February 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.8C +2.2C above average. Rainfall unchanged

[Scorcher]

On 14/02/2023 at 23:32, Don said:

Februaries since 1991 have generally been poor and we are surely overdue a genuinely cold month, even in this warming climate?!

There have been a few stunning mild, sunny ones though- I personally would consider those 'good' months! 1998, 2008 and 2019 all stand out as being very sunny and springlike. 2020 stands out as the very worst though.

[Relativistic]

I would put 2012 in the 'very good' category (at least where I was at the time). Barely above freezing for the first two weeks, with a decent snowfall that stuck around for a week and one or two nights that dropped below -10*C. Then a complete flip to Spring-like warmth for the remainder of the month: sunshine and temperatures up to 15*C on some days. This set the precedent for the infamous March that followed.

A very interesting month overall.

[Summer Sun]

5.7c to the 15th

1.9c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 6.9C +2.3C above normal. Rainfall a whopping 0.8mm 1.2% of the average.

So still a chance of the driest Feb on record. Joint 2nd warmest on record at the moment the next few days should push it firmly into second place. After that who knows. Cool spell on the cards but will it turn up.

[Roger J Smith]

I don't want to keep bumping the January thread (makes it harder to locate next year) but they continue to leave the January EWP in the mystery zone, there are no updates to tables or January trackers after they all stopped on the 28th (EWP and regionals). So I cannot officially close the books on January yet. It may be that they will just update the whole thing at the end of February, hard to imagine it was overlooked but there must be some data issue in the time period 29th to 31st making it impossible to close the books.

As far as this month is concerned, still at the 2.0 mm mark as of 14th, added perhaps 3 mm to that yesterday, and GFS estimates 8-12 mm more by 28th for a grand total of 13-17 mm, lower than all of our forecasts (which makes scoring pretty easy). 

As to CET, about five or six days left for further gains to around 6.7 to 7.0, then back down into the 5.3 to 5.7 range by end of the month, if the colder spell verifies. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.9C +2.3C above normal. Rainfall 1.9mm 2.9% of the monthly total.

[Summer Sun]

5.9c to the 16th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average
1.4c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall 2.2mm 3.4% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

6.3c to the 17th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[reef]

Yesterday came in at 11.3C, which is a joint warmest on record for the 17th with 1878.

[snowray]

Very mild by day and by night at the moments, 14-16c max temps yesterday.

[Roger J Smith]

Update on EWP scoring ... as mentioned, the January EWP remains unconfirmed, but I have added a second possible scoring table to the one already posted, in the January thread, for 97.8 mm which is what the current posted daily numbers add up to produce. Whether that's any more accurate than the 95.1 mm table remains to be seen. This month, it appears that the EWP will come in below all forecasts. I have produced this preliminary total scoring table, with average errors ranked only for 2/3 or 3/3 entrants. This table uses the second version (97.8 mm) for January scoring and errors. February is now scored from 14 mm (revised from previous post using 11 mm). 

Scoring levels: drop by 0.19 from 1st (low error) to 46th (1.45) and by 0.12-0.13 for last 11 (47th to 57th). This is to set 0.06 as lowest scoring level. Wrong side of normal error deductions 0.06 will drop the last ten by that amount. First six errors above 1991-2020 normal drop .01 to .06. 

Because the lowest error (TWS at 32.7 mm) was a late forecast, there is no score of 10.00, that scoring level drops to 9.70 (2nd) with the late penalty, and 33 mm (Summer Shower at second scoring level) 9.81 is high score. Davehsug (35 mm) is third. There were four late forecasts, scores shown with ^ symbols. These all drop 0.30 points and some other forecast moves one rank ahead from the next scoring level. ... Equal forecasts drop roughly half a scoring level (0.10) from the first submitted forecast score. 

(later edit _ On 5th March, JAN confirmed at 97.8 mm, FEB at 16.5 mm. This table has been updated in a later posted version near the end of the thread). 

