Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Eagle Eye]

26 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Winter preferences after the obvious  cold and snow would be.

Sunny, cold,and dry with frosty nights.

Named storms or  just high winds and blustery thundery showers that often follow.

No merit imo in the 'at least it will be dry' patter.

Weeks of dross under ridging Azores Highs in winter..

Give me wet and wild anyday.

I just find any weather where something is moving thrilling. I can't be looking at a blue sky and seeing nothing there just my personal opinion though. Anyway, sorry to derail the thread.

MJO moving in the right direction for late February to early March with lag correlation potentially offering something and this seems like what will end up being the last ditch attempt - if we can't get a fully fledged Scandi high soon - for Winter hopes. 

Edited January 28, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, Uncertainty said:

The mean is also far more amplified, relative to the 0z

 

 

I think we can say now that a return to unsettled westerlies is still favoured after the day 6-9 ridge (uncharacteristic good work from the gfs there). BUT, there is a small but real chance of a scandi or more likely sceuro ridge holding the Atlantic back in the extended.

Zonal Oblivion will have to wait another day.

Even the mean out to 360 is decent and there is quite a few EC ens going for a Scandi high and some to our N/NW.

Edited January 28, 2023 by Allseasons-si
Wrong timeframe

[Allseasons-Si]

20 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

I just find any weather where something is moving thrilling. I can't be looking at a blue sky and seeing nothing there just my personal opinion though. Anyway, sorry to derail the thread.

MJO moving in the right direction for late February to early March with lag correlation potentially offering something and this seems like what will end up being the last ditch attempt - if we can't get a fully fledged Scandi high soon - for Winter hopes. 

And here is the ext'd,...l like where that is heading 

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

And here is the ext'd,...l like where that is heading 

Eric Webb seems to agree with the movement towards Phase 6 though I imagine beyond that is quite blurred it does look like a Phase 6/7 setup eventually.

 

[Mark wheeler]

5 hours ago, Cuban Zebra said:

Just staggering that we have an entire run with pretty much no weather, just benign crud,with the exception of Northern Scotland!! 

384 hours of nothing!!

Bank . Our football season here has been ruined by postponed matches due to either Frost or waterlogged pitches . I will take a Mehh period . Of course I prefer 6 inches and snow with a freeze but hey , have to keep realistic.  
 

ps , Enjoyed the Frosts too

Edited January 28, 2023 by Mark wheeler

[feb1991blizzard]

[feb1991blizzard]

0z GEFS following 12z eps but with some members with fully fledged sustainable scandi high and Easterly by D10 - come on, turnout, turnout, where are people.

[northwestsnow]

Classic + NAO garbage.

[northwestsnow]

At least EC looks dry but that's about as good as it gets .

Also the sun growing in strength so its not all bad unless you want cold and snow because to be Frank the charts look as pretty much as bad as it gets if you wish for snow..

Edited January 29, 2023 by northwestsnow

[KTtom]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Classic + NAO garbage.

Yea, if someone asked me to draw a winter chart which had the worst potential for cold and snow, that would be close, it even moves a segment of PV east to quash any hopes of a Scandinavia high. The plus side, the high to our south does look like its going to save us from a battering from the Atlantic. Might be able to get some value out of my golf membership for the first time this year!

[Nick2373]

 

Current offering from the 00z shows a steady dry pattern up to the 05th 06th, I wouldn't even bother trying to forecast after the 06th. There's to much scatter to even try to guess,

The output by then could change three times by then enjoy the dry for now and if the sun comes out could be pleasant      

Edited January 29, 2023 by Nick2373

[daz_4]

As expected, ECM already downgrading the amount of cold over Europe in short term.

Two days ago

Today 

[sunnijim]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

0z GEFS following 12z eps but with some members with fully fledged sustainable scandi high and Easterly by D10 - come on, turnout, turnout, where are people.

To try and lift the mood from more recent posts, perhaps we can try to digest this.

We are just moving out of a two week cold spell with hard frosts and snow for some.

It is inevitable that we will have to live through a week or more of synoptical 'crud' now.

Similar happened after the two week freeze in December.Three weeks before we turned cold again quite unexpectedly.

If the pattern is to repeat again before Spring, perhaps we should be looking at the 10th of February onwards for building blocks to allow us a decent hurrah mid February to months end.

[nick sussex]

Another poor start to the day for coldies .

The blob of doom to the nw continues although towards day ten does start to separate with a chunk of the PV moving east in the ECM and GFS. 

The UKMO has a little interest day 7 but too much energy looks to head east and there’s a lack of sharpness to the upstream troughing .

