Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

Temps coldest down that Eastern flank of the UK on this run. Not quite as cold and the high rather than retrogressing northwestward collapses over the UK. Hoping to see improvement there and also the effects of the 2nd warming!! 

Well the good news is that there is improvement in GFS ensembles and thus a better mean at 144 with a little more hint of undercut.

And the Control does undercut the low post 144 which undermines the Operational output.

And of course the UKMO 168 chart is phenomenal and about to draw in some extremely cold air from the NE. We will do well to get something this good.

 

Edited February 27, 2023 by Mucka

[Matt Jones]

A lot of faith put in the ukmo model but countless times it has failed us at 144-168 hrs, concerning is the lack of push south of the really cold air to the north with no certainty it will after 144hrs, battleground not really that good for many areas with the very cold air not in place initially. Really want to see the cold uppers flooding in from the north, we shall see.

[MJB]

GFS Control is a cracker

45 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

A lot of faith put in the ukmo model but countless times it has failed us at 144-168 hrs, concerning is the lack of push south of the really cold air to the north with no certainty it will after 144hrs, battleground not really that good for many areas with the very cold air not in place initially. Really want to see the cold uppers flooding in from the north, we shall see.

To counter that comment too much belief is also put in the GFS OP - let's be fair up above is a right jigsaw puzzle to solve .

Edited February 27, 2023 by MJB

[Lukesluckybunch]

UKMO 168 looks nice...little if any sign of Atlantic break through there..I think a northeasterly pattern may well develop after this timeframe..could become very cold!

Edited February 27, 2023 by Lukesluckybunch
Spelling

[KTtom]

Dont think we are any closer yet to finding next weeks likely pattern...UKMO 168, as others have said look good, GFS control gets an outing which says it all about the op. Need to see something consistant within 144 over the next day or so. Increasing colder members from the 6th..?

[Ali1977]

Great UKMO this morning, and the ECM looks primed at 144 - hoping for no breakdown like the GFS 

[feb1991blizzard]

kabunkam!

Edited February 27, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[andymusic]

8 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

I'd say the models are picking up the second warming now and are realising its a fatal blow to the vortex and the whole Northern hemisphere pattern is being turned on its head. Starting to look like quite an exceptional event now. Of course as well flagged the fact its March means severity will be a good deal less (how much so is yet to be decided)

NOPE - The SEVERITY will be full on - models are defo waking up to the fact that the double strat warming has taken place and is gonna hurt lol

[Lukesluckybunch]

ECM looks quite fine at 168..192 chart im not so sure looks like the atlantic could win out here..hopefully it will slide under

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

kabunkam!

It's a battle though..to the southwest and monster cold northeast

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM looks quite fine at 168..192 chart im not so sure looks like the atlantic could win out here..hopefully it will slide under

It's a battle though..to the southwest and monster cold northeast

which means snow

Edited February 27, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Ali1977]

Midlands north battle ground at 192, could drop south at 216 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Everything is too marginal..the only decent output is from the UKMO it seems..even the ECM the real cold air from the East never reaches us

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Everything is too marginal..the only decent output is from the UKMO it seems..even the ECM the real cold air from the East never reaches us

It’s awesome at 216 and marginal heading colder is exactly what we need 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Spoke too soon..216 looks alright

Just now, Ali1977 said:

It’s awesome at 216 and marginal heading colder is exactly what we need 

Yes ali..good luck trying to find your way out of that cold..!haha

[Paul]

Locking this one now - new thread open here (with posts from this morning to get it started)

https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98450-model-output-discussion-a-cold-start-to-spring/