February 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Thundery wintry showers]

Sorry, I keep forgetting to do this until the first day of the month!  5.7C and 32.7mm please.

Edited February 1, 2023 by Thundery wintry showers

[LetItSnow!]

Some of these cold charts are interesting. If they were to provide at least a cold first-half we could be looking at a topsy-turvy winter akin to 1968/1969 which had a very mild January (milder than 2023) sandwiched between two cold months. Out of interest, @Roger J Smith, how common are winters like this? Cold/mild/cold. It seems like the opposite, a colder January sandwhiched between two mild months is more likely. A tame version of that occured in 2019 and 2022 in the south of England. 

A winter like that of course is determined by whether the cold comes to fruition.

I didn't guess for January so I'll make up for it. I'm going with 3.7C and 36.4mm.

[Roger J Smith]

CET extremes for February (1772-2022) and 1981-2010, 1991-2020 means

____________________________________________________________

This section is fully converted from CET legacy to CET v2.0. 1981-2010 averages were similar anyway, about

two thirds of the daily averages went up by 0.1 but due to rounding the monthly average was still 4.4. Most

daily records are same with minor alterations to values, but 2nd 1923, 6th 1866, and 24th 1846 lost record

highs held in the CET legacy set. Three ties are added or replaced what had been sole records (3rd Feb min was tied).

 

DATE .... MAX (year) .... MIN (year) .. .. 1981-2010 avg, cum to date .... Highest and lowest running CET 

01 Feb ... 11.1 (1923) ... -6.8 (1956) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ... 11.1 (1923) ... ... ... -6.8 (1956)
02 Feb ... 10.9 (2002,04) . -6.6 (1956) ... ... ... ...  4.5 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ... 10.9 (1923) ... ... ... -6.6 (1956)
03 Feb ... 12.2 (2004) ... -5.4 (1841 & 1956) ... .. 4.7 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ...10.8 (2004) ... ... ... -6.2 (1956)
04 Feb ... 12.8 (2004) ... -4.8 (1912) ... ... ... ... ... 5.2 ... ... ... 4.7.... .... ... 11.3 (2004) ... ... ... -5.0 (1956)
05 Feb ... 11.8 (2004) ... -6.3 (1830) ... ... ... ... ... 5.4 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 11.4 (2004) ... ... ... -4.9 (1830)

06 Feb ... 10.3 (2011) ... -7.3 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 5.5 ... ... ... 5.0 .... .... ... 10.9 (2004) ... ... ... -5.1 (1830)
07 Feb ... 10.4 (1869) ... -7.2 (1895,1917) .. ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ... 10.3 (2004) ... ... ... -3.7 (1830)
08 Feb ... 10.7 (1903) ... -8.5 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.9 .... .... ..... 9.6 (1994) ... ... ... -3.7 (1895)
09 Feb ... 11.4 (1831,1903) . -8.8 (1816)*... ... .. 4.0 ... ... ... 4.8 .... .... ..... 9.2 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
10 Feb ... 12.0 (1899) ... -6.6 (1895) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.3 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)

11 Feb ... 11.4 (1939) ... -4.0 (1986) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 9.2 (1869) ... ... ... -4.2 (1895)
12 Feb ... 11.3 (1998) ... -7.7 (1845) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.7 .... .... ..... 8.9 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)
13 Feb ... 11.9 (1998) ... -6.9 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.6 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.4 (1895)
14 Feb ... 10.2 (1794) ... -7.2 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.5 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)
15 Feb ... 11.1 (1958) ... -7.4 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.3 (1895)

16 Feb ... 10.5 (2022) ... -7.2 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.5 .... .... ..... 8.8 (1869) ... ... ... -4.1 (1895)
17 Feb ... 11.3 (1878) ... -7.0 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.7 (1869) ... ... ... -4.0 (1895)
18 Feb ... 11.8 (1945) ... -3.9 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 3.9 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.6 (1869) ... ... ... -3.9 (1895)
19 Feb ... 10.4 (1893) ... -5.0 (1777) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 8.4 (1869) ... ... ... -3.6 (1895)
20 Feb ... 11.3 (1990) ... -6.6 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 3.8 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.3 (1869) ... ... ... -3.5 (1895)

