Model Output Discussion - Into February

[LRD]

11 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

The party's in our back yard for once then?!

Yep. Just bring a waterproof for the cold (or warm) drizzle

[Battleground Snow]

There is quite a big shift in the ensembles post day 10, a fair few are now showing high pressure ridging through the UK towards scandi.

This one is the pick of the bunch, but there are many with good synoptic set ups for cold 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[Purga]

A repeating theme that GFS keeps popping up just when we think 'it's all over' !

At least it keeps some modicum of interest going amidst all the doom and gloom

I wouldn't kick P14 out of bed for sure

Edited January 27, 2023 by Purga

[feb1991blizzard]

Not enough support, this chart is a reasonable match for a certain historic event - possibly 2 of them - both in Feb.

[Bricriu]

 

15 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

There is quite a big shift in the ensembles post day 10, a fair few are now showing high pressure ridging through the UK towards scandi.

It will be a spectacular win for the GFS op if it is right against the Ensembles. The GFS will be forgiven for all its past mistakes this winter. 

[Battleground Snow]

15 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

 

It will be a spectacular win for the GFS op if it is right against the Ensembles. The GFS will be forgiven for all its past mistakes this winter. 

I'm fairly confident of high pressure heading through the UK north over the next 8-10 days, what comes after is more in the balance, no doubting the tpv to the north west is huge and always risks too much energy over the top, but we may have a few bites at getting a favourable orientation 

Edited January 28, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[Don]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not enough support, this chart is a reasonable match for a certain historic event - possibly 2 of them - both in Feb.

1991 being one at least!

[Polaris]

30 minutes ago, Purga said:

A repeating theme that GFS keeps popping up just when we think 'it's all over' !

At least it keeps some modicum of interest going amidst all the doom and gloom

I wouldn't kick P14 out of bed for sure

Agree, definitely of note that the GFS coughs up an easterly over past few days. 

If it were the other way round with westerlies into a modelled block, you could bet it was on it with a trend for other models to fall in suit. 

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Don said:

1991 being one at least!

yes - 09 the other - they both had nice curvature in the isobars within the cold upper trough giving more prolonged snow, one delivered spectacularly for me, the other didn't

[snowray]

Clear outlier of course. Still nice to see these sort of runs popping up even if it's just for the fun of it, may still get a decent cold spell next month at some point, far too early to tell.

 

[icykev]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Clear outlier of course. Still nice to see these sort of runs popping up even if it's just for the fun of it, may still get a decent cold spell next month at some point, far too early to tell.

 

Not really, the control and a few others follow it for the majority. Only at the end it is an outlier.

Great model watching, I think the "pros" may have already burst their weather balloon so to speak

We shall see, but I can't see the Atlantic winning, just fizzlers until the block will hold

 

[snowray]

6 minutes ago, icykev said:

Not really, the control and a few others follow it for the majority. Only at the end it is an outlier.

Great model watching, I think the "pros" may have already burst their weather balloon so to speak

We shall see, but I can't see the Atlantic winning, just fizzlers until the block will hold

 

I should have been more specific, yes it's the cold end that I was referring to.

[Don]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

yes - 09 the other - they both had nice curvature in the isobars within the cold upper trough giving more prolonged snow, one delivered spectacularly for me, the other didn't

Of course, February 2009.  Both delivered for me, but 2009 produced more snow, although it didn't last as long on the ground as it did in 1991.

Edited January 28, 2023 by Don

[icykev]

16 minutes ago, snowray said:

I should have been more specific, yes it's the cold end that I was referring to.

Nice to see as you say I think a chilly/cold 2nd week of Feb is still up for grabs fwiw.

I also think we still have a good chance of cold at some point before we are done, just hoping its not late March early April

Edited January 28, 2023 by icykev

[Don]

11 minutes ago, icykev said:

Nice to see as you say I think a chilly/cold 2nd week of Feb is still up for grabs fwiw.

I also think we still have a good chance of cold at some point before we are done, just hoping its not late March early April

Can't be ruled out, think 1989 and 2008 for example!

[festivalking]

Come the morning come the pub run hangover. Op drops it. Hence I'm the first post of the day.

 

 

[Kentspur]

And back down to earth this morning again with just a few sub -5c ensembles showing for London including the op briefly but getting into February and the strengthening sun issue it prob wont cut it down south

 

[KTtom]

Well, Im defeated, spent half hour but still cant find a chart of any interest to post...typical NW / SE split for the foreseeable. 

 

Edit: Interesting for the wrong reasons but look how quick the SPV starts to heal once the warming attacks petter out..

Edited January 28, 2023 by KTtom

[nick sussex]

A woeful start to the day for coldies with the rampant PV to the nw relentless.

We’ve seen over the last week desperate attempts by the models to try and ridge the high further north at varying times all of which have failed to last more than a few runs .

At the same time any glancing blows of cold once modelled over the UK get shunted further east with time .

Its a race against time now to salvage a wintry spell before spring. I really am not a fan of cold springs but I fear this might be the case this year .

Edited January 28, 2023 by nick sussex

[Guest]

It's looking dry here until at least the 7th February so the much touted unsettled start to February doesn't really look like materialising for Central and Southern regions at least. Always more unsettled further north, pretty bog standard stuff to be honest.

 

Edited January 28, 2023 by Guest

[northwestsnow]

As I feared the PV is too strong.

Pretty much given up on an Easterly yet again another Winter with zero in the way of Easterly winds.

Probably be Mid March onwards when to be Frank  it's just a kick in the wetsuits..

 

[nick sussex]

I’m just putting up the day 6 ECM charts for pressure and the anomaly.

You can see why the latter can often mislead .

You could be mistaken for thinking with the latter that the UK was in a cold ne flow .

I’m not a great fan of anomaly charts ! 

[carinthian]

47 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A woeful start to the day for coldies with the rampant PV to the nw relentless.

We’ve seen over the last week desperate attempts by the models to try and ridge the high further north at varying times all of which have failed to last more than a few runs .

At the same time any glancing blows of cold once modelled over the UK get shunted further east with time .

Its a race against time now to salvage a wintry spell before spring. I really am not a fan of cold springs but I fear this might be the case this year .

Not the best of starts but there  is quite a difference between GFS/ ECM ops at 240t. After the  short stormy spell mid -week across Northern Britain late Tues in to Wed , the direction of the vortex lobe as  it drops into The Labrador Sea comes into play. Most runs show a lateral flux in energy at high latitudes , so British Isles not in a good place for any meridional surge in high pressure as shown by ECM latest run. However, GFS still offers a beacon of light to develop a colder scenario should the lateral gods of that huge PV  align the lobe differently. Still I think there remains uncertainty in the models at 168t. In the meanwhile some quite cold days in the forecast over the coming  6 days or so , especially further north.

C

[Gowon]

57 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A woeful start to the day for coldies with the rampant PV to the nw relentless.

We’ve seen over the last week desperate attempts by the models to try and ridge the high further north at varying times all of which have failed to last more than a few runs .

At the same time any glancing blows of cold once modelled over the UK get shunted further east with time .

Its a race against time now to salvage a wintry spell before spring. I really am not a fan of cold springs but I fear this might be the case this year .

We've also seen the block hanging around longer than anticipated once we get into higher resolution - ignoring the UKMO's version which is dreadful, the day 5 charts look quite promising, so I'm not giving up yet.

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Gowon said:

We've also seen the block hanging around longer than anticipated once we get into higher resolution - ignoring the UKMO's version which is dreadful, the day 5 charts look quite promising, so I'm not giving up yet.

I admire your fortitude ! 

Just been looking through the ECM ensembles . All I can say is oh dear !