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Model Output Discussion - Into February


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
5 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Isn't it nearly always the case that when we have a model stand off with two clear options that the end result is a hybrid? 

 

Let’s hope that’s not the case this time ! We should know by this evening . 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Location: Port Talbot

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Line Chart

 

06z not bad are we going to see just below average, I think the 12z will be the decider in terms of where the heights can sit and will they hold the jet back.

if this happens we may see a further drop in temperatures.  

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
1 hour ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Wow...look at the 6z ens..looks like the graph of a lie detector test I took recently.. 

A colder cluster and a few hints of something much colder.

I don't care what you lot or me mother says..if we count down to another cold spell,I'm going bare back down our country lane.. you know what I mean 😉 

Hey folks just had a thought..imagine if some of us cold lovers had to do a monthly update for the public everyday! We would be advising that we need to evacuate the Northern Hemisphere...and probably draw a line from the M4 corridor South as being in the safe zone..🤣

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Smoke Pipe

Could contain: Plot, Chart

snow-funny.gif

Not this time east Kent looks colder than London in most means.

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Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Very funny ! You should all be happy as since I got back from Cyprus it’s hardly rained in the UK ! 

I’m here to suffer with my fellow coldies ! 

I did sense a more interested input just recently ...makes sense now 😉

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

ICON a little flatter to day 6, let’s hope the others trend the other way. I think we should all be very weary that the charts showing BFTE type set ups are extremely unlikely - but everything is crossed in this household. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ICON is a bit meh so far  . More progressive with the PV and associated troughing .

Directly related to Exeter mentioning a small chance of an easterly ….. prepare for a Canadian tpv on steroids then ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

The high doesn't sink , it appears to be taking the long route 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Slight differences between gfs and UKMO at day 4 🤷‍♂️

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

5FC3D5A6-AABA-40B1-819A-7E7466A641F5.gif

Slight differences between gfs and UKMO at day 4 🤷‍♂️

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, ICE COLD said:

Slight differences between gfs and UKMO at day 4 🤷‍♂️

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

5FC3D5A6-AABA-40B1-819A-7E7466A641F5.gif

Slight differences between gfs and UKMO at day 4 🤷‍♂️

The GFS phases the UKMO low with the PV . From as early as day 3 it’s evident  they can’t evolve the same way .

Quite extraordinary that there’s no agreement from that stage .

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Just now, nick sussex said:

The GFS phases the UKMO low with the PV . From as early as day 3 it’s evident  they can’t evolve the same way .

Quite extraordinary that there’s no agreement from that stage .

Which is best going forward in your view,

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

I honestly think we should bin off the gfs op . There is no way it beats the UKMO at days 3 and 4 it should be banned from netweather lol 

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Just now, ICE COLD said:

I honestly think we should bin off the gfs op . There is no way it beats the UKMO at days 3 and 4 it should be banned from netweather lol 

I'm minded to agree... Still not forgiven it for Greenland high debacle around Christmas 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Slight differences between gfs and UKMO at day 4 🤷‍♂️

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

5FC3D5A6-AABA-40B1-819A-7E7466A641F5.gif

Slight differences between gfs and UKMO at day 4 🤷‍♂️

Absolutely wild, hard to back GFS at this point in time must be said. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Which is best going forward in your view,

The GFS looks the quickest way to an easterly. By day 5 the trigger shortwave has ejected cleanly. 

The UKMO will take a lot longer if it ever gets there !

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS phases the UKMO low with the PV . From as early as day 3 it’s evident  they can’t evolve the same way .

Quite extraordinary that there’s no agreement from that stage .

Gem does the same as the GFS tbf... Fascinating  stuff either way

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't want GFS following icon!!

It's looking better so far

Could contain: Plot, Chart, MapCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Map, Nature

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The UKMO hits the buffers by day 6 . Very poor at that stage and I don’t see how it salvages anything from that point .

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

GEM looks more like the GFS than the UKMO . So far GFS GEM vs UKMO ICON 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

82D2607C-0938-4837-96D0-1F2100A93E86.gif

Edited by seabreeze86
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS phases the UKMO low with the PV . From as early as day 3 it’s evident  they can’t evolve the same way .

Quite extraordinary that there’s no agreement from that stage .

Fl always moves to closer time frame on this type of scenario, I think it's just working out how different models handle things, which is the only reason why I'm wondering what the UK met model has taken, as the low is stronger so goes east, while the GFS is weaker and absorbes. Normally you'd expect the GFS to over do lows, till day four then weaken them, so I think it's right, as that's basically why it's output changed yesterday.

Edited by alexisj9
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