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Model Output Discussion - Into February


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

What a bizarre standoff. For now can`t grumble when at least there is actual European cold. 

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland

Interesting @192 to say the least 🤔 

Come on baby 🙏ECH1-192.thumb.gif.4efe213637103264f7290707275c6857.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, icykev said:

Interesting @192 to say the least 🤔 

Come on baby 🙏ECH1-192.thumb.gif.4efe213637103264f7290707275c6857.gif

Yep you saved me the trouble of posting the chart. Now we're talking!

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep you saved me the trouble of posting the chart. Now we're talking!

The combination of the jet and this damn HP, the UK brick wall holds.

 

 

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ECM1-192.gif

 

Edit: it isn`t mild though. ECM0-216.thumb.gif.a54b9cb8f4366ab316b981abdc1e3711.gif

Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Not bad....

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Certainly an improvement on the 00z

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Edited by Purga
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Sort of stuck in no man's land ..240 should be ok!

It is !

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

OMG can someone just nuke that PV .

Its limpeted slap bang over Greenland . If only we could just get that further to the nw .

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Now your talking!! 240hrs ecm is the best chart in about 6 weeks!! 

FI of course but icon, gem and ecm all raise an eyebrow this evening 

Super!🤩

 

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

OMG can someone just nuke that PV .

Its limpeted slap bang over Greenland . If only we could just get that further to the nw .

Imagine if it just stayed put 😉

Edit:another day, the positive AO does hold the blob of PV where it is. 

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Edited by Stuie W
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Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

You have the feeling that the signal for hp block towards east/ ne is growing.... a bit..

77189575_ECH1-240(11).thumb.gif.8eb7bbfb1787ef29be4d901f488407ba.gif

Well..let's hope it doesn't build to far to the northeast! And all the cold air gets stuck of central and eastern Europe..that is generally what happens

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

JMA joins the GFS 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Fantastic ecm op this evening. I started to feel much more positive yesterday about future developments and I for one am not surprised at these relatively short term sudden upgrades today. 

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

JMA joins the GFS 

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Thank goodness for that. I really mean that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 minute ago, Gowon said:

JMA joins the GFS 

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That is actually rather good news that the JMA wants to follow GFS!😉

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Just now, snowray said:

That is actually rather good news that the JMA wants to follow GFS!😉

We were simultaneous with our thoughts there 😂

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
4 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

With this EC 240h chart there is hope after all, with decent support from the other models.
Developments are not unlike February 1991, with that Scandi High not super strong and the low heights in SE Europe:

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Feb 1991 just goes to show you can have a strong PV over Greenland and still get cold

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