February 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Many thanks Kevin for the information - as you rightly put it; those four winters that you quote were a bit like back to front versions of the 2010-11 winter, and where a winter starting with a notably mild December did not preclude a cold February to follow or preclude the rest of the winter in delivering anything cold.  

You may have posted four good examples of notably mild Decembers then turning much colder later in the winter, but this is clearly the most extinct weather pattern in the UK since at least 1988 that I can think of.  There are a few other examples of winters as a whole that I can think of that had significantly mild Decembers but then turned significantly colder, which are 1900-01, 1918-19, 1953-54, 1954-55, and we have certainly not had any winters like this since at least the 1980s that is for sure.

The 1872-73 winter that you mention is interesting in that the January had a very mild first half then a colder second half, then February 1873 was cold.  December 1872 was slightly above average by today's standards, although nowhere near the 7*C CET category.  In some ways winter 1872-73 was a bit similar to a more recent case in 1982-83, where the winter had a cold February after not much going on from a significant cold outbreak perspective in December and January as a whole. 

1872-73 and 1982-83 are among the best examples that I can think of that had a cold February after not much in the way of cold weather in the earlier part of the winter, but those types of winters are few and far between.  Most cold (sub 2*C) Februarys that I can think of, have mostly been preceded by a significant cold outbreak for a while in the first half of winter, even if it is not continuously cold.

Generally in my view, the absence of a significant cold outbreak for a while in the first half of winter does not bode well for a really cold February (sub 2*C CET).

Winter 04-05 a rare example of the coldest weather arriving at the tail end of the winter, Jan 2005 was very mild, then we had the cold last third to Feb, but overall it was a near average Feb that year.

Winter 85-86 the classic becoming colder as the winter went on, Dec 85 very mild, Jan 86 close to average, Feb 86 exceptionally cold, admittedly there was a notable cold November. This was fits the bill.

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Winter 04-05 a rare example of the coldest weather arriving at the tail end of the winter, Jan 2005 was very mild, then we had the cold last third to Feb, but overall it was a near average Feb that year.

Winter 85-86 the classic becoming colder as the winter went on, Dec 85 very mild, Jan 86 close to average, Feb 86 exceptionally cold, admittedly there was a notable cold November. This was fits the bill.

I think that in winter 1985-86, the pattern was very flip flop and the cold was "on-off" in the early part of winter, starting early with the coldest November since the 1920s I believe, then at the start of December 1985 it switched to very mild, which lasted for the first three weeks or so of December, then we did have a cold spell from around December 26th 1985 to around January 10th 1986, then it got a bit milder for around another fortnight, before the cold again set in for the last week of Jan 1986, which then developed into the very cold February.

[Roger J Smith]

Late winter cold has no exact pulse or cycle but 5-6 years can be seen as a higher than random component. Thinking 2013, 2018; 1986,91,96; 1963 1969; 1941, 1947 1954,55,56, (1962 1963) ... we are probably "due" to see late winter cold making an appearance but whether it's 2023 or 2024 probably a statistical toss-up. If 1779 is your best analogue however, I think the February warmth stayed around into March that year. 

My guess is that April or May will have the spring cold episode this year, which would tend to continue the 1995-96 evolution that we've seen at times since the hot dry summer. I realize it's not precise or perfect as a match, but broadly speaking there are more similarities than with most other possible analogues. This past summer also resembled 1825 which might argue for a second consecutive scorcher (more like fifth or sixth I suppose, it has been a while since a summer that wasn't at some point quite hot). Here are the CET values for Aug 1825 to May 1826 (most here will know that June to August 1826 was a hot summer like 1976) ... 

Aug 1825 16.3 _ Sep 15.1 _ Oct 10.8 _ Nov 5.2 _ Dec 4.6 _  Jan 0.4 _ Feb 6.4 _ Mar 6.3 _ Apr 8.8 _ May11.2

again, not a perfect match but you do see some resemblance. 

