Model Output Discussion - Into February

[minus10]

Considerable high anomaly being shown to ne on ecm 240..

[Cuban Zebra]

I admire the positivity and as the GFS evolves you start to think the PV is starting to shift eastwards but then bang! It snaps back and the “benign crud” continues!’

If it continues in its size and position we’re screwed for any easterly!!!

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Cuban Zebra said:

I admire the positivity and as the GFS evolves you start to think the PV is starting to shift eastwards but then bang! It snaps back and the “benign crud” continues!’

If it continues in its size and position we’re screwed for any easterly!!!

I totally understand your pessimism. Just sit tight though. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

5 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Considerable high anomaly being shown to ne on ecm 240..

Unfortunately that is too far northeast..I said it many times the centre of the high needs to be somewhere between Iceland and Norway

[northwestsnow]

Cracking EC det.

I just don't believe it.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Unfortunately that is too far northeast..I said it many times the centre of the high needs to be somewhere between Iceland and Norway

It’s more than ok as part of the bigger picture ..it will prevent the scandi high being pushed away and secures the link to the polar high - it’s a good run but want to see how many eps are interested as previous two suites were not 

[Cold Winter Night]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Feb 1991 just goes to show you can have a strong PV over Greenland and still get cold

Not just February 1991.

Nearly all great cold spells (Scandi-type) start off with a strong PV over Greenland, because that PV drives the powerful WAA a solid High over Scandinavia needs. It's usually what happens over the European continent what makes the difference (CAA or flattening).

Here are just a few snapshots from 1942, 1947 and Dec 1962 (not coincidentally the 20th century winter Top 3).

Just looking at Greenland they all seem ominous.

(Note: I am NOT saying we will see anything like this...)

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Not just February 1991.

Nearly all great cold spells (Scandi-type) start off with a strong PV over Greenland, because that PV drives the powerful WAA a solid High over Scandinavia needs. It's usually what happens over the European continent what makes the difference (CAA or flattening).

Here are just a few snapshots from 1942, 1947 and Dec 1962 (not coincidentally the 20th century winter Top 3).

Just looking at Greenland they all seem ominous.

(Note: I am NOT saying we will see anything like this...)

You can`t discredit this post, who bloody knows the current evolution.  Just wished the teleconnections NAO wise were showing a more negative trend.

[KTtom]

Just looking at the archive charts in the run up to the BFTE 1991, maybe ill have to change my tune with regards to we cant get an easterly with the PV stuck over Greenland

[Lukesluckybunch]

I wish this kind of set up would materialise in late December to January rather then the back of winter..although we still have basically the whole of February for decent cold.just the main core of the winter has passed

[Guest]

12z ECM mean at 240hrs more blocked than the 00z run so could be some various options amongst the ensembles.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters show a dramatic improvement tonight.  Maybe expected given ECM and GEM - UKMO looked very good too, so maybe there is something in this idea of evolution to a scandi high.

T120-168:

The ridge very strongly supported at T168, variations on a theme, op in cluster 1.

T192-T240:

Full house of red borders here, op is in cluster 3 but cluster 2 also very good.

T264+:

Orientation and position of the high are of course to be determined, cluster 1 looks excellent with 22 members, cluster 2 also good.  Cluster 3 is the +NAO one, that’s down to 13 members.  

This is a high risk evolution in my view, but it has happened in the past as @Cold Winter Night has posted, so we’re right back in the game with something exciting to watch on the models!!

Edited January 30, 2023 by Mike Poole

[stodge]

Evening all

Again, one or two flickers of interest (GEM and to an extent ECM). To this observer, it's simply a question of whether those wanting colder conditions can catch a break in terms of the jet slowing enough to allow heights to build over Scandinavia and then not flattening them with the next push.

Seeing more Wave 1 activity toward mid month on the GFS makes me think we won't get lucky and it's all still outside the reliable (look at the T+216 charts from ECM, GEM, GFS, CFS and JMA if you want to see the variation in evolutions or rather five ways to skin a cat).

