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Model Output Discussion - Into February


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    I’m just putting up the day 6 ECM charts for pressure and the anomaly.

    You can see why the latter can often mislead .

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    You could be mistaken for thinking with the latter that the UK was in a cold ne flow .

    I’m not a great fan of anomaly charts ! 

    yes - that anomaly would be good if it were an ensemble mean at D15 or a D10 to 15 op average - rubbish as a D6 op chart.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm springs/summers with thunderstorms, wild/rainy autumns, snow Dec/Jan
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    I’m just putting up the day 6 ECM charts for pressure and the anomaly.

    You can see why the latter can often mislead .

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    You could be mistaken for thinking with the latter that the UK was in a cold ne flow .

    I’m not a great fan of anomaly charts ! 

    Yep. I said similar on the old thread just before it closed. Anomaly charts often look spectacular (even the longer range ensemble mean charts) but they are very misleading especially for people new to viewing weather models

    The ECM extended ensemble clusters often have dark red anomalies over Greenland and Scandi but very often do not verify or they do verify but do not result in anything near as dramatic as the charts might suggest

    The main 3 models are looking very boring with nothing conditions in the reliable. Nothing cold and, in fact, hints of very mild conditions in the distant future

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.
  • Weather Preferences: Love Weather, Hate the Spin and Lies to do with our Planets Climate.
  • Location: Hampton and Fairfield, Evesham , Worcestershire.

    Plenty of settled dry weather to come especially for southern Britain,  the northern half at times being some what more unsettled, but even here having some settled spells as well. Plenty of ridging going on, still wondering where it will finally end up,  but nontheless the much touted stormy spell does not look for most to going to happen......☺

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM clusters T192-T240:

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    Pretty much a 3 way split - cluster 1 follows most of the op runs this morning with the UK in a modest ridge, cluster 2 is just awful, but cluster 3 looks quite interesting, not a solution seen on any of the op runs today though.

    T264+

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    Not much opportunity for cold, but the split seems to be wet and Atlantic dominated in cluster 1 or dryer with mid lat block in cluster 2.  Hard to see much potential until beyond this timeframe i.e.beyond mid Feb.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm springs/summers with thunderstorms, wild/rainy autumns, snow Dec/Jan
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM clusters T192-T240:

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    Pretty much a 3 way split - cluster 1 follows most of the op runs this morning with the UK in a modest ridge, cluster 2 is just awful, but cluster 3 looks quite interesting, not a solution seen on any of the op runs today though.

    T264+

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    Not much opportunity for cold, but the split seems to be wet and Atlantic dominated in cluster 1 or dryer with mid lat block in cluster 2.  Hard to see much potential until beyond this timeframe i.e.beyond mid Feb.  

    Those 2 longer range clusters look very mild. Possibly extremely mild depending on how wet and stormy (or not) it turns out to be. A high anomaly in places where pressure is usually relatively high is a strong old signal

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    Morning peeps,

    Not the best of mornings for coldies, we are now today on 28th of Jan dare I say my eyes are beginning to see faint imprints of writing on the wall for the rest of what is left of winter, and this writing does not scream potential.

    I wish there was something I could see but nothing interesting yet. Who knows weather is weather and it can change. My only fear now is that I hope that faint writing on the wall does not become darker in the coming days . Here still sitting  and hoping for some turnaround into mid Feb.

    Have a great Saturday all 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales

    Looking by the latest out output looks like any cold snowy weather will only possible post mid Feb …. But let’s not write off winter just yet many forces at play with each other and none of us truely understand…..

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Tue/We'd still of interest for the North and a deep Low spins in off the Atlantic, Gales heavy rain/snow and blizzards for some in the Highlands.

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    9 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

    Looking by the latest out output looks like any cold snowy weather will only possible post mid Feb …. But let’s not write off winter just yet many forces at play with each other and none of us truely understand…..

    yes much too early to write it off - don't forget models only really good up to 7-10 days - takes us to about end of 1st week of feb - 3 weeks of feb and all of march still to come - who knows what lovely coldie surprises await us - don't forget the saying "more likely to snow during easter than xmas" and we've already had two cold spells also anyway - but a third or fourth isn't off the cards just yet - don't throw them towels in just yet - this time of the year is when things can get extremely interesting for coldies.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Ah... Just what the GFS is good at... Not that I'd mind, mind!👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

    So close, and yet so far again. Could mid February still by up for grabs?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    4 hours ago, KTtom said:

    Well, Im defeated, spent half hour but still cant find a chart of any interest to post...typical NW / SE split for the foreseeable. 

     

    Edit: Interesting for the wrong reasons but look how quick the SPV starts to heal once the warming attacks petter out..

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    Over where a block for an easterly would be, might mean the main vortex would end up there, so possible northerly. Probably won't do anything down here, but it would be proper cold uppers, unlike the last few. We'll see later on. With the upper vortex there, a high ending up there is a very long shot.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

    The HP inevitably sinks, temps possibly rising into the mid/high teens in late Feb if anything like this was to verify. In years past you would have expected at least one decent North/North Easterly showing up in the last month of Winter.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands

    Indeed, what an exceptional anti-cyclone. Record for the Netherlands is 1050 hPa. Article by Burt.

    The Highest of the Highs … Extremes of barometric pressure in the British Isles, Part 2 – the most intense anticyclones - Burt - 2007 - Weather - Wiley Online Library

    The all-time UK record is 1053.6 mb recorded at Aberdeen Observatory on January 31, 1902. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.35

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    Edited by sebastiaan1973
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
    1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Indeed, what an exceptional anti-cyclone. Record for the Netherlands is 1050 hPa. 

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    Probably quite cold under that, frosty nights.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
    13 minutes ago, snowray said:

    The HP inevitably sinks, temps possibly rising into the mid/high teens in late Feb if anything like this was to verify. In years past you would have expected at least one decent North/North Easterly showing up in the last month of Winter.

     

     

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    Quite frankly if it’s a choice between settled, dry and mild vs wet and windy, I’ll take this all day long. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    8 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Probably quite cold under that, frosty nights.

    I guess it would depend on cloud amounts: Were it to be clear, cold nights would be offset by mildish daytime maxes; should it be a dirty high, I might just jump out of the window!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

    Well the last few days have seen the models produce easterlies and rain sodden stormy westerlies in the medium to long term which pretty much shows how incoherent they are past 144.  

    As I see it they are battling to guess the strength of the pv versus the strength of the tropical signal to want to move the Euro High North or northeast.  One run they think one thing the next run the opposite. It's a difficult situation and one that makes the models ops look laughable at times for their inconsistency in the medium/longer range.

    One can see why the meto are sticking to essentially describing normal climatology in the longer term. Rather than chop and change day in and day out with each op run.

    Edited by Chesil View
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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
    24 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

    Indeed, what an exceptional anti-cyclone. Record for the Netherlands is 1050 hPa. Article by Burt.

    The Highest of the Highs … Extremes of barometric pressure in the British Isles, Part 2 – the most intense anticyclones - Burt - 2007 - Weather - Wiley Online Library

    The all-time UK record is 1053.6 mb recorded at Aberdeen Observatory on January 31, 1902. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.35

     

     

    Looks fairly familiar....

     

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