Then if 1825-26 and 1975-76 are to be compared, the sequence for Sep 1975 to May 1976 is

(Aug 1975 18.6) _ Sep 1975 13.4 Oct  9.7 Nov 6.0 Dec 5.0 Jan 1976 5.9 Feb 4.6 Mar 4.8 Apr 8.1 May 12.0

Finally for 1995-96 the means including summer 1996 are as follows; the numbers in brackets are the three-analogue averages (for 1825-26, 1975-76, and 1995-96)

Sep 1995 _ 13.6 (14.1)

Oct 1995 _ 12.8 (11.1)

Nov 1995 _ 7.5 (6.2)

Dec 1995 _ 2.1 (3.9)

Jan 1996 _ 4.3 (3.5)

Feb 1996 _ 2.5 (4.5)

Mar 1996 _ 4.5 (5.2)

Apr 1996 _ 8.6 (8.5)

May 1996 _ 9.2 (10.8)

Jun 1996 _14.4 (16.2)

Jul 1996 _ 16.4 (17.5)

Aug 1996 _16.6 (17.4)

If we add 1.0 to the three-set analogues to account for our re-cent warming trends (trying to keep chocolate teapots out of this), we have this rather remarkable analogue set for Sep-Aug: 

15.1 12.1 7.2 4.9 4.5 5.5 6.2 9.5 11.8 17.2 18.5 18.4 which actually looks more like a call for 2021-22 into the summer. 

anyway I think we're on this multi-year hot summer trail for better or for worse, what happens between this mild Feb and the hot summer is open to speculation and as with 2021, not every spring month has to be a warm one in this sort of climate. 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 7.1C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall 0.2mm 0.3% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

6.2c to the 7th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Not expecting much change in the CET in the days ahead, indeed looking mild overall, not especially so thanks to some cooler nights at times, but we could well still be in the 6s by this time next week, and with nothing cold on the longer term horizon a very mild February looking quite likely, even if we do see a change to something colder later in the month, the damage will have been done. Those forecasts for a front ended winter looking increasingly bang on the money this year.. might March do a big flip I wonder.. I think back to March/April 12 as an example of 2 months that contrasted markedly... 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Interesting….nights have been really cold down south.  I’ve been in Abergavenny and it’s got down to -6c

 

BFTP

[Don]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Interesting….nights have been really cold down south.  I’ve been in Abergavenny and it’s got down to -6c

 

BFTP

Yes, that has been an on/off trend since the mid-January cold snap.

[Don]

24 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Not expecting much change in the CET in the days ahead, indeed looking mild overall, not especially so thanks to some cooler nights at times, but we could well still be in the 6s by this time next week, and with nothing cold on the longer term horizon a very mild February looking quite likely, even if we do see a change to something colder later in the month, the damage will have been done. Those forecasts for a front ended winter looking increasingly bang on the money this year.. might March do a big flip I wonder.. I think back to March/April 12 as an example of 2 months that contrasted markedly... 

Yes, although this winter has been better than last year (not difficult!) and contained lots of frosts, particularly in the south, there is now little to prevent it from being yet another mild season.

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, although this winter has been better than last year (not difficult!) and contained lots of frosts, particularly in the south, there is now little to prevent it from being yet another mild season.

In actual fact this February would only need a CET of 4.3 or below to make winter 2022-23 the coldest winter since 2012-13.  The coldest winter so far since 2012-13 was 2017-18 which had a CET of 4.33 on the legacy series.  2020-21 was not far behind with an overall CET of 4.4 on the legacy series.  If winter 2022-23 could manage to be the coldest winter overall in ten years even though it will not be a particularly cold one, it would certainly put into perspective how poor the UK's winters have been from a cold perspective since 2012-13.

[Optimus Prime]

April 2021 would surely be added to the list for late winter cold. At least in terms of average minimum temperature (much lower than January this year).

May 2021 also felt particularly cold at times.

[Don]

16 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

In actual fact this February would only need a CET of 4.3 or below to make winter 2022-23 the coldest winter since 2012-13.  The coldest winter so far since 2012-13 was 2017-18 which had a CET of 4.33 on the legacy series.  2020-21 was not far behind with an overall CET of 4.4 on the legacy series.  If winter 2022-23 could manage to be the coldest winter overall in ten years even though it will not be a particularly cold one, it would certainly put into perspective how poor the UK's winters have been from a cold perspective since 2012-13.

Think February will finish somewhat above 4.3C now (possibly by 2C) and yes it does put into perspective just how poor winters have been in the last ten years!

[North-Easterly Blast]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Think February will finish somewhat above 4.3C now (possibly by 2C) and yes it does put into perspective just how poor winters have been in the last ten years!

