February 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Some daffodils already out where I am and plenty of crocuses.  Despite a more interesting winter this year, it will be another mild one overall.

In reality so far it has been a winter of a very cold 11 days in December, then a very mild four week spell from December 18th to January 14th, then a colder, but nothing overly dramatic, period for ten days, then from January 25th up until now in the second week of February, an average to mild, anticyclonic, uneventful period, with a few night frosts at times, but never anything that cold by day.

[Scorcher]

It's looking like an exceptionally dry first half of the month here. My local weather station has only recorded 1.5mm of rain so far and there is little chance of any rain until midweek at least

It's also been very mild by day with an average max of 9.5C so far. There have been a few cold nights which have brought the overall average down.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.6C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall 0.2mm 0.3% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

5.2c to the 11th

1.4c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

[reef]

6 hours ago, Scorcher said:

It's looking like an exceptionally dry first half of the month here. My local weather station has only recorded 1.5mm of rain so far and there is little chance of any rain until midweek at least

It's also been very mild by day with an average max of 9.5C so far. There have been a few cold nights which have brought the overall average down.

Very similar over this side of the Pennines too, currently very mild with a mean of 6.5C (+1.8C) and mean max of 9.5C. We've had no rain at all. Almost half way through the month and on 0.0mm!

We've actually only had 4.8mm of rain since 14th January and GFS still only shows around 3-4mm by month end. We could be looking at under 10mm of rain for an entire half of the winter at this rate.

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, reef said:

Very similar over this side of the Pennines too, currently very mild with a mean of 6.5C (+1.8C) and mean max of 9.5C. We've had no rain at all. Almost half way through the month and on 0.0mm!

We've actually only had 4.8mm of rain since 14th January and GFS still only shows around 3-4mm by month end. We could be looking at under 10mm of rain for an entire half of the winter at this rate.

Shades of winter 91-92 about this winter so far, there was a cold spell in early-mid Dec 91 but not the same depth as this year, then generally mild until mid to late Jan when there was another cold frosty and dry spell, Feb 92 was dry and very mild.

I think we have bottomed out CET wise, very mild maxima in the days ahead and nights won't be as cold as recently, could easily be in the 6s going into the last week of the month, and even if we see some cold before the month is out, I can't see a finish below 5.5 degrees. 

Rainfall wise this could be one of the driest Februaries on record at this rate, and high pressure dominated by and large. A very trying month for weather enthusiasts. Would not be surprised to see a complete flip in March.

[Don]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Shades of winter 91-92 about this winter so far, there was a cold spell in early-mid Dec 91 but not the same depth as this year, then generally mild until mid to late Jan when there was another cold frosty and dry spell, Feb 92 was dry and very mild.

The cold spell early to mid December was more of the inversion type, but it did produce ice days in the south and rime frosts.  Were we not close to having a very cold easterly in the second half of January but failed and we ended up with just the cold and frosty spell?  I think February 1992 had a cold snap during the second half of the month with some snow in the Midlands?  Temperature wise overall, this winter has been similar to 2001/02 so far.

[Frigid]

46 minutes ago, Don said:

The cold spell early to mid December was more of the inversion type, but it did produce ice days in the south and rime frosts.  Were we not close to having a very cold easterly in the second half of January but failed and we ended up with just the cold and frosty spell?  I think February 1992 had a cold snap during the second half of the month with some snow in the Midlands?  Temperature wise overall, this winter has been similar to 2001/02 so far.

Dec 2001 CET: 3.4C, Dec 2022 CET 3.4C

Jan 2002 CET: 5.5C, Jan 2023 CET 5.2C

Feb 2002 CET: 7.0C, Feb 2023 CET: ?

similarities temp wise with that winter for sure, reminds me how similar the CETs were with Summer 2020 and 2004. Will 2023 be as mild as 2002 though. Hope not

[Don]

2 hours ago, Frigid said:

similarities temp wise with that winter for sure, reminds me how similar the CETs were with Summer 2020 and 2004. Will 2023 be as mild as 2002 though. Hope not

February will need to come in at 7.3C to equal 2001/02 CET wise.  Chances are it probably won't but with the outlook being mild, it's certainly a possibility!

