Model Output Discussion - Into February

[northwestsnow]

GFS day 9

Edited January 31, 2023 by northwestsnow

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS day 9

Awesome , but don’t want to get sucked in just yet

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Awesome , but don’t want to get sucked in just yet

ukmo/gfs

GEM

Edited January 31, 2023 by northwestsnow

[Daniel*]

Well I think UKMO is really quite good interpretations may differ!  Setting up a well positioned Scandi high to drag polar continental air west. 

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well I think UKMO is really quite good interpretations may differ!  Setting up a well positioned Scandi high to drag polar continental air west. 

Looks very good indeed.

[Lukesluckybunch]

17 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Looks very good indeed.

Gfs was the one looked good good!this set up looks marginal to me?

[Lukesluckybunch]

the control is looking pretty awsome at 204

[northwestsnow]

Control is lovely

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Control is lovely

the mean pretty decent too

[Lukesluckybunch]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Control is lovely

what do you think of the UKMO?northwest

[Nick2373]

 

18z again showing more members dropping down below average, will this trend continue this time yesterday there were quite a few writing February off. 

Goes to show that anything past five days can sometimes not be the case. 

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

what do you think of the UKMO?northwest

Not sure.

A lot depends on the Atlantic sector..

 

[Weather-history]

 

A comparison between 31st January 1991 and UKMO 168hrs

 

[KTtom]

Dream land or not, thats quite a chart from gfs for mid month based on where we are currently...

 

[northwestsnow]

EC follows UKMO at 96

[Lukesluckybunch]

144 ECM looks primed with a nice curve of the HP into scandi

[That ECM]

T168 all 3.  Going to be a good watch over the coming days.

[feb1991blizzard]

Strat is burning, charts are turning,

Merry Easter every one,

we're gonna have a party tonight.

[northwestsnow]

Day 8

so close

[northwestsnow]

EC is sub zero by night by the 8th in the SE esp..

[goosey007]

Better looking cold plunge on the ecm 0z v 12z and the coldest air further west at a slightly earlier time frame …..interesting times ahead one feels …..so nearly

[Jacob Gamer]

Very interesting GFS! 
Could just be a false anomaly but the other models are also lining up with its predictions. Beast From The East’s return???

Edited January 31, 2023 by Jacob Gamer

[northwestsnow]

By day 9 and 10 EC det is very cold.

 

[Nick2373]

 

00z still showing some sort of possible trend to something colder, far cry from yesterday when the month is gone brigade quotes where passed around. Today will be the one to watch to see if the trends keeps going to something more notable. 

[carinthian]

On 28/01/2023 at 08:23, carinthian said:

Not the best of starts but there  is quite a difference between GFS/ ECM ops at 240t. After the  short stormy spell mid -week across Northern Britain late Tues in to Wed , the direction of the vortex lobe as  it drops into The Labrador Sea comes into play. Most runs show a lateral flux in energy at high latitudes , so British Isles not in a good place for any meridional surge in high pressure as shown by ECM latest run. However, GFS still offers a beacon of light to develop a colder scenario should the lateral gods of that huge PV  align the lobe differently. Still I think there remains uncertainty in the models at 168t. In the meanwhile some quite cold days in the forecast over the coming  6 days or so , especially further north.

C

A good morning to all.  Seems like the lateral gods are moving more favourable for UK coldies going by this mornings models. The day 10 chart from GFS has UK primed for some notable CAA . ECM orientation of the high to the east not as good for depth of cold this but never less looks quite set for a colder duration. Of course we have been down the route of Eastern Promise many times for you guys. We need to see that chart below in place at 96t to then feel confident about hitting the jackpot. Overall , a big upgrade in potential from all the models this morning. Long may it continue !

C