 

Preliminary EWP scoring update Dec22 - Feb23

Contest _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ______________ _ _ _ _ _  (absolute errors) _ _ _ _ _

 Rank (prev) __ FORECASTER (Feb fcst) _____ Dec, Jan scores _Feb score (rank) __ TOTAL ___ Dec err _Jan err _Feb err___avg (rank) (prev)

_01 __  09 ____ cymro (48.0) ________________ 7.56 ___ 8.68 ____ 8.10 (11) ________24.34 ______ 24.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 34.0 ____ 20.07 _03 __(15)    

_02 __ 04 ____ February1978 (55.0) _________8.33 ___ 9.20 ____ 6.58 (19) ________24.11 ______ 18.0 ____ 1.8 ____ 41.0 ____ 20.27 _04 _ (T6)     

_03 __ 08 ____ Bobd29 (52.0) _______________ 9.48 ___ 6.77 ____ 7.72 (13) _______ 23.97 _______ 8.5 ____ 6.1 ____ 38.0 ____ 17.53 _02 __ ( 4)      

_04 __ 13 ____ Mulzy (40.0) _________________ 8.72 ___ 6.20 ____ 8.76 ( 7)** ______ 23.68 ______16.0 ____ 7.2 ____ 26.0 ____ 16.40 _01 __(12)     

_05 __ 17 ____ Emmett Garland (46.0) ______ 6.54 ___ 7.12 ____ 8.29 (10) ________ 21.95 ______31.0 ____ 5.2 ____ 32.0 ____ 22.73 _05 __(26)   

_06 __ 16 ____ Norrance (53.0) ______________6.33 ___ 7.66  ____ 6.96 (17) ________ 20.95 ______32.0 ____ 2.8 ____ 39.0 ____ 24.60 _09 __(22)    

_07 __ 10 ____ DR(S)NO (65.0) ______________ 8.00 ___ 8.08  ____ 4.68 (29) ________ 20.76 ______ 22.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 51.0 ____ 25.07 _10 _(T13)  

_08 __ 19 ____ seaside60 (52.0) _____________3.28 ____9.90 _____ 7.42 (16) ________20.60 ______ 51.0 ____ 0.2 ____ 38.0 ____ 29.73 _t24 __(34) 

_09 __ 03____ Feb1991Blizzard (70.0) ______ 8.20 ___ 9.36 _____ 2.97 (38) ________ 20.53 ______ 20.0 ____ 1.2 ____ 56.0 ____ 25.73 _12 __ ( 9)   

_10 __ 02____ prolongedSnowLover (74.0) _ 8.56 ___ 9.04 _____ 2.39 (41) ________ 19.99 ______ 17.0 ____ 2.1 ____ 60.0 ____ 26.37 _13 __ ( 5)    

_11 __ 14 ____ Leo97t (64.0) ________________ 8.97 ___ 5.75 _____ 4.87 (28) ________19.59 ______ 12.0 ____ 7.8 ____ 50.0 ____ 23.27 _06 __(T6)   

_12 __ 12 ____ DiagonalRedLine (65.0) ______6.41 ___ 8.58 _____ 4.58 (30) ________19.57 ______ 32.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 51.0 ____ 28.40 _t20 __(21)  

_13 __ 22 ____ Roger J Smith (53.7) _________ 9.34 ____ 2.94 _____ 6.77 (18) _______19.05 ______ 10.0 ____18.6 ____ 39.7 ____ 22.77 _07 __(17)  

_14 __ 01 ____ jonboy (81.0) ________________ 8.04 ___ 9.58 _____ 1.14 (48) ________ 18.76 ______ 22.0 ____ 0.8 ____ 67.0 ____ 29.93 _27 __(11)    

_15 __ 05 ____ summer8906 (80.0) _________ 9.60 ___ 7. 76 _____ 1.26 (47) _______ 18.62 ________ 7.0 ____ 2.8 ____ 66.0 ____ 25.27 _11 __( 3)   

_16 __ 07 ____ Midlands Ice Age (76.0) ______6.84 ___10.00 _____ 1.66 (44)^ ______ 18.50 ______ 27.0 ____ 0.2 ____ 62.0 ____ 29.73 _t24 __(16)  

_17 __ 06 ____ Jeff C (78.0) __________________ 8.08 ___ 8.88 ______ 1.50 (46) _______ 18.46 ______ 22.0 ____ 2.2 ____ 64.0 ____ 29.40 _23 _(T13)  