21 Feb ... 11.3 (2019) ... -4.7 (1810) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 8.2 (1869) ... ... ... -3.2 (1895)
22 Feb ... 10.6 (1953) ... -3.3 (1855) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1869) ... ... ... -3.0 (1855&1895) 
23 Feb ... 11.8 (2012) ... -3.5 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... 4.3 ..... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.9 (1855) 
24 Feb ... 11.5 (2021) ... -6.6 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.7 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779) ... ... ... -2.6 (1855) 
25 Feb ... 10.9 (1922) ... -5.1 (1947) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... 4.3 .... .... ..... 7.6 (1779&1869) ..-2.4 (1855) 

26 Feb ... 10.9 (1882) ... -4.7 (1783) ... ... ... ... ... 5.0 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.7 (1779&1869) ..-2.2 (1855)
27 Feb ... 11.5 (1828) ... -2.8 (1929) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.8 (1779) ... ... ... -2.0 (1855&1895&1947) 
28 Feb ... 11.4 (1959) ... -3.8 (1785) ... ... ... ... ... 5.3 ... ... ... 4.4 .... .... ..... 7.9 (1779) ... ... ... -1.9 (1947) (-1.8 1895)

29 Feb ... 12.0 (1960) ... -2.0 (1904) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... 4.8**.. .... ..... 6.9 (1872) ... ... ... -0.2 (1956)

*(1895 was -7.0 on 9th, coldest week in Feb was 6-12 Feb 1895 at --6.3).

** This is the average of seven leap years 1984,88,92,96,2000,04,08 ... but the value for 28th is for all thirty years and does not change for monthly means including the seven leap years. The average of the 23 non leap years was 4.3. 

_________________________________________________________________________________

1991-2020 CET daily averages and running means (in that order for each day)

_ This section has not been converted from CET legacy. The 1991-2020 average was slightly higher (4.96 vs 4.90). That would probably lead to about half of these values being 0.1 higher in CET v2.0 than shown. 

01 __ 4.4 _ 4.4 ____ 06 __ 4.9 _ 4.5 ____ 11 __ 4.5 _ 4.4 ____ 16 __ 5.1 _ 4.6 ____ 21 __ 5.3 _ 4.7 ____ 26 __ 5.7 _ 4.9

02 __ 4.3 _ 4.4 ____ 07 __ 4.4 _ 4.5 ____ 12 __ 5.0 _ 4.5 ____ 17 __ 5.1 _ 4.6 ____ 22 __ 5.3 _ 4.7 ____ 27 __ 5.5 _ 4.9

03 __ 4.3 _ 4.3 ____ 08 __ 4.2 _ 4.5 ____ 13 __ 4.8 _ 4.5 ____ 18 __ 5.0 _ 4.6 ____ 23 __ 5.6 _ 4.7 ____ 28 __ 4.9 _ 4.9*

04 __ 4.3 _ 4.3 ____ 09 __ 4.1 _ 4.4 ____ 14 __ 4.3 _ 4.5 ____ 19 __ 5.0 _ 4.6 ____ 24 __ 5.8 _ 4.8 ____ 29 __ 5.4 _ 4.9*

05 __ 4.8 _ 4.4 ____ 10 __ 4.4 _ 4.4 ____ 15 __ 5.1 _ 4.5 ____ 20 __ 5.0 _ 4.7 ____ 25 __ 5.4 _ 4.8

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

* technical note: these are not the running means for only those years ending on 28th or that were leap years,

they are the same value (end of February running mean, regardless of number of days in month). 

The mean of the eight leap years in the period (1992,96,2000,04,08,12,16,20) was actually 5.00

The mean of the other 22 months of February was 4.86. The mean of all thirty was 4.90. 

If the 22 years that were not leap years used their 1st March values, the average for 29th Feb would be 5.0. 

===========================================================================

 

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Some of these cold charts are interesting. If they were to provide at least a cold first-half we could be looking at a topsy-turvy winter akin to 1968/1969 which had a very mild January (milder than 2023) sandwiched between two cold months. Out of interest, @Roger J Smith, how common are winters like this? Cold/mild/cold. It seems like the opposite, a colder January sandwhiched between two mild months is more likely. A tame version of that occured in 2019 and 2022 in the south of England. 