[Summer Sun]

5.4c to the 12th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[johncam]

Latest Met update to 27th gaz it mild so if correct only way is up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.7C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update, 1.7 mm so far, GFS output to end of month no more than 5 mm added to grid average (as low as 2 mm central England). That will come in far below even our driest forecast which means I could score the contest now, except that the EWP has not yet confirmed a final value for January so that scoring remains approximate. 

The CET probably passed its lowest value (5.2) a couple of days ago and will be well into the 6s by next weekend. After that, it may steady out and perhaps drop slightly as days 11-15 (24th to 28th) appear closer to average values around 5 C. Would speculate a finish around 6.2 C from today's numerical guidance. 

[Summer8906]

34 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP update, 1.7 mm so far, GFS output to end of month no more than 5 mm added to grid average (as low as 2 mm central England). That will come in far below even our driest forecast which means I could score the contest now, except that the EWP has not yet confirmed a final value for January so that scoring remains approximate. 

The CET probably passed its lowest value (5.2) a couple of days ago and will be well into the 6s by next weekend. After that, it may steady out and perhaps drop slightly as days 11-15 (24th to 28th) appear closer to average values around 5 C. Would speculate a finish around 6.2 C from today's numerical guidance. 

Certainly seems to be a run of very-to-extremely-mild Februaries recently ,this will be the 4th out of the last 5.

Just like August is often not a true summer month, February is rarely a true winter month these days for temperature - though often is for dullness.

It seems to take a potent northerly or easterly to bring the temperature even slightly below average these days.

Edited February 13, 2023 by Summer8906

[Don]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Just like August is often not a true summer month, February is rarely a true winter month these days for temperature - though often is for dullness.

I think August last year was a true summer month to say the least!!

[Frigid]

2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

Certainly seems to be a run of very-to-extremely-mild Februaries recently ,this will be the 4th out of the last 5.

Just like August is often not a true summer month, February is rarely a true winter month these days for temperature - though often is for dullness.

It seems to take a potent northerly or easterly to bring the temperature even slightly below average these days.

I've noticed this too.. Let's look at the 5 previous February CETs

2018 - 3.1C

2019 - 6.9C

2020 - 6.4C

2021 - 5.3C

2022 - 6.9C

A definite surge in 6C+ February's, with 2019 and 22 on the verge of a 7C month. In the last 10 years, only 2013 and 2018 were below the 91-20 average. That's ridiculous 

This month looks to be very mild as well. Another 6C CET looks likely with outlook not shifting to any cold. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

51 minutes ago, Frigid said:

I've noticed this too.. Let's look at the 5 previous February CETs

2018 - 3.1C

2019 - 6.9C

2020 - 6.4C

2021 - 5.3C

2022 - 6.9C

A definite surge in 6C+ February's, with 2019 and 22 on the verge of a 7C month. In the last 10 years, only 2013 and 2018 were below the 91-20 average. That's ridiculous 

This month looks to be very mild as well. Another 6C CET looks likely with outlook not shifting to any cold. 

Februarys 2013 and 2018 were below the 1961-90 average as well.  February 2015 was in between the 1961-90 and 1971-2000 averages.

It is certainly a true nail in the coffin for cold to think that since the CET record began in 1659, there were about 45 Februarys that had a CET of 6*C and above, but five of those were in the last ten years.  Just over ten years ago, 2011 also saw a very mild February as well (6.4 on legacy, 6.5 revised), so that makes it that six of the 45 6+CET Februarys in the CET record have been in the last 12 years.  Further back, there was a similar run of extremely mild Februarys in the late 1990s to early 2000s, with 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000 and 2002 all having CETs over 6*C, so that means that 11 of the 45 6*C+ Februarys in the CET record have occurred in the last 28 years.  All this is just ridiculous and sickening from a cold perspective.  Something has certainly gone wrong to cause this.  On top of that, we actually went 29 years from 1961 to 1990 without ever seeing a 6*C+ February CET.  I know that in the mid Victorian era there was a notably high number of very mild Februarys for a number of years, but I think that the last 30 odd years have had milder Februarys overall than the mild February period of the mid-Victorian era.

