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Model Output Discussion - Into February


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

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Posted
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level

A lot of faith put in the ukmo model but countless times it has failed us at 144-168 hrs, concerning is the lack of push south of the really cold air to the north with no certainty it will after 144hrs, battleground not really that good for many areas with the very cold air not in place initially. Really want to see the cold uppers flooding in from the north, we shall see.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury

gensnh-0-1-192.png

GFS Control is a cracker

45 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

A lot of faith put in the ukmo model but countless times it has failed us at 144-168 hrs, concerning is the lack of push south of the really cold air to the north with no certainty it will after 144hrs, battleground not really that good for many areas with the very cold air not in place initially. Really want to see the cold uppers flooding in from the north, we shall see.

To counter that comment too much belief is also put in the GFS OP - let's be fair up above is a right jigsaw puzzle to solve .

Edited by MJB
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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Dont think we are any closer yet to finding next weeks likely pattern...UKMO 168, as others have said look good, GFS control gets an outing which says it all about the op. Need to see something consistant within 144 over the next day or so. Increasing colder members from the 6th..?

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Great UKMO this morning, and the ECM looks primed at 144 - hoping for no breakdown like the GFS 

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
8 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

I'd say the models are picking up the second warming now and are realising its a fatal blow to the vortex and the whole Northern hemisphere pattern is being turned on its head. Starting to look like quite an exceptional event now. Of course as well flagged the fact its March means severity will be a good deal less (how much so is yet to be decided)

NOPE - The SEVERITY will be full on - models are defo waking up to the fact that the double strat warming has taken place and is gonna hurt lol

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

ECM looks quite fine at 168..192 chart im not so sure looks like the atlantic could win out here..hopefully it will slide under

It's a battle though..to the southwest and monster cold northeast

which means snow

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Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Midlands north battle ground at 192, could drop south at 216 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Everything is too marginal..the only decent output is from the UKMO it seems..even the ECM the real cold air from the East never reaches us

It’s awesome at 216 and marginal heading colder is exactly what we need 

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