A winter like that of course is determined by whether the cold comes to fruition.

I didn't guess for January so I'll make up for it. I'm going with 3.7C and 36.4mm.

These are quite rare winters especially if a January above 5.0 is required together with Dec and Feb below 4.0 ... the only ones I found looking back before 1968-69 were 1943-44 (3.5, 5.8, 3.6), 1889-90 (3.3, 5.7, 3.4), the most extreme case 1874-75 (-0.2, 6.4, 2.3). A marginal case was 1707-08 (3.5, 6.0, 4.0). 1681-82 also qualifies (3.0, 6.0, 2.0). 1673-74 was marginal for January but considering it was in the Maunder, probably rather similar to this winter so far (0.5, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0 in March). I noticed looking through the lists that winters with January milder than other months tended to cluster in two or three cases in a row (for example 1968 to 1970). 

1982-83 came quite close to qualifying with 4.1, 6.7, 1.8. 

There are various other cases that don't quite meet the test of under 4, over 5, under 4 ... in particular 1923-24 had 3.8 4.7 3.3, 1901-02 had 3.3 4.7 1.5, and 1764-65 had 2.8 4.8 0.4; and plenty of winters with January milder than other months but either they were all cold or near average or mild, not really fitting the pattern you're seeking. January was mildest winter month in 2005,06,07 and 08. 1899-1900 had 2.2, 4.4, 2.6. So all told, not many cases that really fit cold-mild-cold, quite a few that fit very cold - cold - very cold (see for example 1844-45 and 1784-85, both continued the very cold into March). Also, a long list where January is milder than fairly mild Dec and Feb. Those include 2006-07 and 2007-08 but also 1931-32, 1897-98, 1883-84, 1833-34 and 1795-96, 1735-36. 

[Summer Sun]

7.4c to the 1st

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

7.4c to the 1st

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Another scorchio start to the month!

[Summer Sun]

8.0c to the 2nd

4.2c above the 61 to 90 average
3.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

8.6c to the 3rd

4.8c above the 61 to 90 average
4.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Oh dear.

[Dancerwithwings]

4 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Oh dear.

If the forthcoming 7 day forecast is right…That’ll drop with frosty nights in hand

[Relativistic]

3 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Oh dear.

Feb 2004 was 11.4°C to the 5th (see Roger's post above).

[Roger J Smith]

The lowest end of month CET with 8+ on 3rd was 2.2 in 1985 (from 8.4). The second lowest was 3.6 in 1944 (from 9.2). 1792 had fallen below 4 by 22nd but recovered a bit with a mild finish.

There were only two dozen years with means of 8.0 or higher after three days. Many of them finished in the 5s or 6s. This is the full list showing 2023 in 13th place. Ranks are established partly by second decimals not shown here. (all data v2.0 although several up to 1852 are unchanged from legacy). 

MILD STARTS to FEBRUARY (1772-2023) with CET 3rd, 14th and 28th

Rank ___ Year ___ CET 3rd, 14th, 28th (or 29th)*

_ 01 ____ 2004 ___ 10.8 ____ 8.0 ____ 5.4*

_ 02 ____ 1923 ___ 10.4 ____ 6.5 ____ 5.6

_ 03 ____ 1967 ____ 9.8 ____ 5.0 ____ 5.4

_ 04 ____ 1914 ____ 9.8 ____ 8.1 ____ 6.8

_ 05 ____ 2002 ____ 9.5 ____ 8.2 ____ 7.0

_ 06 ____ 1797 ____ 9.3 ____ 5.2 ____ 4.6

_ 07 ____ 1862 ____ 9.3 ____ 4.7 ____ 5.1 (-2.2 on 8th, later quite mild again)

_ 08 ____ 1944 ____ 9.2 ____ 4.9 ____ 3.6*

_ 09 ____ 1850 ____ 9.1 ____ 6.0 ____ 6.4

_ 10 ____ 2022 ____ 8.9 ____ 6.8 ____ 6.9

_ 11 ____ 1948 ____ 8.7 ____ 7.6 ____ 4.7*

_ 12 ____ 2017 ____ 8.7 ____ 4.6 ____ 6.2 (avg 1.6 9th-11th then very mild avg 10.3 20th-22nd)