So again we avoid a cold February.  It is now 32 years since we last had a really cold February, in 1991.  On a handful of occasions in recent times we have been 0.5 to 1*C below the 1961-90 average, such as in 2010, 2013 and 2018, and way back in 1996 we got down to 2.5 CET, but there has not been a significantly cold February (CET under 2*C) since 1991.  (32 years ago).  It just makes one ask the question that "Will we ever see a really cold February (CET below 2*C) ever again?"

For one possible answer to this, I looked at the weather patterns of earlier in the winters that had really cold (sub 2*C CET) Februarys in the past, and it appears that the majority of really cold Februarys with CETs below 2*C, had been preceded by a significant cold outbreak for a while in the  December or January before them, with about the only main exception to this that I can think of being 1982-83, now that winter had a cold February following little in the way of significant cold outbreaks earlier in the winter, but it appears that, if there has not been a cold spell for a while in the preceding December or January it appears that the odds are stacked against getting a cold February.

Edited February 13, 2023 by North-Easterly Blast

[mb018538]

10 hours ago, Don said:

I think August last year was a true summer month to say the least!!

Last August was very much needed to restore the faith that it can still be a properly summery month.....it's been so bad for most of the last 20 years, I began to wonder.

CET should shoot upwards this week....for example the forecast CET here over the next 7 days is a shade over 9c. Certainly not cold!

[Summer Sun]

5.6c to the 13th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.7C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer8906]

22 hours ago, Don said:

I think August last year was a true summer month to say the least!!

True, but very much the exception! All other Augusts since 2006 have been "OK" at best (2007, 2009, 2012, 2013, and 2016) but mostly distinctly non-summery.

Edited February 14, 2023 by Summer8906

[damianslaw]

On 12/02/2023 at 22:06, Frigid said:

Dec 2001 CET: 3.4C, Dec 2022 CET 3.4C

Jan 2002 CET: 5.5C, Jan 2023 CET 5.2C

Feb 2002 CET: 7.0C, Feb 2023 CET: ?

similarities temp wise with that winter for sure, reminds me how similar the CETs were with Summer 2020 and 2004. Will 2023 be as mild as 2002 though. Hope not

Hadn't realised how remarkably similiar we are so far to winter 2001-2002, and with more very mild weather on the cards this February, we may well be close to the 7 degree mark, though I think we will come under that by a bit.

However, it has been a different winter to 01/02 conditions wise, Dec 01 brought its coldest conditions later on in the month, it was though very blocked and very sunny and dry, with some snow, and shares some comparison with the first half of Dec. The last 13 days of December this year were very different, very mild and very wet.

Jan 02 began very cold dry and frosty, soon turned wet and mild rest of the month. Jan 23 started very mild but very wet, then flipped mid month to colder and drier, so not very comparable.

I don't recall much of Feb 02 other than it was consistently mild - which could well end up being the case this year, but I think it was much wetter.

Those looking ahead, Spring 02 I don't think was up to much, quite mild, but often unsettled and nothing very wintry.

[Don]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

I don't recall much of Feb 02 other than it was consistently mild - which could well end up being the case this year, but I think it was much wetter.

Those looking ahead, Spring 02 I don't think was up to much, quite mild, but often unsettled and nothing very wintry.

I believe mid January to mid February 2002 was exceptionally mild, but don't know what the CET was for the period.  Spring 2002 was mild with little if any wintry weather.

3 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

True, but very much the exception! All other Augusts since 2006 have been "OK" at best (2007, 2009, 2012, 2013, and 2016) but mostly distinctly non-summery.

Februaries since 1991 have generally been poor and we are surely overdue a genuinely cold month, even in this warming climate?!

[North-Easterly Blast]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

I believe mid January to mid February 2002 was exceptionally mild, but don't know what the CET was for the period.  Spring 2002 was mild with little if any wintry weather.

Mid January to mid February 2002 had a CET of 8.0, which is higher the all time record for each of the calendar months of January and February.  I believe that December 2001 was one of those cool but nothing exciting months - in that it was anticyclonic with frequent frosts but without any real major cold spells - just short lived northerly outbreaks later in the month, although it did become cold in the final few days and this lasted into the opening days of January 2002, before it all went downhill significantly and there was no further cold weather at all for the rest of the winter.

[Summer Sun]

5.6c to the 14th

1.8c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average