I would say that a February CET finish somewhere in the 5s looks favourite at the moment, and yes we could still see a very mild 6s finish if the month remains devoid of anything remotely cold, but if the SSW predicted in a week or so's time helps something colder to materialize before the end of the month then a final CET in the 4s could be possible.

[Don]

33 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I would say that a February CET finish somewhere in the 5s looks favourite at the moment, and yes we could still see a very mild 6s finish if the month remains devoid of anything remotely cold, but if the SSW predicted in a week or so's time helps something colder to materialize before the end of the month then a final CET in the 4s could be possible.

That would be good, but the SSW would need to provide a QTR if the month is to finish in the 4's.

[North-Easterly Blast]

14 minutes ago, Don said:

That would be good, but the SSW would need to provide a QTR if the month is to finish in the 4's.

At this stage anything from the 4s to the 6s is possible for the final CET, with something in the 5s looking favourite at the moment, which would still be a milder than average winter by 1981-2010 standards, and winter 2022-23 could still even finish above the 1991-2020 average.  This would clearly put into perspective that it looks almost certain that after 2013 the UK entered a "super warm era", and that winters like 2009-10 and 2012-13 and spells like December 2010 are now well and truly consigned to the history books and will never be seen again, and that a winter like 2017-18 or 2020-21 may be regarded as "cold" or even "severe" in the post 2013 super warm era, and the greatest depth of cold that it is now realistically possible to achieve in an UK winter.

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[snowray]

18 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

At this stage anything from the 4s to the 6s is possible for the final CET, with something in the 5s looking favourite at the moment.

Could see a fairly large drop again tomorrow though after last nights cold temps, it's the frosts of course that suppress the CET, and although we might not see any snow, there could certainly be more frosty or at least somewhat cold nights later in the month even if daytime temps go quite high for the time of the year. Short month this one of course.

Anyway It will be interesting to see how much things warm up, will night time temps now recover much, and will it be enough to push the CET significantly back up again. The effects of any SSW will probably not be felt by the end of the month, but we shall see.

Edited February 8, 2023 by snowray

[Don]

16 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

At this stage anything from the 4s to the 6s is possible for the final CET, with something in the 5s looking favourite at the moment, which would still be a milder than average winter by 1981-2010 standards, and winter 2022-23 could still even finish above the 1991-2020 average.  This would clearly put into perspective that it looks almost certain that after 2013 the UK entered a "super christmas pudding", and that winters like 2009-10 and 2012-13 and spells like December 2010 are now well and truly consigned to the history books and will never be seen again, and that a winter like 2017-18 or 2020-21 may be regarded as "cold" or even "severe" in the post 2013 super christmas pudding, and the greatest depth of cold that it is now realistically possible to achieve in an UK winter.

 

Although I agree we entered a period of poor winters in 2013/14, we can't say the likes of 2009/10 and 2012/13 will never be seen again.  2009/10 would be a rare occurrence but 2012/13 overall (discounting March as that's technically spring) was not much below the 61-90 average, so wouldn't take too much to achieve given the right synoptics.

Edited February 8, 2023 by Don

[North-Easterly Blast]

31 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

At this stage anything from the 4s to the 6s is possible for the final CET, with something in the 5s looking favourite at the moment, which would still be a milder than average winter by 1981-2010 standards, and winter 2022-23 could still even finish above the 1991-2020 average.  This would clearly put into perspective that it looks almost certain that after 2013 the UK entered a "super warm era", and that winters like 2009-10 and 2012-13 and spells like December 2010 are now well and truly consigned to the history books and will never be seen again, and that a winter like 2017-18 or 2020-21 may be regarded as "cold" or even "severe" in the post 2013 super warm era, and the greatest depth of cold that it is now realistically possible to achieve in an UK winter.

 

 

15 minutes ago, Don said:

Although I agree we entered a period of poor winters in 2013/14, we can't say the likes of 2009/10 and 2012/13 will never be seen again.  2009/10 would be a rare occurrence but 2012/13 overall (discounting March as that's technically spring) was not much below the 61-90 average, so wouldn't take too much to achieve given the right synoptics.

To me and looks and has also been said a number of times that a winter like 2020-21 or 2017-18 may be regarded as cold or even severe in the post 2013 super warm era, and that getting a colder than average winter (by 1961-90 standards) is no longer realistically possible, and that 2017-18 or 2020-21 may be the new benchmark of the greatest depth of cold now realistically possible in a UK winter.

