Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T168 shows quite a lot of promise.  

I think getting the WAA nicely aligned at this point is going to be essential if any high lat block is to result.  

[minus10]

Yes...getting better..

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

UKMO at T168.#

What could possibly go wrong?

Just got pushed west from the last chart, so that's a toppler. Was thinking the low to the west would godown, pushing high up. Never mind may be next time.

[Lukesluckybunch]

Ukmo at 168 further on i would give it 60/40 chance of decent easterly to develop

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Just got pushed west from the last chart, so that's a toppler. Was thinking the low to the west would godown, pushing high up. Never mind may be next time.

It's a good chart isn't it?

[CoventryWeather]

So we have the GEM, UKMO and ICON showing a similar pattern to each other - a trough diving into Central Europe through Scandinavia, allowing the high to build further north. The GFS is on its own at this point, it doesn't seem to agree with the others, the low stays to the North, blocking the high.

I might be reading the charts wrong, but it seems there 'may' be agreement with a potential Scandi high development. Let's see what the Ensembles say and the ECM.

[mb018538]

Met didn’t get the memo about all this cold weather in their February outlook issued today…

[Duane S.]

2 hours ago, s4lancia said:

I think many are under estimated the potential here, (yes that word 'potential', but it is what it is). With a disrupted strat unknown entity factored in ..

IMO there is a notable 'tipping point' around D8, a sliding doors moment, call it what you will. The PV will probably overcome the ridging but it is very close to being a very special chart this (my particular interest ringed)...

Al I am saying is, unlike most occasions, it wouldn't take much of a tweak for things to take a very different path to what follows on from above on the 06z...

Et voila, the 12z ops sniff it. Like I said, this shouldn't come as any surprise.

[Battleground Snow]

Control and mean are much better than the OP, a little bit of promise so far today, hopefully the ecm can join in at 168 later too

Edited January 30, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[Gowon]

21 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Met didn’t get the memo about all this cold weather in their February outlook issued today…

Probably because they go off the ECM 

 

22 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

So we have the GEM, UKMO and ICON showing a similar pattern to each other - a trough diving into Central Europe through Scandinavia, allowing the high to build further north. The GFS is on its own at this point, it doesn't seem to agree with the others, the low stays to the North, blocking the high.

I might be reading the charts wrong, but it seems there 'may' be agreement with a potential Scandi high development. Let's see what the Ensembles say and the ECM.

Indeed the potential is there, and it was always supported by some ensembles, but every time someone mentioned the word they got slated for it. 

 

Edited January 30, 2023 by Gowon

[nick sussex]

The UKMO once again showing some interest on its day 7 chart . The GEM lookd similar at that point and if we are going to witness the mini miracle it might need two attempts to get a colder east to ne flow .

The GFS gets scuppered later by the PV reforming into that blob over Greenland.

This really has been a frustrating spell of model watching as there’s often been plenty of cold to tap into , if only the PV was just a little bit weaker and further to the nw .

Anyway thats now in the past and we need to hope to salvage something from February .

[Purga]

The UKMET +169h has potential written all over it

Edited January 30, 2023 by Purga

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

The UKMET +169h has potential written all over it

 

Go and sit in the naughty corner you mentioned the P word !!! 

[Daniel*]

I’m liking direction of travel with UKMO think a cold easterly would be more likely than not, improvement on morning as well on left. Let’s just hope it’s not one of those teases it does, would like to see ECM show similar. 

[Stuie]

19 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m liking direction of travel with UKMO think a cold easterly would be more likely than not, improvement on morning as well on left. Let’s just hope it’s not one of those teases it does, would like to see ECM show similar. 

You can almost see the cogs to just keep flooding the easterly with cold air (anti/clockwise pressure)

[Don]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Met didn’t get the memo about all this cold weather in their February outlook issued today…

Surprise that as I was expecting them to go for brutal cold!!  

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

what MJO phases 2 and 3? , we might be in 3 now but theres no 2 and its predicted to low orbit 4 and 5 which arent good for february (for cold)

 

Just what have we got going for February cold?!  Less and less it would seem.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Don

[Alexis]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Met didn’t get the memo about all this cold weather in their February outlook issued today…

Chocolate teapot. 50% chance of being mild means 50% chance of it not being mild. And 50% is the most likely scenario, even though the odds are the same as a coin toss!

Not to mention that "average" can mean 2 bitterly cold weeks and 2 very mild weeks.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Alexis

[feb1991blizzard]

here she comes !

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

here she comes !

Is she wearing pink pyjamas when she comes, feb?

[Lukesluckybunch]

So what are the chances of a big easterly coming up on the ECM!?.let's hope it's similar to the GEM if not better!

Edited January 30, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

So what are the chances of a big easterly coming up on the ECM!?.let's hope it's similar to the GEM if not better!

Make or break time, can the T168 produce the goods?

 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, snowray said:

Make or break time, can the T168 produce the goods?

 

 

Don't think it will..hope I am wrong

[blizzard81]

Much improvement compared to yesterday's run. 

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Don't think it will..hope I am wrong

Not so good, maybe this will be a slow burner?

 

[icykev]

She's trying @168