I think it’s pretty clear that any ops showing a dig of colder air south around the UK need to be ignored unless this is shown well within day 5 as the models have constantly corrected the pattern further east and flattened that as you count down.

Overall we’re fast approaching last chance saloon time . Chasing spring cold is always frustrating as you need ever perfect synoptics  to deliver and so realistically we need something happen around mid month .

Whether it does or not is of course another matter! 

 

[Purga]

Ueber Vortex

Looks like there will be no SSW in february tbh. To achieve that you need mean zonal winds at 60N to reverse and no model indicates this despite the warming at 10hPa.

[Gowon]

The JMA just about gets there with a scandi high

And there's still high uncertainty around us at day 9/10, more so over Scandinavia at day 10.

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Purga said:

Ueber Vortex

Looks like there will be no SSW in february tbh. To achieve that you need mean zonal winds at 60N to reverse and no model indicates this despite the warming at 10hPa.

There are indications that we could see another effort approaching mid month. Repeated gfs runs are also showing that the recovery of the spv will not be as strong as looked likely with n scandi displacement (again) as week two progresses. However, the mid to lower strat 55/70N continues to look stronger than average with the weaker upper vortex having forced the westerlies down. 
 

I would bookmark around 14 days if the scandi ridge is to see a meandering cold pool reach us.  The odds as high as  20% imo, 

note that the developing polar high has prevented the behemoth Canadian tpv that looked likely to occur. hence we see a split signature continue as has been the case for most of the winter.  The upstream tpv is still way too strong to allow any HLB to establish west of the meridian for the next ten days at least.  mid lat high seems a safe bet to see out the first week at least of feb.

the extended clusters have inevitably broken down from the 12z binary appearance with more nuances on the Sandi/sceuro ridges 

[LRD]

If only it was July

Dunno if there would be frost under that this time of year but what an awful set of Sunday morning runs for those wanting cold and snow. The GFS is a bit out of kilter with the 850s mean but it essentially gives us no weather for 2 weeks.

If these projections are correct, then February will continue its march (pardon the pun) towards becoming a spring-like month. Good for me this year - lots of football to go to next month and don't really want the weather getting in the way

[bluearmy]

looking at the at zonal flow today through the whole NH atmosphere from top to bottom 

I’ve drawn some stuff on the right image to help people understand what the chart shows. Blue/purple  is neg and green, yellow,red is pos. 

of course this shows the nett flow around the whole NH which means you still need to refer to the output to see where the troughs and ridges are. Whilst we don’t have an east to west flow at 60N 10 hpa, (marked with ssw ring) , we do at a higher latitude (hatched) 

Whilst we don’t have a tech ssw, we will see consequences in the trop from this reversal of flow over the next month -  even if it’s the perpetuation of stronger flow at our latitude. I would be looking at the polar high currently establishing from the big ridge n of Alaska as being the most obvious consequence for the time being 

     

[ANYWEATHER]

Just would like anybodies thoughts on the projected stormy period,  which really does look like not happening? 

[KTtom]

5 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Just would like anybodies thoughts on the projected stormy period,  which really does look like not happening? 

Its not happening

[Gowon]

9 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

Bank . Our football season here has been ruined by postponed matches due to either Frost or waterlogged pitches . I will take a Mehh period . Of course I prefer 6 inches and snow with a freeze but hey , have to keep realistic.  
 

ps , Enjoyed the Frosts too

 

6 minutes ago, LRD said:

If only it was July

Dunno if there would be frost under that this time of year but what an awful set of Sunday morning runs for those wanting cold and snow. The GFS is a bit out of kilter with the 850s mean but it essentially gives us no weather for 2 weeks.

If these projections are correct, then February will continue its march (pardon the pun) towards becoming a spring-like month. Good for me this year - lots of football to go to next month and don't really want the weather getting in the way

I don't play anymore due to injury to my left knee, but I certainly agree - this is really good weather for football. 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Its not happening

According to this morning's suite, absolutely NOTHING is happening

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

 

I don't play anymore due to injury to my left knee, but I certainly agree - this is really good weather for football. 

Spectating rather than playing (my playing days are long gone!) but, yep. I normally want cold and snow up to about mid-March and if it happens I will enjoy it but I'd prefer it not to. And looking at the ECM ensembles the first 3rd of Feb looks 'safe' from cold and snow

[jamesthemonkeh]

Appreciate that it doesn't fit the desires of many in here (my desire is just anything other that boring cloudy days) - but if the sun comes out it could be quite pleasant next weekend, relative for mid-winter anyway.

        

Longer range anomalies say mild to my eyes, but this could easily be hiding another cold spell within the average:

Edited January 29, 2023 by jamesthemonkeh