I'm also far from convinced we'll get from now to the middle of March without some form of colder outbreak though the severity and longevity is of course quite uncertain. We may have to wait a while and thos heading for Cheltenham might need to pack something warm:

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

It's a good chart isn't it?

It could be if it keeps moving east and stops over scandi, but looks like it won't do that to me.

Edited January 30, 2023 by alexisj9

[Lukesluckybunch]

8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It could be if it keeps moving west and stops over scandi, but looks like it won't do that to me.

Yes exactly it will be the same as usual thing cold air will stall over central and eastern europe..rarely it gets this far West to the UK

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Yes exactly it will be the same as usual thing cold air will stall over central and eastern europe..rarely it gets this far West to the UK

Yes, it usually ends up like this.

[feb1991blizzard]

Quite a few going for a late feb SSW now.

in fact majority cluster with SSW at some point during run.

The @bluearmy nemesis cold spring run.

Edited January 30, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[minus10]

34 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters show a dramatic improvement tonight.  Maybe expected given ECM and GEM - UKMO looked very good too, so maybe there is something in this idea of evolution to a scandi high.

T120-168:

The ridge very strongly supported at T168, variations on a theme, op in cluster 1.

T192-T240:

Full house of red borders here, op is in cluster 3 but cluster 2 also very good.

T264+:

Orientations and positions of the high are of course to be determined, cluster 1 looks excellent with 22 members, cluster 2 also good.  Cluster 3 is the +NAO one, that’s down to 13 members.  

This is a very high risk evolution in my view, but it has happened in the past as @Cold Winter Night has posted, so we’re right back in the game with something exciting to watch on the models!!

Yes the z500 anomaly mean also supporting the clusters i would think..

Edited January 30, 2023 by minus10

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Quite a few going for a late feb SSW now.

in fact majority cluster with SSW at some point during run.

The @bluearmy nemesis cold spring run.

Yes an early final warning and undoubted wintry Easter to follow 

whilst the ec46 mean looks less than exciting, 19/26 feb has a decent cluster with a ridge to our west and trough over scandi 

and the 00z eps mean at day 15 wasn’t quite as ‘interesting’ as the 12z is. 

we still have plenty to be looking at in the 10/15 day period re possible scandi ridge developments 

[That ECM]

An hour after ecm has come out and thought may has well have a quick look cause that’s about as much interest I’ve had after run after run of looking at a high over us and nearly spat my Guinness out. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Yes an early final warning and undoubted wintry Easter to follow 

whilst the ec46 mean looks less than exciting, 19/26 feb has a decent cluster with a ridge to our west and trough over scandi 

and the 00z eps mean at day 15 wasn’t quite as ‘interesting’ as the 12z is. 

we still have plenty to be looking at in the 10/15 day period re possible scandi ridge developments 

Wintry Easter ?

Oh joy.

Hopefully something before Easter !!

[Purga]

I've seen worse ECM ENS. Quite some scatter but opportunities aplenty.

[Stuie]

21 minutes ago, Purga said:

I've seen worse ECM ENS. Quite some scatter but opportunities aplenty.

Lets go with FI equalling 7 days (which to be honest is the new day 10).  After Feb 6 it is a mess. 

The main `issue` is that we are lloking at -4 850`s max, that isn`t dramatic.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Stuie W

[Ali1977]

I think we are going cold, the NAVGEM is all over it

Edited January 30, 2023 by Ali1977

[snowray]

32 minutes ago, Purga said:

I've seen worse ECM ENS. Quite some scatter but opportunities aplenty.

That looks pretty decent.

I know that we moan a lot about days getting longer in February, myself included, but having read a few things about winter Lore and weather history it's a month that can produce some of the most bitter winter weather. It's just that most of us today have not experienced a severe February in our lifetime. apart from the odd BFTE and then a quite rapid warm up.

 

Two very old sayings spring to mind.

As the days get longer the cold gets stronger.

and

February is short, short, but worse than a Tork. (Turk) This goes back to the time of the Ottoman Empire.

NB...Apologies if I might have bored you with my musings. Anyway, hopefully we can see further upgrades in the coming day or two which will produce a memorable February.

 

Edited January 30, 2023 by snowray