Model Output Discussion - Into February

[kold weather]

21 minutes ago, nobble said:

About time we had an April to remember

Literally had one less than 2 years ago, significantly below average, and there were a decent number of snow/wintry showers around even in the SE.

The 18z probably for the garbage bin, bombing lps left right and center when all other models are far more constrained. The 18z GFS is at one point nearing 40mbs deeper with one low than any other model...and any model that throws out a 924mbs low without other model support should be thrown I to the bin frankly.

 

[nobble]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Literally had one less than 2 years ago, significantly below average, and there were a decent number of snow/wintry showers around even in the SE.

The 18z probably for the garbage bin, bombing lps left right and center when all other models are far more constrained. The 18z GFS is at one point nearing 40mbs deeper with one low than any other model...and any model that throws out a 924mbs low without other model support should be thrown I to the bin frankly.

 

Yes it was a cold first 2 weeks in my locale snowed on 6 th and 12th 

but I was talking a decent dumping 

3 inches first Saturday / Sunday April 2008 spring to mind 

and I remember one sometime in late 80,s as a young one !!!- a large overnight dumping 

[Rain All Night]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Literally had one less than 2 years ago, significantly below average, and there were a decent number of snow/wintry showers around even in the SE.

The 18z probably for the garbage bin, bombing lps left right and center when all other models are far more constrained. The 18z GFS is at one point nearing 40mbs deeper with one low than any other model...and any model that throws out a 924mbs low without other model support should be thrown I to the bin frankly.

 

@CreweCold Do we know by any chance if there was an early final warming in 2021?

[Lukesluckybunch]

well the ens mean..at 186 is almost a straight easterly

[Allseasons-Si]

Just catching up thanks to a busy thread in here this evening

a good mean at 186 i would say and if you look closely,...there is an easterly feed in the SE.

18z vs 12z

Just to add,...the de-built has a growing trend in there latest from previously what i have viewed over the last few days.

Edited January 30, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[Uncertainty]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

well the ens mean..at 186 is almost a straight easterly

That’s quite a mean Luke. Though we need at least two, possibly three days of upgrades to reel this one in. It could all collapse in one suite though. But the trend tonight has been really really strong in favour of those scandi heights. 

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just catching up thanks to a busy thread in here this evening

a good mean at 186 i would say and if you look closely,...there is an easterly feed in the SE.

18z vs 12z

there are some really good ens in there..at 192 check out number 9

[Battleground Snow]

Gefs has improved further on the 12z runs, with 40% or so looking good for Scandinavian blocking at 192

[Uncertainty]

Not gonna post individual perturbations but, as Luke says, have a gander at number 9. That’s the absolute stonker we’ve been waiting 5 years for on here…

Again, for newer folk / lurkers: The quick cold evo is highly unlikely. But what a buzz they’ll be in here if it’s still there come Friday morning…

[Allseasons-Si]

Still facsinated with the mean out to 204,...starting to see a cutback of cold into Europe

a couple of frames on...

,...i do hope that we get a cold spell out of this cos it would cheer a lot of folk up in here(me included),we have been robbed by two cold spells so far with only a few crumbs of snowfall in some places,yes it has been cold but what is the point without snow?

and just to add as i have said it before,...you can have a strong tpv to our NW but if that fails to get past the meridian(UK) then there is every chance of a cold spell from the opposite direction from the east as long as there is lower heights over the Med.

whoa!!!,..steady on,...there is some brutal runs showing up in here

Edited January 30, 2023 by Allseasons-si
typo/added charts

[Daniel*]

Yes interesting very cold cluster in 18z GEFS with sub -10C 850hPa temps. This for London. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Not a bad day ten mean from the geo pot height anomaly

[alexisj9]

Just posting the 18z short to show, the mean is dropping on the fifth now, so the run below -5 doesn't look like a complete outlier anymore, although it is still below, and doesn't stay that low, the next day you get runs going down further though. I'll be watching what the mean around this time does.

