Model Output Discussion - Into February

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

I’m just putting up the day 6 ECM charts for pressure and the anomaly.

You can see why the latter can often mislead .

You could be mistaken for thinking with the latter that the UK was in a cold ne flow .

I’m not a great fan of anomaly charts ! 

yes - that anomaly would be good if it were an ensemble mean at D15 or a D10 to 15 op average - rubbish as a D6 op chart.

[LRD]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

I’m just putting up the day 6 ECM charts for pressure and the anomaly.

You can see why the latter can often mislead .

You could be mistaken for thinking with the latter that the UK was in a cold ne flow .

I’m not a great fan of anomaly charts ! 

Yep. I said similar on the old thread just before it closed. Anomaly charts often look spectacular (even the longer range ensemble mean charts) but they are very misleading especially for people new to viewing weather models

The ECM extended ensemble clusters often have dark red anomalies over Greenland and Scandi but very often do not verify or they do verify but do not result in anything near as dramatic as the charts might suggest

The main 3 models are looking very boring with nothing conditions in the reliable. Nothing cold and, in fact, hints of very mild conditions in the distant future

[ANYWEATHER]

Plenty of settled dry weather to come especially for southern Britain,  the northern half at times being some what more unsettled, but even here having some settled spells as well. Plenty of ridging going on, still wondering where it will finally end up,  but nontheless the much touted stormy spell does not look for most to going to happen......☺

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

Pretty much a 3 way split - cluster 1 follows most of the op runs this morning with the UK in a modest ridge, cluster 2 is just awful, but cluster 3 looks quite interesting, not a solution seen on any of the op runs today though.

T264+

Not much opportunity for cold, but the split seems to be wet and Atlantic dominated in cluster 1 or dryer with mid lat block in cluster 2.  Hard to see much potential until beyond this timeframe i.e.beyond mid Feb.  

[mushymanrob]

Im not going to win any popularity points with this post, lol..
I cant see a scandinavian high establishing, and whilst the anomalies under estimated the building high by early feb, it doesnt mean a scandi high is likely IMHO.

As i see it, things are still likely to turn stormy, with unsettled westerlies. With the TPV driving extreme cold out of Northern Canada over the North Atlantic where not only will it phase with TM air, its crossing SSTs with quite a +ive anomaly. imho thats a recipe for cyclogenesis and a stormy, strong jet.

[LRD]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters T192-T240:

Pretty much a 3 way split - cluster 1 follows most of the op runs this morning with the UK in a modest ridge, cluster 2 is just awful, but cluster 3 looks quite interesting, not a solution seen on any of the op runs today though.

T264+

Not much opportunity for cold, but the split seems to be wet and Atlantic dominated in cluster 1 or dryer with mid lat block in cluster 2.  Hard to see much potential until beyond this timeframe i.e.beyond mid Feb.  

Those 2 longer range clusters look very mild. Possibly extremely mild depending on how wet and stormy (or not) it turns out to be. A high anomaly in places where pressure is usually relatively high is a strong old signal

[E17boy]

Morning peeps,

Not the best of mornings for coldies, we are now today on 28th of Jan dare I say my eyes are beginning to see faint imprints of writing on the wall for the rest of what is left of winter, and this writing does not scream potential.

I wish there was something I could see but nothing interesting yet. Who knows weather is weather and it can change. My only fear now is that I hope that faint writing on the wall does not become darker in the coming days . Here still sitting  and hoping for some turnaround into mid Feb.

Have a great Saturday all 

[goosey007]

Looking by the latest out output looks like any cold snowy weather will only possible post mid Feb …. But let’s not write off winter just yet many forces at play with each other and none of us truely understand…..

[Battleground Snow]

At least the GFS gives us something to watch, anything of note before day 10 looks unlikely at moment 

[Polar Maritime]

Tue/We'd still of interest for the North and a deep Low spins in off the Atlantic, Gales heavy rain/snow and blizzards for some in the Highlands.

 

 

[andymusic]

9 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Looking by the latest out output looks like any cold snowy weather will only possible post mid Feb …. But let’s not write off winter just yet many forces at play with each other and none of us truely understand…..

yes much too early to write it off - don't forget models only really good up to 7-10 days - takes us to about end of 1st week of feb - 3 weeks of feb and all of march still to come - who knows what lovely coldie surprises await us - don't forget the saying "more likely to snow during easter than xmas" and we've already had two cold spells also anyway - but a third or fourth isn't off the cards just yet - don't throw them towels in just yet - this time of the year is when things can get extremely interesting for coldies.

[Guest]

GFS F.I. = LOL!

[Methuselah]

Ah... Just what the GFS is good at... Not that I'd mind, mind!

[snowray]

So close, and yet so far again. Could mid February still by up for grabs?

