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Model Output Discussion - Into February


damianslaw
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland

image.png

 

That is some contrast between  North and South on the 6th. Hard to believe this chart will come off as is! I would like this to come to fruition if it led to a low stalling  across  parts of Ireland and England resulting in a two day blizzard before moving back south or south west. That way Scotland and the North East of England might get snow showers. Much of England, Wales and Ireland could have heavy frontal snow, and finally as the low pushes back south, colder air from the North or North East makes it way down south again. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Just now, Methuselah said:

Cold weather incoming: yes; snow for many: yes... But, date records, I'm nae so sure. 🤔

"Cold weather coming" should probably be in the not so sure category, too. We're yet to see a consistent & strong signal for proper cold weather into the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset

T144 looks about where we should pause before any WAA may occur. In order, ECM/UKMO/GEFS/GEM and included a 6z CFS.

Could contain: Graphics, Art, Accessories, Modern Art, Pattern, OutdoorsUN144-21.thumb.gif.fcac61379af398471ed04960dac6a971.gifCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, NatureCould contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

 

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Good effort at a cross model agreement before picking apart.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
15 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

image.png

 

That is some contrast between  North and South on the 6th. Hard to believe this chart will come off as is! I would like this to come to fruition if it led to a low stalling  across  parts of Ireland and England resulting in a two day blizzard before moving back south or south west. That way Scotland and the North East of England might get snow showers. Much of England, Wales and Ireland could have heavy frontal snow, and finally as the low pushes back south, colder air from the North or North East makes it way down south again. 

Zero chance of verifying....

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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
22 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM is absolutely Brutal.  That is date record cold breaking.   Snow not rain is in order.  I see the MetO are now saying Arctic air is to flood UK in March.  Yep we know

 

image.thumb.gif.39b8d8c1d6ad5a2b6fc9407c3854b406.gif

 

BFTP

Is there any accompanying 2m temperature and dewpoint data for this ECM run on 4th March, which would help to support these assertions?

Edited by The Enforcer
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset
5 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Is there any accompanying 2m temperature and dewpoint data for the ECM on 4th March, which would help to support these assertions?

I think Meteologix has all the parameters that Meteociel doesn't.

https://meteologix.com/uk/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/dewpoint/20230304-1200z.html

Edited by RainAllNight
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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, warm thundery summers, sunshine (and lots of it)
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids

Think the model term 'GFS' should be banned from the boards. Utterly shocking performance recently.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London
15 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

"Cold weather coming" should probably be in the not so sure category, too. We're yet to see a consistent & strong signal for proper cold weather into the UK.

I really don't understand this comment. 

How do you define "consistent & strong" and how do you define "proper cold weather" ?

There is a strong and consistent signal for a build of heights to the north of the British Isles and that's about as far as I would go tonight. There are plenty of models offering full retrogression but not all (GEM).

If retrogression is achieved, what then? ECM, GFS Control and JMA certainly offer the prospect of a cold incursion from the north and north east but GFS OP for example moves us to a west-based NAO, at least for a period with a potentially much milder but very wet spell for England and Wales while Scotland remains in a colder regime with snow especially to higher ground.

Given I have experienced lying snow in East London at the end of March, I don't rule out the possibility of a repeat - the more sensible option would be to suggest any incursion of a colder regime is likely to favour snow in the north and especially over higher ground so the Highlands, Pennines etc would be favoured (as you would expect).

How long such a severe spell would last I don't know - to get even a week of severe cold is difficult and I suspect we'd soon see the really cold uppers mixed out in the south. The after effects of the SSW (in terms of northern blocking and a weak Atlantic) may be with us for several weeks but as we know such patterns aren't uncommon in April and May.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
13 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Is there any accompanying 2m temperature and dewpoint data for this ECM run on 4th March, which would help to support these assertions?

Ice Day for many midlands north, north of M4 1-3c.  Very cold baring in mind this is the start of the cold period. Snow cover will be colder. 
 