_18 __ 35 ____ Weather Observer (38.0) ____ 2.75 ____6.94 ______ 8.75 ( 8)^_______ 18.44 ______ 53.0 ____ 5.8 ____ 24.0 ____ 27.60 _17 __(44) 

_19 __ 39 ____ snowray (37.5) ______________ 2.57 ___ 6.36 _______ 9.24 ( 4)** ______18.17 ______ 54.0 ____ 6.8 ____ 23.5 ____ 28.10 _19 _(T46)  

_20 __ 11 ____ virtualsphere (78.0) _________ 5.69 ___ 9.68  ______ 1.60 (45) ________ 16.97 ______ 36.0 ____ 0.8 ____ 64.0 ____ 33.60 _33 __(27)   

 

_21 __ 24 ____ Reef (58.0) ___________________9.28 ___ 1.45 _______ 6.01 (22) ________16.74 ______ 10.0 ___ 25.2 ____ 44.0 ____ 26.40 _14 __(T23)  

_22 __ 48 __Thundery Wintry Showers (32.7) _ 4.36 ___ 2.46 _______ 9.70 ( 2)^ _______16.52 ______ 45.7 ___ 19.3 ____ 18.7 ____ 27.90 _18 __(49)  

_23 __ 33 ____ Polar Gael (56.5) _____________4.88 ___ 4.94 _______ 6.39 (20) ________16.21 ______ 41.8  ___ 10.3 ____ 42.5 ____ 31.53 _30 __(35)  

_24 __ 21 ____ Stationary Front (68.0) ______ 7.69 ___ 5.14 ________3.34 (37) _______ 16.17 ______ 23.0 ____ 9.8 _____ 54.0 ____ 28.93 _22 __(20)  

_25 __ 20 ____  J 10 (70.0) ___________________ 8.59 ___ 4.50 _______ 2.87 (39) ________15.96 ______ 17.0 ___ 12.2 _____ 56.0 ____ 28.40 _t20__(18)

_26 __ 27 ____ noname_weather (60.0) _____3.56 ___ 6.60 ________ 5.53 (25) ________15.69 ______ 49.0 ____ 6.2 _____ 46.0 ____ 33.73 _34 __(40)   

_27 __ 28 ____ freeze (60.0) _________________5.53 ___ 4.60 ________ 5.43 (26) ________15.56 ______ 36.0 ___ 12.2 _____ 46.0 ____ 31.40 _29 __(33) 

_28 __ 15 ____ EdStone (85.0) _______________5.77 ___ 8.78  _______ 0.89 (50) ________15.44 ______ 36.0 ____ 2.2 _____ 71.0 ____ 36.40 _38 __(28)   

_29 __ 36 ____ SteveB (58.0) ________________ 7.18 ___ 2.26  _______ 5.91 (23) ________15.35 ______ 25.0 ___ 22.2 _____ 44.0 ____ 30.40 _28 _(T29)  

_30 __ 34 ____ daniel* (60.0) ________________ 4.24 ___ 5.35 _______ 5.33 (27) ________ 14.92 ______ 46.0 ____ 7.8 _____ 46.0 ____ 33.27 _32 __(36)   

_31 __ 55 ____ Godber1 (44.0) ______________ 1.68 ___ 3.60 ________ 8.48 ( 9) ________ 13.76 ______ 58.0 ___ 14.2 _____ 30.0 ____ 34.07 _35 __(55)  

_32 __ 32 ____ BlastFromThePast (67.0) ____ 1.90 ___ 7.98 ________ 3.73 (34) ________13.61 ______ 57.0 ____ 2.2 _____ 53.0 ____ 37.40 _42 __(45)  

_33 __ 18 ____ Weather26 (107.0) ___________ 9.74 ___ 3.70 _______ 0.13 (56) ________13.57 _______ 6.0 ____ 14.2 ____ 93.0 ____ 37.73 _43 __( 8.)  

_34 __ 49 ____ dancerwithwings (57.0) ______6.03 ___ 0.74 _______ 6.20 (21) ________12.97 ______ 34.0 ____ 33.8 ____ 43.0 ____ 36.93 _t39__(51)  

_35 __ 25 ____ Don (76.0) ___________________ 8.89 ___ 1.81 _______ 2.09 (43) ________12.79 ______ 12.0 ____ 23.2 ____ 62.0 ____ 32.40 _31 __(T23)  

_36 __ 67 ____ davehsug (35.0) _____________ 1.36 ___ 1.63  _______ 9.62 ( 3) ________ 12.61 ______ 58.0 ____ 24.2 ____ 21.0 ____ 34.40 _36 __(61) 

_37 __ 37 ____ Mapantz (68.0) ______________ 1.60 ___ 7.44 _______ 3.44 (36) ________12.48 _______ 58.0 _____ 3.2 ____ 54.0 ____ 38.40 _44 __(48)                  

_38 __ 23 ____ Summer 18 (88.0) ___________ 9.36 ___ 2.36 _______ 0.64 (52) ________12.36 _______ 10.0 ___ 22.2 ____ 74.0 ____ 35.40 _37 __(19)  

_39 __ 42 ____ Wold Topper (65.0) __________ 5.13 ___ 2.54 _______ 4.48 (31) _______ 12.15 _______ 39.0 ___ 21.8 ____ 51.0 ____ 37.27 _41 __(T46) 

_40 __ 40 ____ SLEETY (68.0) ________________ 4.37 ___ 4.14 _______ 3.54 (35) _______ 12.05 _______ 44.0 ___ 12.8 ____ 54.0 ____ 36.93 _t39 __(42) 

_41 __ 44 ____ shillitocettwo (66.0) __________0.27 ___ 7.27 _______ 4.11 (32) ________11.65 _______ 76.0 ____ 3.8 ____ 52.0 ____ 43.93 _52 __(59)                      

_42 __ 26 ____ John88b ( ----) _______________ 3.08 ___ 8.48 _______ --- --- (---) _______ 11.56 _______ 52.0 ____ 2.2 ____ --- --- ____ 27.10 _16 __(38)  

_43 __ 65 ____ Earthshine (50.0) ____________--- ---____3.14 _______ 7.91 (12) _______ 11.05 ______ --- --- ____ 17.8 ____ 36.0 ____ 26.90 _15  __(25) 

_44 __ 58 ____ The PIT (60.0) _________________ 0.92 ___ 4.04 ______ 5.63 (24) ________10.59 ______ 62.0 ____12.8 ____ 46.0 ____ 40.27 _46 __(56)                 

_45 __ 76 ____ Let It Snow! (36.4) ____________ 1.04 ___ -- -- -- _______ 9.13 ( 5)^ ______10.17 ______ 60.3 ____ -- -- _____ 22.4 ____ 41.35 _47 __(77)             

_46 __ 29 ____ DCee ( -- --) __________________ 10.00 ___ -- -- -- ______ --- --- (---) _______ 10.00 _______ 4.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 4.0 -- -- (T1)

_47 __ 30 ____ Robbie Garrett ( -- --) _________ 9.92 ___ -- -- --  ______ --- --- (---) ________ 9.92________ 4.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 4.0 -- -- (T1) 

_48 __ 31 ____ I Remember Atlantic (112.0) _ 6.10 ___ 3.80 _______ --- --- (---) _________ 9.90 ______ 33.0  ___ 14.2 ____ --- --- ____ 23.60 _08 _(T29)

_49 __ 53 ____ rwtwm (66.0) _________________4.75 ___ 1.08 _______ 4.01 (33) _________ 9.84 ______ 44.0 ___ 33.2 ____ 52.0 ____ 43.07 _t50 __(58)                     

_50 __ 82 ____ Summer Shower (33.0) _____ --- --- ___ 0.00 ________ 9.81 ( 1)** _______ 9.81 ______--- --- ___ 58.2 ____ 19.0 ____ 38.60 _45 __(76) 

_51 __ 38 ____ Summer Blizzard (85.0) ______3.64 ___ 5.34 ________ 0.79 (51) ________ 9.77 ______ 49.0 ____ 8.8 _____ 71,0 ____ 42.93 _49 __(43)                     

_52 __ 43 ____ Mr Maunder (76.0) __________ 1.44 ___ 6.10 _______ 2.19 (42) _________ 9.73 ______ 58.0 ____ 7.2 _____ 62.0 ____ 42.40 _48 __(50)                      

_53 __ 73 ____ syed2878 (52.0) _____________ 1.98 ___ 0.12 ________ 7.52 (15) _________ 9.62 ______ 57.0 ___ 52.8 ____ 38.0 ____ 49.27 _53 __(73)                               

_54 __ --- ____ snowblind (40.0) _____________--- --- ___ -- -- -- ______ 8.86 ( 6)** _______ 8.86 ________ -- -- ____ -- -- ____ 26.0 ____ 26.0 (-- --) (-- --) 

_55 __ 52 ____ Moorlander (72.0) ___________ 3.72 ___ 2.16 _______ 2.59 (40) __________ 8.47 ______ 49.0 ___ 22.2 ____ 58.0 ____ 43.07 _t50 _(53)                       

_56 __ 41 ____ stewfox ( --- ) ________________ 7.05 ___ 1.21 ________ --- --- (---) ________ 8.26 ______ 26.0 ___ 29.8 ____ --- --- ____ 27.90 _26 __(41) 

_57 __ --- ____ WxEnthusiast91 (52.0) ______ --- --- ___ -- -- -- ______ 7.62 (14) _________ 7.62 _______ -- -- ____ -- -- _____ 38.0 ____ 38.00 (-- --) (-- --) 

_58 __ 45 ____ snowboy111 ( --- ) ___________ 7.51 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) __________ 7.51 ______ 24.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 24.00 (-- --) (T31) 

_59 __ 46 ____ Booferking ( --- ) _____________ 7.48 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) __________ 7.48 ______ 24.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 24.00 (-- --) (T31) 

_60 __ 50 ____ Kirkcaldy Weather (96.2) _____ 6.67 ___ --- --- ______ 0.26 (55) __________ 6.93 ______ 27.2 ____ -- -- ____ 82.2 ____ 54.70 _54 (39) 

_61 __ 47 ____ Mark Neal ( --- ) ______________ 6.92 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) __________ 6.92 ______ 27.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 27.00 (-- --) (37) 

_62 __ 51 ____ Tidal Wave ( --- ) _____________ 5.90 ___ --- --- _______ --- --- (---) __________ 5.90 ______ 35.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 35.00 (-- --) (52) 

_63 __ 54 ____ Cumbrian Ice ( --- ) ___________ 5.61 ___ --- --- _______ --- --- (---) _________ 5.61 ______ 36.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 36.00 (-- --) (54) 

_64 __ 56 ____ Stargazer ( --- ) ________________5.26 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) __________ 5.26 ______ 38.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 38.00 (-- --)  (57) 

_65 __ 57 ____ SouthLondonCold ( --- ) ______ 5.00 ___ --- --- _______ --- --- (---) __________5.00 ______ 41.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 41.00 (-- --) (60) 

_66 __ 59 ____ catbrainz ( --- ) _______________ -- -- ____ 4.80 _______ --- --- (---) _________ 4.80 ______ --- --- ___ 11.2 ____ --- --- ____ 11.20 (-- --)  (10)

_67 __ 60 ____ Kentspur ( --- ) _______________ 4.49 ___ --- --- _______ --- --- (---) __________ 4.49  ______ 45.5 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 45.50 (-- --) (62) 

_68 __ 61 ____ Ross Andrew Hemphill (---) __ 4.11 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) ___________ 4.11 ______ 47.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 47.00 (-- --) (T63) 

_69 __ 62 ____ Andrew Burden ( --- ) ________ 4.03 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) ___________ 4.03 ______ 47.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 47.00 (-- --) (T63) 

_70 __ 63 ____ Fozfoster ( --- ) _______________ 3.95 ___ --- --- ______ --- --- (---) ___________ 3.95 ______ 47.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- ____ 47.00 (-- --) (T63) 

_71 __ 64 ____ S Bragg ( --- ) _________________ 3.36 ___ --- --- _______ --- --- (---) __________ 3.36 ______ 51.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 51.00 (-- --) (67) 

_72 __ 66 ____ sunny_vale ( --- ) _____________ 3.00 ___ --- --- _______ --- --- (---) __________ 3.00 ______ 52.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 52.00 (-- --) (68) 

_73 __ 69 ____ Frigid (90.0) _________________ 2.06 ___ 0.54 _________ 0.39 (54) _________ 2.99 ______ 57.0 ____ 42.2 _____ 76.0 ____ 58.40 _55 (66)  

_74 __ 68 ____ icykev ( --- ) __________________ 2.83 ___ --- --- ________ --- --- (---) _________ 2.83 ______ 53.0 ____ -- -- ______ --- --- ____ 53.00 (-- --) (70) 

_75 __ 70 ____ vizzy2004 ( --- ) ______________ 2.49 ___ --- --- _________ --- --- (---) _________ 2.49 ______ 54.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 54.00 (-- --) (T71) 

_76 __ 71 ____ coldest winter ( --- ) _________ 2.41 ___ --- --- _________ --- --- (---) _________ 2.41 ______ 54.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 54.00 (-- --) (T71) 

_77 __ 72 ____ Matt Tarrant ( --- ) __________ 2.19 ___ --- --- _________ --- --- (---) __________ 2.19 ______ 56.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 56.00 (-- --) (74) 

_78 __ 78 ____ Metwatch (82.0) _____________0.66 ____ --- --- ________ 1.01 (49) __________ 1.67 ______ 68.0 ____ -- -- _____ 68.0 _____ 68.00 _57 (80) 

_79 __ 74 ____ pegg24 ( --- ) ________________ 1.52 ____ --- --- ________ --- --- (---) __________ 1.52 ______ 58.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- ____ 58.00 (-- --) (75) 

_80 __ 75 ____ chilly milly (129.6) ____________0.47 ___ 0.84 ________ 0.00 (57) __________ 1.31 ______ 71.1 ____ 33.8 ____ 115.6 ____ 73.50 _58 (69)  

_81 __ 80 ____ Neil N (88.0) _________________0.00 ___ 0.30 _________ 0.54 (53) ___________0.84 ______ 80.0 ____ 42.8 ____ 74.0 _____ 65.60 _56 (78) 

_82 __ 77 ____ Captain Shortwave ( --- ) ____ 0.79 ____ --- --- ________ --- --- (---) __________ 0.79 ______ 66.0 ____ -- -- _____ --- --- _____ 66.00 (-- --) (79) 

_83 __ 79 ____ Connor Bailey Degnan ( --- ) _0.40 ___ --- --- ________ --- --- (---) ____________0.40 ______ 75.0 ____ -- -- _____--- --- _____ 75.00 (-- --) (81) 

_84 __ 81 ____ Warwickshire Lad __________ 0.14 ___ --- --- _________ --- --- (---) ___________ 0.14 ______ 78.0 ____ -- -- ____ --- --- _____ 78.00 (-- --) (82) 

 _________________________________________

^ late one day, 0.3 penalty

** rank moves up one due to other forecasters' late penalties (but these are scored from a lower scoring level)

NOTE regarding average error ranks. These were awarded to 58 entrants who were in two or three contests, and going forward, 2/4, 3/5, 3/6 then three or fewer missed up to 9/12 will be the minimum standard. You can re-activate a ranking for average error by entering March if you are now dormant at 1/3. 

-------------------------------------------------------------------- // ---------------------------------------------------

RANK (prev) __ NORMAL (or Consensus) _________ Dec, Jan Pts __ Feb Pts ___ Total ___ Dec err_Jan err,Feb err __ avg err (rank) (prev)

 8.1 _(6.0) ____1981-2010 average 66.5 mm_______ 9.81 __ 7.16 ___ 3.82 ___ 20.59 _____ 4.6 ____ 4.8 ____ 55.5 ____ 21.60 (rank 4.2, prev 2.8)

 9.9 _(0.8) ___ 1993-2022 average 74.9 mm_______ 9.85 __ 7.88 ___ 2.31 ___ 20.04 _____ 3.5 ____ 2.4 ____ 63.9 ____ 23.27 (rank 4.8 prev 0.74)

10.2_(5.4) ___ 1991-2020 average 72.4 mm_______10.00 _ 7.32 ___ 2.55 ___ 19.87 _____ 1.6 ____ 3.6 ____ 61.4 ____ 22.20 (rank 4.4, prev 0.65)

13.0_(17.4)___ consensus 65.0 mm _______________ 5.13 __ 9.23 ___ 4.68 ___ 19.04 _____39.0 ____ 1.7____ 54.0 ____ 31.57 (rank 28.2 prev 28.3)

===================================================

February was a better month for consensus which has narrowed the large gap that existed after Dec-Jan, with normals ahead of most forecasters. The normals have dropped back a few ranks this month. 

THIS TABLE will be adjusted if necessary for JAN scoring, and if FEB exceeds 32.7 mm some Feb scores will need adjusting also. 

Edited March 5, 2023 by Roger J Smith

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.3c to the 17th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

Gosh a 0.4 degree increase in a day, certainly experiencing very mild CET  values, the next 3-4 days remain very mild, but not quite same degree, but likely to be in the high 6s going into the last week of Feb. Current forecasts show a significant cooling, but difficult to call where will eventually fall, probably a finish in the high 5s, or low 6s. A very mild very dry February on the cards. 

[Roger J Smith]

Record values for 17th:

11.3 mean daily tied v2.0 record from 1878 (it was boosted from 10.7 in legacy). 

14.2 daily max tied the old legacy records from 1878 and 1920 but fell short of 1878 in v2.0 (boosted to 14.9, 1920 was pushed down to 13.6).

 8.4 daily min broke 1911 record (8.1 v2.0, 8.0 in CET legacy). 

(will keep an eye on any later changes they make to those values, and possible records today and next two days)

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.2C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

A steady rise until Wednesday when Temperatures look to return to normal values.

The local forecast has no more rain for us in the forecast we are still at the driest on record at the moment. It should also bring winter well below average which is something we don't need.

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 18th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

18 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Gosh a 0.4 degree increase in a day, certainly experiencing very mild CET  values, the next 3-4 days remain very mild, but not quite same degree, but likely to be in the high 6s going into the last week of Feb. Current forecasts show a significant cooling, but difficult to call where will eventually fall, probably a finish in the high 5s, or low 6s. A very mild very dry February on the cards. 

Yet another mild winter, despite what March could bring!

[Roger J Smith]

No changes made to 17th as reported yesterday, meanwhile status of record values for 18th:

11.2 mean daily 2023 fell short of 1945 record in v2.0 11.8. 

13.5 daily max 2023 fell short of 1945 record in v2.0 15.2.

 8.8 daily min broke 1945 record in v2.0 (8.5), as CET legacy record 9.0 in 1911 was reduced to 8.3 in v2.0.. 

(will keep an eye on any later changes they make to those values, and possible records today and next two days)

[Froze were the Days]

6 hours ago, Don said:

Yet another mild winter, despite what March could bring!

2012/13 the last winter which was colder than the 1961-90 series mean...says it all!

Edited February 19, 2023 by Froze were the Days

[Summer Sun]

6.7c to the 19th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[North-Easterly Blast]

21 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

2012/13 the last winter which was colder than the 1961-90 series mean...says it all!

The 1961-90 winter average is 4.1*C, and if you go back to the 1951-80, then the winter CET average is 4.0.  Going further back to 1941-70, then the winter CET average is 3.8.  So 2012-13 was just about a typical 1941-70 winter, although it had a notably cold March on top.  

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 7.2C +2.5C above average. Rainfall unchanged still.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update 7.8 mm to present time, only about 3 mm indicated 21st-28th, 11.0 mm would make 2023 the sixth driest February after 1891 (3.6 mm), 1959 (8.7 mm), 1932 (8.9 mm), 1921 (10.2 mm) and 1821 (10.3 mm). Current 6th 1895 (11.1 mm) and 7th 1934 (11.9 mm). EWP could finish anywhere from 4th to 8th given an uncertainty of just 1 mm. 

CET projection from GFS would be 7.2 by 21st, then a gradual drop to a finish on 6.2 to 6.4 C. 

[damianslaw]

May well nudge into the 7s next day or so, then a slow drop most likely, but can't see a finish in the 5s, low to mid 6s most likely, a very mild February. Experiencing alot of these lately, not sure what is happening to Feb but fast becoming a Spring month, indeed when mean temps are above 6 degrees, there is slow grass growth.

I would not be surprised to see March end up colder than Feb, last time this happened was 2013.