Edited January 30, 2023 by alexisj9

[minus10]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Yes interesting very cold cluster in 18z GEFS with sub -10C 850hPa temps. This for London. 

Yes incredible how that mean just falls away..

...compared to the 12z..

[Daniel*]

This mean anomaly chart certainly catches your attention! There’s evidently quite a strong signal in GEFS tonight.

[Cheshire Freeze]

42 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

@CreweCold Do we know by any chance if there was an early final warming in 2021?

I think there was a technical SSW early January that year but I’ve no idea when the final warming happened.

I’d be intrigued to see a list of final warming dates if anyone has one to hand?

[minus10]

...also thats quite a high mean anom for t276..

[tight isobar]

So... ina nutshell.. we now perhaps start noted engineering of both structure, and jigsaw dynamics?!.. the W- pac madden julien OSC- just start handy orbital switch... as the blown up mother lobe polar vortex is on high tenacity- the whistle stops also note this (can’t post)! The top polar- polar continental quadrants- finding ample advection of both passing- And stagnant pressure in- And around the mid/ upper latitudes. The in depth polar annom, has also now “ perhaps “- held its position enough for back lodged tpv/ spv- dynamics?. Ensemble data is ( I hope)- now gaining on circular M- and morphing with raw data ops.. to note.. an alleyway of high latitude sneaking as again The MJO wanting compliments and even stalls exactions of jet rolling sequence?!.. that causing yet more confusion into raw data.. But noting a stern avenue for NE/ top lid Scandinavian blocking....And as again.. I can see this very feasibly as an evolution of note!!! Then it’s decip the proper to a cold dripping format/ formats.. into the maritime/ NW Europe advance?!.. I think we’ll see a ripe cross modelling plot/plots for this now.. here on in...... And the drainage of cold hopefully “ I think “- finds an easier route that could be proposed initially!... polar continental breach is raising its game!!.. And wasn’t it always... once the puzzle got sat with and elaborated!!!!!-

[Mucka]

About 1/3 of GFS ensembles now have some form of Easterly influence on our weather by day 10 so the signal is still weakish but also still strengthening.

The more vertical and W we can get the WAA and wedge of high pressure then obviously the better but what the models might not be seeing yet is a trigger low or slider that comes S on E flank.

That of course can't happen if the wedge is tilted more toward Scandi but the more W and vertical it is the more likely that becomes which would be the quickest route to a beast from the east scenario .

That trigger low would be modelled somewhere between 120 and 144 currently so if it is at all likely we should see it modelled in the next couple of days in one or two of the Ops

Edited January 30, 2023 by Mucka

[minus10]

...lastly for a mean that is not a bad 850s profile at t204...

.....goodnight...

[Ms Rock & Blues]

3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Not boring at all. Keep em coming. 

I agree, my birthday day is in February and I often get a snow treat.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

*accidentally hit the post button too fast LOL 

I seen quite a few mentioning February 1991, still a few years before my D.O.B however I checked the MJO archive and very interesting the January phases were also 2 + 3 

Fab showings on the 18z GEFS as some others have eluded to

 

 

 

My #1 of this particular suite 

 

Further thoroughly enthralling times 

 

 

Edited January 31, 2023 by Kirkcaldy Weather

[alexisj9]

13 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

*accidentally hit the post button too fast LOL 

I seen quite a few mentioning February 1991, still a few years before my D.O.B however I checked the MJO archive and very interesting the January phases were also 2 + 3 

Fab showings on the 18z GEFS as some others have eluded to

 

 

 

My #1 of this particular suite 

 

Further thoroughly enthralling times 

 

 

Yep your favourite one looks great. Could cause us a few problems though 

[Daniel*]

Well, well, well. GFS is on board! I find this more noteworthy as typically the 00z is the stinker of the day that’s my observation. 
 

[Mucka]

UKMO/GFS 96h comparison

UKMO/GFS 144h comparison

 

That is decent UKMO and the fact GFS is quite different even by 96h is  likely testament to the fact it has become insane rather than it putting forward a logical argument. 

TWT

Edited January 31, 2023 by Mucka