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Model Output Discussion - Into February


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    21 minutes ago, nobble said:

    About time we had an April to remember ❄️👍🏻

    Literally had one less than 2 years ago, significantly below average, and there were a decent number of snow/wintry showers around even in the SE.

    The 18z probably for the garbage bin, bombing lps left right and center when all other models are far more constrained. The 18z GFS is at one point nearing 40mbs deeper with one low than any other model...and any model that throws out a 924mbs low without other model support should be thrown I to the bin frankly.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
    3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Literally had one less than 2 years ago, significantly below average, and there were a decent number of snow/wintry showers around even in the SE.

    The 18z probably for the garbage bin, bombing lps left right and center when all other models are far more constrained. The 18z GFS is at one point nearing 40mbs deeper with one low than any other model...and any model that throws out a 924mbs low without other model support should be thrown I to the bin frankly.

     

    Yes it was a cold first 2 weeks in my locale snowed on 6 th and 12th 

    but I was talking a decent dumping 

    3 inches first Saturday / Sunday April 2008 spring to mind 

    and I remember one sometime in late 80,s as a young one !!!- a large overnight dumping 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, tropical nights, lightning, all day frost, rain at night only
  • Location: Dorset
    6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Literally had one less than 2 years ago, significantly below average, and there were a decent number of snow/wintry showers around even in the SE.

    The 18z probably for the garbage bin, bombing lps left right and center when all other models are far more constrained. The 18z GFS is at one point nearing 40mbs deeper with one low than any other model...and any model that throws out a 924mbs low without other model support should be thrown I to the bin frankly.

     

    @CreweCold Do we know by any chance if there was an early final warming in 2021?

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
    3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

    well the ens mean..at 186 is almost a straight easterly

    That’s quite a mean Luke. Though we need at least two, possibly three days of upgrades to reel this one in. It could all collapse in one suite though. But the trend tonight has been really really strong in favour of those scandi heights. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
    3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Just catching up thanks to a busy thread in here this evening

    a good mean at 186 i would say and if you look closely,...there is an easterly feed in the SE.

    18z vs 12z

    Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Hurricane, StormCould contain: Outdoors, Nature, Hurricane, Storm

    there are some really good ens in there..at 192 check out number 9

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    Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

    Not gonna post individual perturbations but, as Luke says, have a gander at number 9. That’s the absolute stonker we’ve been waiting 5 years for on here…

    Again, for newer folk / lurkers: The quick cold evo is highly unlikely. But what a buzz they’ll be in here if it’s still there come Friday morning…

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

    Not a bad day ten mean from the geo pot height anomaly👍

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

    Just posting the 18z short to show, the mean is dropping on the fifth now, so the run below -5 doesn't look like a complete outlier anymore, although it is still below, and doesn't stay that low, the next day you get runs going down further though. I'll be watching what the mean around this time does.

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    Edited by alexisj9
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    Yes interesting very cold cluster in 18z GEFS with sub -10C 850hPa temps. This for London. 

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    Yes incredible how that mean just falls away..

    Could contain: Chart

    ...compared to the 12z..

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    This mean anomaly chart certainly catches your attention! There’s evidently quite a strong signal in GEFS tonight.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    42 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

    @CreweCold Do we know by any chance if there was an early final warming in 2021?

    I think there was a technical SSW early January that year but I’ve no idea when the final warming happened.

    I’d be intrigued to see a list of final warming dates if anyone has one to hand?

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    ...also thats quite a high mean anom for t276..

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    So... ina nutshell.. we now perhaps start noted engineering of both structure, and jigsaw dynamics?!.. the W- pac madden julien OSC- just start handy orbital switch... as the blown up mother lobe polar vortex is on high tenacity- the whistle stops also note this (can’t post)! The top polar- polar continental quadrants- finding ample advection of both passing- And stagnant pressure in- And around the mid/ upper latitudes. The in depth polar annom, has also now “ perhaps “- held its position enough for back lodged tpv/ spv- dynamics?. Ensemble data is ( I hope)- now gaining on circular M- and morphing with raw data ops.. to note.. an alleyway of high latitude sneaking as again The MJO wanting compliments and even stalls exactions of jet rolling sequence?!.. that causing yet more confusion into raw data.. But noting a stern avenue for NE/ top lid Scandinavian blocking....And as again.. I can see this very feasibly as an evolution of note!!! Then it’s decip the proper to a cold dripping format/ formats.. into the maritime/ NW Europe advance?!.. I think we’ll see a ripe cross modelling plot/plots for this now.. here on in...... And the drainage of cold hopefully “ I think “- finds an easier route that could be proposed initially!... polar continental breach is raising its game!!.. And wasn’t it always... once the puzzle got sat with and elaborated!!!!!-

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    About 1/3 of GFS ensembles now have some form of Easterly influence on our weather by day 10 so the signal is still weakish but also still strengthening.

    The more vertical and W we can get the WAA and wedge of high pressure then obviously the better but what the models might not be seeing yet is a trigger low or slider that comes S on E flank.

    That of course can't happen if the wedge is tilted more toward Scandi but the more W and vertical it is the more likely that becomes which would be the quickest route to a beast from the east scenario .

    That trigger low would be modelled somewhere between 120 and 144 currently so if it is at all likely we should see it modelled in the next couple of days in one or two of the Ops

    gensnh-17-1-144.png

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    ...lastly for a mean that is not a bad 850s profile at t204...

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    .....goodnight...

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    Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire / Derbyshire border
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm spring, hot summers
  • Location: Staffordshire / Derbyshire border
    3 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

    Not boring at all. Keep em coming. 

    I agree, my birthday day is in February and I often get a snow treat.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    13 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    *accidentally hit the post button too fast LOL 

    I seen quite a few mentioning February 1991, still a few years before my D.O.B however I checked the MJO archive and very interesting the January phases were also 2 + 3 

    199101-phase-90days.gif

    Fab showings on the 18z GEFS as some others have eluded to 😈

    gensnh-21-1-252.png gensnh-28-1-312.png

    gensnh-10-1-312.png animqbk9.gif

    gensnh-9-1-240-1.png 

    My #1 of this particular suite animrkh7.gif

     

    images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR7tjLpry5vOeeSuXnKBgA

    Further thoroughly enthralling times 

     

     

    Yep your favourite one looks great. Could cause us a few problems though 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Well, well, well. GFS is on board! I find this more noteworthy as typically the 00z is the stinker of the day that’s my observation. 
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    UKMO/GFS 96h comparison

    UN96-21.GIF?31-05gfsnh-0-96.png

    UKMO/GFS 144h comparison

    UN144-21.GIF?31-05gfsnh-0-144.png

     

    That is decent UKMO and the fact GFS is quite different even by 96h is  likely testament to the fact it has become insane rather than it putting forward a logical argument. 

    TWT

    Edited by Mucka
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