Model Output Discussion - Into February

[feb1991blizzard]

here we go - round 2, wonder if this is caused by an E.Asian mountain torque event - response to MJO phase 3?.

[Stuie]

Might need a huge pinch of salt with this but looking at the PNA when is a sustained negative, November and December, the UK had cold spells.

The PNA is currently trending towards negative.

Edited January 28, 2023 by Stuie W

[minus10]

8 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Might need a huge pinch of salt with this but looking at the PNA when is a sustained negative, November and December, the UK had cold spells.

The PNA is currently trending towards negative.

PNA ?

[FetchCB]

1 minute ago, minus10 said:

PNA

Google is your friend 

Global Patterns: Pacific/North American | North Carolina Climate Office

LEGACY.CLIMATE.NCSU.EDU

 

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

PNA ?

Pacific / North American trend.

[Northern Sky]

1 hour ago, mulzy said:

If we can’t get snow then this is good enough.  Who wants wind and rain?

Me! I like wind and rain and feel a bit disappointed that the outlook has changed relatively quickly from what looked like a stormy period of weather to boring high pressure dominated dross. I'm sure I'm not the only weather fan to like wind and rain. 

Might animate the GFS later as an aid to sleep. 

[cold snap]

My god . That was a tough watch. 

Zero sign of anything remotely cold on the 12zs.

Edited January 28, 2023 by cold snap

[Gowon]

7 minutes ago, cold snap said:

My god . That was a tough watch. 

Zero sign of anything remotely cold on the 12zs.

There is cold - just not wintry 

[kelal]

24 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Me! I like wind and rain and feel a bit disappointed that the outlook has changed relatively quickly from what looked like a stormy period of weather to boring high pressure dominated dross. I'm sure I'm not the only weather fan to like wind and rain. 

Might animate the GFS later as an aid to sleep. 

I love wind and rain if I can't have cold and snow

[mother nature rocks]

So the models are pretty much aligned with dry dry dry. Plenty of useable weather and much better than it P-ing down all the time. 

Just one more cold snap/ spell would be immense but not gonna happen within next 10 days!! So on that does this high remain cloudy as really want to spot the Green Comet come next week!!

Should be a Right spectacle but nothing beats Hale-Bopp in the 90’s!! 
 

MNR

[Stuie]

@mushymanrob mentioned earlier about a strong jet forming, which looks spot on. He also mentioned about not getting a Scandi HP but looks like a draw.

Further on, the Scandi HP looks to have gone but the jet does sink South of the UK. 

 

All far out but trendish.

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

@mushymanrob mentioned earlier about a strong jet forming, which looks spot on. He also mentioned about not getting a Scandi HP but looks like a draw.

Further on, the Scandi HP looks to have gone but the jet does sink South of the UK. 

 

All far out but trendish.

Extended eps clusters are 50/50 on a scandi high 

[Daniel*]

Well I’m not seeing this wind and rain some are speaking of but Tuesday night is looking stormy for some. Potentially some damaging 80mph+ gusts in far north of Scotland. 

Generally the outlook is benign and probably not far from average temp wise. All a bit boring really! 

[Uncertainty]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps clusters are 50/50 on a scandi high 

It’s blue pill or red pill!

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

here we go - round 2, wonder if this is caused by an E.Asian mountain torque event - response to MJO phase 3?.

Looks to be linked with the vertical drive of thermal Eddy's linked with the UK-Scandi Rossby pattern. GIven the circulation of the Earth and time it will likely take to transport that mass through Brewer-Dobson Circulation in the Stratosphere generally making distribution of planetary Waves including Wave breaking fairly slow. So quick response between Mid Trop and Upper Trop followed by a slow rise from the lower Strat to the upper Strat.

Edited January 28, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[alexisj9]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Extended eps clusters are 50/50 on a scandi high 

So signal still growing then, as it was no where near 50/50 before. Interesting if nothing else. GFS has backed down, wonder if it comes back. I don't expect a scandi my self more vortex to move east high going north west eventually.

[Snowman.]

3 minutes ago, Uncertainty said:

It’s blue pill or red pill!

Wow, proper Scandi with low heights south and everything. 

[Uncertainty]

The mean is also far more amplified, relative to the 0z

 

 

I think we can say now that a return to unsettled westerlies is still favoured after the day 6-9 ridge (uncharacteristic good work from the gfs there). BUT, there is a small but real chance of a scandi or more likely sceuro ridge holding the Atlantic back in the extended.

Zonal Oblivion will have to wait another day.

[ANYWEATHER]

Both ops ecm, gfs show high pressure , mostly in charge say about 80% in the next ten days. The North will see the most unsettled conditions.  The illusive Scandi high will be again Illusive in the next ten days

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Wow, proper Scandi with low heights south and everything. 

 

20 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

So signal still growing then, as it was no where near 50/50 before. Interesting if nothing else. GFS has backed down, wonder if it comes back. I don't expect a scandi my self more vortex to move east high going north west eventually.

checking the stamps on meteociel shows that it’s quite a loose cluster …. Plenty of scandi highs but nowhere near 50% 

Incidentally, the stamps now update v quickly 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

35 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Well I’m not seeing this wind and rain some are speaking of but Tuesday night is looking stormy for some. Potentially some damaging 80mph+ gusts in far north of Scotland. 

Generally the outlook is benign and probably not far from average temp wise. All a bit boring really! 

Normal stuff for that part of the world ,given the time of year....?

[Gowon]

High uncertainty to our north at day 10 compare to the rest of the NH

 

[feb1991blizzard]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

checking the stamps on meteociel shows that it’s quite a loose cluster …. Plenty of scandi highs but nowhere near 50% 

Incidentally, the stamps now update v quickly 

 

The mean / individuals quicker lately as well, think i might of dodged a bullet when it wouldn't let me sign up to weatherbell the other week!, although it does have a few more strat charts from other models inc GEM.

[sunnijim]

2 hours ago, kelal said:

I love wind and rain if I can't have cold and snow

Winter preferences after the obvious  cold and snow would be.

Sunny, cold,and dry with frosty nights.

Named storms or  just high winds and blustery thundery showers that often follow.

No merit imo in the 'at least it will be dry' patter.

Weeks of dross under ridging Azores Highs in winter..

Give me wet and wild anyday.

Edited January 28, 2023 by sunnijim

[Gowon]

1 hour ago, Uncertainty said:

The mean is also far more amplified, relative to the 0z

 

 

I think we can say now that a return to unsettled westerlies is still favoured after the day 6-9 ridge (uncharacteristic good work from the gfs there). BUT, there is a small but real chance of a scandi or more likely sceuro ridge holding the Atlantic back in the extended.

Zonal Oblivion will have to wait another day.

Latest GFS is more amplified to the NE..