_ 13 ____ 2023 ____ 8.6 ____ 

_ 14 ____ 1964 ____ 8.6 ____ 4.7 ____ 4.5 (16th-21st average was +0.7)

_t15 ____ 1801 ____ 8.5 ____ 5.1 ____ 4.8 (subzero 12th-14th, later mild again)

_t15 ____ 2020 ____ 8.5 ____ 6.3 ____ 6.4

_ 17 ____ 1792 ____ 8.5 ____ 7.0 ____ 4.5* (very cold 17th-24th, -4.1 on 21st)

_ 18 ____ 1985 ____ 8.4 ____ 2.1 ____ 2.2 (min running CET 1.0 19th-20th) (subzero 9th-19th, avg -3.8 10th-13th)

_ 19 ____ 1852 ____ 8.4 ____ 5.6 ____ 4.7*

_ 20 ____ 1835 ____ 8.3 ____ 5.8 ____ 5.7

_ 21 ____ 1869 ____ 8.2 ____ 8.8 ____ 7.5

_ 22 ____ 1809 ____ 8.1 ____ 6.1 ____ 5.7

_ 23 ____ 1826 ____ 8.1 ____ 6.1 ____ 6.4

_ 24 ____ 1920 ____ 8.0 ____ 6.3 ____ 6.0*

also these years would fit from 4th or 5th on ...

_ xx ____ 1966 ____ 7.9 ____ 5.3 ____ 5.7 (noted because 3rd only day to 8th below 8.0) (10th-17th avg 1.1 C)

_ xx ____ 1957 ____ 7.8 ____ 7.0 ____ 5.3 (noted because 7.8 2nd-3rd was lower than means 1st, 4th-8th)

_ xx ____ 2000 ____ 7.6 ____ 6.0 ____ 5.6 (noted because 7.6 3rd lowest to 10th with 9.2 1st, 8.2 on 8th)

_ xx ____ 2016 ____ 7.5 ____ 6.0 ____ 5.1 (noted because mean recovered to 7.9 6th and is a recent case)

_ xx ____ 1937 ____ 7.4 ____ 5.8 ____ 5.6 (noted because CET peaked at 8.1 on 4th before starting a slow fall)

 

_________________

note: 1869 was at its low point of 4.8 on 3rd and was 7.8 on 14th, 7.9 on 28th.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

8.3c to the 4th

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average
3.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Weather-history]

Mid January-mid February looks like it is going to be very dry for the EWP, sub 15mm?

 

[SLEETY]

Another mild feb ,mildest ever?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Another mild feb ,mildest ever?

Don’t think it’ll be mildest ever (could challenge it), but in the Springlike category for sure.  Always looked a mild one to me, total flip likely to occur in March…one extreme to another.  Lovely golfing weather ahead for us and superb skiing weather for the Alps….for 2+ weeks.

 

BFTP

Edited February 6, 2023 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

7.4c to the 5th

3.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 7.7C +3.2C above average. Rainfall 0.2mm 0.3% of the monthly average.

[feb1991blizzard]

12 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Mid January-mid February looks like it is going to be very dry for the EWP, sub 15mm?

 

Could be but if it is, at this rate we won't find out until next January.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Another February passes by without being notably cold - it is now 32 years since the last time we had a significantly cold February (1991, at 1.5 CET on legacy series).  On a handful of occasions in more recent times we have been 0.5 to 1*C below the 1961-90 average, in 2010, 2013 and 2018, but there has not been a proper notably cold February (sub 2*C CET) since 1991.  

We are long overdue a proper cold February.  I have looked at the patterns of the earlier parts of winters preceding a really cold February, and it appears that in most cases there has been deep cold air close to the UK for a while, or a significant cold outbreak, in the earlier part of the winter, even if the earlier part of the winter is not continuously cold. 

It appears that it is rare to get a cold February if the earlier part of the winter has not seen much in the way of cold outbreaks, although an exception that I can think of is the cold February of 1983 came after not much in the way of cold outbreaks in the earlier part of the winter, and I wouldn't say that 1990-91 really had much in the way of cold spells in the earlier part of the winter, apart from that it did have quite a cold spell in the first half of December 1990 with a significant snow event from Yorkshire down to the Midlands, though mid to late January 1991 was chilly at the surface though under an anticyclonic block and not proper cold synoptics.

