precipitation here in Tadley so far this month (and some was frost/fog). And 2.2mm in the 5 weeks since Jan 16th.

Looks like that will change tomorrow and we might scrape towards 10mm by month's end....

A

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.3C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall 2.2mm 3.4% of the monthly average.

[damianslaw]

No appreciable rain forecast remainder of the month, away from some north west parts, but even here nothing substantive, will be a dry month for all, possibly one of the driest on record in much of England and Wales. An odd combo as well dry in Feb can often be more attributed to cold, and wet with mild - the last few very mild Februaries were also very wet, aspects of Feb 2008 probably most comparable to this month.

I think the winter overall will be one with anomalous heights over the UK, least stormy on record as well?

Edited February 21, 2023 by damianslaw

[Roger J Smith]

There have been a few mild, dry Febs in the past, warmest Feb 1779 ranks 8th driest (13.5 mm) and Feb 1998 ranks t13 driest (20.4 mm). 1790 also in the top twenty of both (6.5 C, 20.9 mm). 

[Scorcher]

There's been a bit of rain here overnight and this morning- hope Stonyhurst hasn't scuppered a potential top 10 driest February!

[reef]

We're on 2.6mm this month. The previous driest was 1987 with 3.7mm so it's close.

Temperature-wise we're on 7.3C (+2.4C). That would be the second warmest behind 1998 (at 7.9C). It looks like we'll land near to 2019 (6.9C) or 2002 (6.8C) so it'll be in the top 5 warmest.

[Summer Sun]

6.9c to the 21st

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.4C +2.7C above average. Rainfall 3.6mm 5.5% of the monthly average.

Now 2nd driest on record. Day time temperatures should fall for a while. A certain top ten warmest Feb on record though.

[Summer Sun]

6.9c to the 22nd

3.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update _ 10.8 mm to 21st, probably closer to 14 mm after scattered falls yesterday, not much more expected, so looks like about 15 mm. Scoring report is more or less safe now I think. CET _ Hoping the cold doesn't do too much damage to what is no doubt the high point for the month (6.9 as of yesterday), but likely to lose at least 0.1 a day, which would mean 6.3, probably 6.1 or 6.2 most likely now. 

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 23rd

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.4C +2.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Looking at the local forecast suggests that we will be around 6.9C to 7.2C.  No cold nights forecast for us generally average values by day and night. However the local forecast is going for cloud if that breaks especially overnight that could make a big difference.  Still on for the 2nd driest month on record and top two finish temperature wise.

[Norrance]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.8c to the 23rd

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Shame it has gone down a point. Looks like I may have gone a touch too high

[Don]

50 minutes ago, Norrance said:

Shame it has gone down a point. Looks like I may have gone a touch too high

Needs to drop another 1.2C for me to be spot on.  Little chance of that!!

Edited February 24, 2023 by Don

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Norrance said:

Shame it has gone down a point. Looks like I may have gone a touch too high

Average to slightly below average temps expected remainder of the month, which will ensure we don't end up with too notably a high CET value, but still it will be a very mild Feb. I expect we will end up around 6.3 - 6.4 degrees, with a 0.1 degree drop each day rest of the month.

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Average to slightly below average temps expected remainder of the month, which will ensure we don't end up with too notably a high CET value, but still it will be a very mild Feb. I expect we will end up around 6.3 - 6.4 degrees, with a 0.1 degree drop each day rest of the month.

Looks pretty below average really while not massively ECM also showing some frostier night. Think you forget places in midlands/south average double figure maxes by end of the month. A max temperature of 7C is 3C below average, the equivalent of a 4C max in January. 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 7.4C +2.7C above average. Rainfall unchanged at 4.4mm 6.7% of the monthly average.

Average temperatures to the end of the month so looking at 6.9C to 7.2C finishing point for Sheffield.

 

[Scorcher]

12 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Looks pretty below average really while not massively ECM also showing some frostier night. Think you forget places in midlands/south average double figure maxes by end of the month. A max temperature of 7C is 3C below average, the equivalent of a 4C max in January. 

 

In the north it IS only slightly below average at best- so Damian is spot on in his neck of the woods. Looks around 7-8C for most of North West England in the next few days and the average is around 8C for this stage of the month.

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 24th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.8c to the 24th

3.0c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

Surprised CET held at same value last 24 hours, should be a drop tomorrow, but 6.4-6.5 degrees may now be the finishing mark.

[Don]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised CET held at same value last 24 hours, should be a drop tomorrow, but 6.4-6.5 degrees may now be the finishing mark.

Another failed winter!