 

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, KTtom said:

Well, Im defeated, spent half hour but still cant find a chart of any interest to post...typical NW / SE split for the foreseeable. 

 

Edit: Interesting for the wrong reasons but look how quick the SPV starts to heal once the warming attacks petter out..

Over where a block for an easterly would be, might mean the main vortex would end up there, so possible northerly. Probably won't do anything down here, but it would be proper cold uppers, unlike the last few. We'll see later on. With the upper vortex there, a high ending up there is a very long shot.

[snowray]

The HP inevitably sinks, temps possibly rising into the mid/high teens in late Feb if anything like this was to verify. In years past you would have expected at least one decent North/North Easterly showing up in the last month of Winter.

 

 

[sebastiaan1973]

Indeed, what an exceptional anti-cyclone. Record for the Netherlands is 1050 hPa. Article by Burt.

The Highest of the Highs … Extremes of barometric pressure in the British Isles, Part 2 – the most intense anticyclones - Burt - 2007 - Weather - Wiley Online Library

The all-time UK record is 1053.6 mb recorded at Aberdeen Observatory on January 31, 1902. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.35

Edited January 28, 2023 by sebastiaan1973

[snowray]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Indeed, what an exceptional anti-cyclone. Record for the Netherlands is 1050 hPa. 

Probably quite cold under that, frosty nights.

[sebastiaan1973]

GFS underestimates the cold. 

[danm]

13 minutes ago, snowray said:

The HP inevitably sinks, temps possibly rising into the mid/high teens in late Feb if anything like this was to verify. In years past you would have expected at least one decent North/North Easterly showing up in the last month of Winter.

 

 

Quite frankly if it’s a choice between settled, dry and mild vs wet and windy, I’ll take this all day long. 

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Probably quite cold under that, frosty nights.

I guess it would depend on cloud amounts: Were it to be clear, cold nights would be offset by mildish daytime maxes; should it be a dirty high, I might just jump out of the window!

[Chesil View]

Well the last few days have seen the models produce easterlies and rain sodden stormy westerlies in the medium to long term which pretty much shows how incoherent they are past 144.  

As I see it they are battling to guess the strength of the pv versus the strength of the tropical signal to want to move the Euro High North or northeast.  One run they think one thing the next run the opposite. It's a difficult situation and one that makes the models ops look laughable at times for their inconsistency in the medium/longer range.

One can see why the meto are sticking to essentially describing normal climatology in the longer term. Rather than chop and change day in and day out with each op run.

Edited January 28, 2023 by Chesil View

[Cloud 10]

24 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Indeed, what an exceptional anti-cyclone. Record for the Netherlands is 1050 hPa. Article by Burt.

The Highest of the Highs … Extremes of barometric pressure in the British Isles, Part 2 – the most intense anticyclones - Burt - 2007 - Weather - Wiley Online Library

The all-time UK record is 1053.6 mb recorded at Aberdeen Observatory on January 31, 1902. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.35

 

 

Looks fairly familiar....

 

[Duane S.]

Never take a chart in isolation, but this one raises an eyebrow…

And this one most definitely raises both!…

That sort of movement upwards at 30mb is often a precursor to much more interesting weather to follow. We will see.

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Im not going to win any popularity points with this post, lol..
I cant see a scandinavian high establishing, and whilst the anomalies under estimated the building high by early feb, it doesnt mean a scandi high is likely IMHO.

As i see it, things are still likely to turn stormy, with unsettled westerlies. With the TPV driving extreme cold out of Northern Canada over the North Atlantic where not only will it phase with TM air, its crossing SSTs with quite a +ive anomaly. imho thats a recipe for cyclogenesis and a stormy, strong jet.

Maybe not popular but pretty much correct (imo). The amplification needed given the background and initial state don't seem fantastic to me but I wouldn't rule it out. Given the velocity potential irrotational wind vectors and convergence it's not an entirely synoptical cyclogenesis favouring flow though it does look like what you would expect for a general zonal pattern. Perhaps this motion based dynamical flow will slow down in week 2 and the fluid dynamics don't favour such a strong jet but for now it's looking fairly strong. Dynamically though, flow of WAA towards the UK-Scandi base state looks favoured but the chance of a back door cold spell is unlikely in my opinion given both the angle and the Atlantic. Quoting my forecast for the school newspaper from last week;

"For now, it’s looking like it’s going to be warmer than average with precipitation around normal. There may be a cold snap but it’s unlikely we’ll get one on the level of December (at least up till the middle of February) and given the base setup it probably won’t last for long. 

The trend has been to build high pressure into the UK for the first week of February and that looks to stay stable possibly building up the milder air and the dryness as well. "

I'd say that I did quite well though I may have overestimated how stable the high will be.

You can see my point on the GEFS.