Very cold for sure, doubt this will break records but it’s a start 

 

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850s between -6c and -13c!! 🥶

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Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
57 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Won’t the anti clockwise motion on the upstream troughing take that nw and allow a build of heights into Greenland at day 9.

It did but it was closer than I'd have liked. Somehow manages to pull it out of the bag but not perfect by any means at D9 and D10. I'd prefer more latitude on the block and a deeper, more unstable trough pushing down through the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
33 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM is absolutely Brutal.  That is date record cold breaking.   Snow not rain is in order.  I see the MetO are now saying Arctic air is to flood UK in March.  Yep we know

 

image.thumb.gif.39b8d8c1d6ad5a2b6fc9407c3854b406.gif

 

BFTP

That isn't date record breaking.

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Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
14 minutes ago, Stuie said:

T144 looks about where we should pause before any WAA may occur. In order, ECM/UKMO/GEFS/GEM and included a 6z CFS.

Could contain: Graphics, Art, Accessories, Modern Art, Pattern, OutdoorsUN144-21.thumb.gif.fcac61379af398471ed04960dac6a971.gifCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, NatureCould contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

 

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Good effort at a cross model agreement before picking apart.

 

@CoventryWeather You better ban all models.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

That isn't date record breaking.

I think BFTP got a tad carried away 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
6 minutes ago, stodge said:

I really don't understand this comment. 

How do you define "consistent & strong" and how do you define "proper cold weather" ?

I'll use the 12z GEFS ensembles to answer this question as they go out the furthest.

Could contain: Chart

There is a HUGE amount of spread, lots of different solutions & possibilities being thrown out as modelling tries to resolve things. Yes, it seems very likely we will see high pressure retrogressing NWards, but as we've seen how and when that happens isn't resolved. It could be that high pressure retrogresses too far and like the 12z GFS det we end up with very mild weather across the UK instead. 

It could be, like the ECM the high retrogresses towards Greenland, blocks off the Atlantic & we end up seeing very cold air plunging south. The constant flip-flopping between these two broader solutions & the huge ensemble spread means we still can't be sure of whether we're going to see cold or mild, and if we do see cold, how cold? A retrogressing high is just part of the equation. 

As for how I define "proper cold weather", for March i'd define it (and this just personally) as sub -8C at 850hPa.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
10 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

That isn't date record breaking.

Let’s have a cheeky £5 that this set up will…but of cse it’s subjective re timing re incoming 👌🏻

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM mean is pretty poor if im honest.

Yep not a great mean

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Follows the op in as such as heights aren't really far enough N for a true Greenland HP. It's nowhere near on the mean. Perhaps we will have to wait until further into March for the AO to properly fall away into negative values.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM mean is pretty poor if im honest.

Then show it…..Edited….ahh yes but 3/4 March?  Not the ‘landing, time.  All fine imo

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset
15 minutes ago, stodge said:

I really don't understand this comment. 

How do you define "consistent & strong" and how do you define "proper cold weather" ?

There is a strong and consistent signal for a build of heights to the north of the British Isles and that's about as far as I would go tonight. There are plenty of models offering full retrogression but not all (GEM).

If retrogression is achieved, what then? ECM, GFS Control and JMA certainly offer the prospect of a cold incursion from the north and north east but GFS OP for example moves us to a west-based NAO, at least for a period with a potentially much milder but very wet spell for England and Wales while Scotland remains in a colder regime with snow especially to higher ground.

Given I have experienced lying snow in East London at the end of March, I don't rule out the possibility of a repeat - the more sensible option would be to suggest any incursion of a colder regime is likely to favour snow in the north and especially over higher ground so the Highlands, Pennines etc would be favoured (as you would expect).

How long such a severe spell would last I don't know - to get even a week of severe cold is difficult and I suspect we'd soon see the really cold uppers mixed out in the south. The after effects of the SSW (in terms of northern blocking and a weak Atlantic) may be with us for several weeks but as we know such patterns aren't uncommon in April and May.

You and Met4Cast seem to agree with one another.

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Then show it

 

BFTP 

Its all at least 10 days away......that says it all!!!

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