Edited February 6, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[Don]

12 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

It appears that it is rare to get a cold February if the earlier part of the winter has not seen much in the way of cold outbreaks, although an exception that I can think of is the cold February of 1983 came after not much in the way of cold outbreaks in the earlier part of the winter, and I wouldn't say that 1990-91 really had much in the way of cold spells in the earlier part of the winter, apart from that it did have quite a cold spell in the first half of December 1990 with a significant snow event from Yorkshire down to the Midlands, though mid to late January 1991 was chilly at the surface though under an anticyclonic block and not proper cold synoptics.

The earlier part of this winter was cold too, but February doesn't look to be up to much, at least before later in the month.

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 6th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP have returned to action, 1.0 mm so far. They have not yet updated January's total. The newly posted daily amounts say January would have ended up near 96 mm. For this month, the GFS says we would only be at 4-5 mm by the 23rd, very little expected in the next ten days or longer. 

The CET projection appears to be dropping to around 5.5 to 6 C a week from now but then much milder so it could be back around where it is now at some point well into the last third of the month. 

The five driest months of February are 3.6 mm (1891), 8.7 mm (1959), 8.9 mm (1932), 10.2 mm (1921) and 10.3 mm (1821). Very cold 1895 is next at 11.1 mm and 1934 had 11.9 mm. Mildest 1779 was 8th at 13.5 mm. 1997 (13.8) and 1797 (15.3) round out the top ten of dry Febs.

[Weather-history]

20 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

 

It appears that it is rare to get a cold February if the earlier part of the winter has not seen much in the way of cold outbreaks, although an exception that I can think of is the cold February of 1983 came after not much in the way of cold outbreaks in the earlier part of the winter, and I wouldn't say that 1990-91 really had much in the way of cold spells in the earlier part of the winter, apart from that it did have quite a cold spell in the first half of December 1990 with a significant snow event from Yorkshire down to the Midlands, though mid to late January 1991 was chilly at the surface though under an anticyclonic block and not proper cold synoptics.

There were 4 sub 2C CET Februarys that were preceded by +7C Decembers during the Victorian period

1841-42,  1842-43, 1852-53, 1857-58

Also February 1873, December and January was devoid of much wintriness, so much so that a Birmingham tailor gave up and began to flog off their winter clothing just as February 1873 was about to strike. 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Weather-history

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

There were 4 sub 2C CET Februarys that were preceded by +7C Decembers during the Victorian period

1841-42,  1842-43, 1852-53, 1857-58

Also February 1873, December and January was devoid of much wintriness, so much so that a Birmingham tailor gave up and began to flog off their winter clothing just as February 1873 was about to strike. 

Many thanks Kevin for the information - as you rightly put it; those four winters that you quote were a bit like back to front versions of the 2010-11 winter, and where a winter starting with a notably mild December did not preclude a cold February to follow or preclude the rest of the winter in delivering anything cold.  

You may have posted four good examples of notably mild Decembers then turning much colder later in the winter, but this is clearly the most extinct weather pattern in the UK since at least 1988 that I can think of.  There are a few other examples of winters as a whole that I can think of that had significantly mild Decembers but then turned significantly colder, which are 1900-01, 1918-19, 1953-54, 1954-55, and we have certainly not had any winters like this since at least the 1980s that is for sure.

The 1872-73 winter that you mention is interesting in that the January had a very mild first half then a colder second half, then February 1873 was cold.  December 1872 was slightly above average by today's standards, although nowhere near the 7*C CET category.  In some ways winter 1872-73 was a bit similar to a more recent case in 1982-83, where the winter had a cold February after not much going on from a significant cold outbreak perspective in December and January as a whole. 

1872-73 and 1982-83 are among the best examples that I can think of that had a cold February after not much in the way of cold weather in the earlier part of the winter, but those types of winters are few and far between.  Most cold (sub 2*C) Februarys that I can think of, have mostly been preceded by a significant cold outbreak for a while in the first half of winter, even if it is not continuously cold.

Generally in my view, the absence of a significant cold outbreak for a while in the first half of winter does not bode well for a really cold February (sub 2*C CET).

Edited February 7, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast