Model Output Discussion - Into February

[damianslaw]

Interesting to note how the models have moved away from an atlantic onslaught in recent runs, whilst the PV looks angry to the NW, we remain in a fairly amplified state, and the azores high likely to ridge through the UK and try to build NE, but comes unstuck with the jet riding over the top. A classic ridge/trough scenario, any sustained long fetch SW flow I don't see. Overall a fairly standard mid winter set up, some rain and wind at times more so further north and west, perhaps some wintry precipitation high ground, drier further south - indeed looks a very dry outlook by and large here, some frost in clear spells.

I can see a path to something colder eventually once we lose the intensity of the PV, it hasn't really been a strong influence all winter, how little stormy weather we have had is evidence of this, must be one of the least windy winters on record possibly.

[sebastiaan1973]

Very small chance for a N/SE/E- wind. Pity.

[ANYWEATHER]

As we move into February, looking like high pressure will be in control,  as we go into early month, the Question is ,where is the high going to position. ...?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

It’s shocking how mild the latest ECM is showing for NW’ Europe!

Hope it changes to something more average.

82C418FA-76DA-4AD6-82E7-11C57B3FF54D.webp

Edited January 27, 2023 by prolongedSnowLover

[Don]

6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s shocking how mild the latest ECM is showing for NW’ Europe!

Hope it changes to something more average.

82C418FA-76DA-4AD6-82E7-11C57B3FF54D.webp 374.33 kB · 0 downloads

Looking a tad chilly for Greece and the Greek snow lovers will be happy with that chart!

[CoventryWeather]

Still feel that the main risk of developing a cold spell is mid-February, when the PV is most likely to be displaced over to Scandi/Russia. This is constantly being shown on extended runs and follows background signals, so I don't see why everyone is looking at early Feb for cold - the flow over the top is too strong for anything noteworthy. I'd happily take a slack southeasterly to start February, it would be better than the gloom we've had for the majority of the month.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CoventryWeather said:

Still feel that the main risk of developing a cold spell is mid-February, when the PV is most likely to be displaced over to Scandi/Russia. This is constantly being shown on extended runs and follows background signals, so I don't see why everyone is looking at early Feb for cold - the flow over the top is too strong for anything noteworthy. I'd happily take a slack southeasterly to start February, it would be better than the gloom we've had for the majority of the month.

agree, although think it might be a little later - 20th onwrds

[Don]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

agree, although think it might be a little later - 20th onwrds

I think anything cold before mid February was always going to be a bonus, with later in the month more realistic.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Don

[feb1991blizzard]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

I think anything cold before mid February was always going to be a bonus, with later in the month more realistic.

must admit though i am starting to get concerned.

[Don]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

must admit though i am starting to get concerned.

Yes, may long range models are looking grim for February it has to be said!

[Daniel*]

52 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s shocking how mild the latest ECM is showing for NW’ Europe!

Hope it changes to something more average.

82C418FA-76DA-4AD6-82E7-11C57B3FF54D.webp 374.33 kB · 12 downloads

I don’t see anything shocking there. Scratches head… most of Europe is cold and it’s close proximity to SE U.K.. Scandinavia is notably mild but that’s sometimes an interesting indicator. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Daniel*

[icykev]

Not going to quote anyone but seriously strong winter is over feeling going on in here tonight. Has the weather not baffled us before during unpredictable times.

I will still be looking for cold into March

[Tim Bland]

There’s a beast to the east …

[feb1991blizzard]

here she comes.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

here she comes.

Good old pub run to bring some Friday night cheer! 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Don

[Tim Bland]

The show ain’t over yet folks…

[goosey007]

[Tim Bland]

Bigger picture the 18z isn’t massively different to the 12z…just a small euro low

[Don]

4 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Just a pity that's not a chart for tomorrow!! 

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Only a couple of weeks away. What could possibly go wrong? 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Only a couple of weeks away. What could possibly go wrong? 

Oh come now, don't be so pessimistic! 

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh come now, don't be so pessimistic! 

Apologies  

[Singularity]

Could be one heck of a battle between the polar vortex and the MJO-enhanced Azores High looking to vacate over Scandinavia.

Result, highest chance of settled weather in far south of UK, as is the highest chance of a cold continental flow establishing sometime in 2nd week Feb.

A stalemate with the south instead ‘least mild’ in a slack flow is arguably the safest bet. I remain sceptical of runs that bring unsettled conditions all the way south within the next fortnight, as opposed to just occasional mainly weak fronts. That would require an unexpected capitulation of the MJO within the next week.

[Rain All Night]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Result, highest chance of settled weather in far south of UK, as is the highest chance of a cold continental flow establishing sometime in 2nd week Feb.

The party's in our back yard for once then?!

[Don]

7 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

The party's in our back yard for once then?!

I look forward to the invite!!