[Weather-history]

7 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

 

To me and looks and has also been said a number of times that a winter like 2020-21 or 2017-18 may be regarded as cold or even severe in the post 2013 super warm era, and that getting a colder than average winter (by 1961-90 standards) is no longer realistically possible, and that 2017-18 or 2020-21 may be the new benchmark of the greatest depth of cold now realistically possible in a UK winter.

 You made a similar comment 15 years ago.

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

 You made a similar comment 15 years ago.

 

When you look at records, it clearly appears that in 1988 that the UK entered a warm era where cold outbreaks in the winter became much less frequent and generally more short lived than prior to 1988, and in the 1988-2013 era, only 1990-91, 1995-96, 2008-09, 2009-10, December 2010, and 2012-13 brought winters that could reasonably be described as being cold, or having notable potent and long lasting cold spells in them, showing that in the 1988-2013 era, it was still possible to occasionally get significant cold spells or a colder winter overall in the UK.  Other than that, any cold outbreaks in other winters were mostly less potent and relatively short lived, and many winters in the 1988-2013 period were notable for the lack of cold outbreaks in them.

Though since the 2012-13 winter, we appear to have moved into a super warm era, with both the mild winters and the lack of winter cold outbreaks stepping up a gear compared with the 1988-2013 era.  I mean to say that before 2013;

December 2015 style winter warmth or February 2019 style winter warmth was unheard of, and winters like 2013-14, 2019-20 and 2021-22 that notably lacked any even modestly cold outbreak were almost unheard of prior to 2013.

In the last ten years the most "colder winter weather" that the UK has experienced has been relatively short lived potent cold outbreaks, or longer lived rather tame, more moderated cold periods, and it appears that a winter like 2017-18 or 2020-21 (which were a little below the more recent averages but still a little above the older averages) may be regarded as cold or even severe in the post 2013 era and as the new benchmark for a colder winter, and that now and ever since 2013, the sort of cold winters that occurred late in the more modest warm 1988-2013 era, like 2009-10 and 2012-13, and month long lasting severe cold spells like December 2010, may well and truly be now consigned to the history books.

Edited February 9, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[Roger J Smith]

If this was 1739 and not 2023, I could write this ...

"The past decade has seen very few outbreaks of cold, the winters have been several degrees warmer on average than what was normal just a few decades past. We have not had a really severe winter since 1716, just the 1.1 Januaries of 1723 and 1726 and 1.2 in 1729. Since those, we have only had one month below 2 C (1.9 in Jan 1731) and the past seven winters have all been quite mild like this one."

Perhaps I would have gone on to speculate that we wouldn't see any severe cold again. That would have not been a wise statement (1739-40 was a very severe cold winter). And didn't somebody with initials SF famously say around 2006 that we would never have winter months below 3 C ever again?

Never say never. But one time it could be right. You never know which time though. It's a long wait. 

[Summer Sun]

5.5c to the 8th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Optimus Prime]

3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

If this was 1739 and not 2023, I could write this ...

"The past decade has seen very few outbreaks of cold, the winters have been several degrees warmer on average than what was normal just a few decades past. We have not had a really severe winter since 1716, just the 1.1 Januaries of 1723 and 1726 and 1.2 in 1729. Since those, we have only had one month below 2 C (1.9 in Jan 1731) and the past seven winters have all been quite mild like this one."

Perhaps I would have gone on to speculate that we wouldn't see any severe cold again. That would have not been a wise statement (1739-40 was a very severe cold winter). And didn't somebody with initials SF famously say around 2006 that we would never have winter months below 3 C ever again?

Never say never. But one time it could be right. You never know which time though. It's a long wait. 

We're obviously not at the level of warming that can prevent a winter similar to 2010 or even colder. It's ludicrous to make statements like 2012 / 2013 may now be regarded as a very cold winter. It was similar drivel spoken about only 15 years ago.

[Relativistic]

19 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, that has been an on/off trend since the mid-January cold snap.

All winter. There were a few sub-minus-10C nights in the south during December, and many more fell below -5C.

19 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:

April 2021 would surely be added to the list for late winter cold. At least in terms of average minimum temperature (much lower than January this year).

May 2021 also felt particularly cold at times.

Indeed. I saw falling snow in May 2021.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 6.9C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 0.2mm0.3% of the monthly average.