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Model Output Discussion - Into February


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
8 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Yeah, it keeps getting put back... IMHO the anomalies had suggested it turn stormy and i posted charts (EPS) to support that. But high pressure to our near South is now looking more dominant, and despite some EPS charts suggesting low pressure and very mobile conditions nearer to mid month, these havnt gained support and the high looks like hanging on.

The more reliable NOAA do suggest a mobile pattern, but with a positive height anomaly over the Country doesnt suggest to me stormy. This chart suggests mainly dry and on the milder side of average, with the Atlantic systems tracking North of the UK.

814day.03.gif

It looks chilly on the current ops - what is the milder side of average for this time of the year?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS 06 hrs run looks similar to the earlier UKMO output at day 7.

Frustratingly those shortwaves to the se of the upstream trough base stop the high pulling west and north .

Without those shortwaves it could have looked a little bit interesting!

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5 minutes ago, Gowon said:

It looks chilly on the current ops - what is the milder side of average for this time of the year?

7deg+ I’d say where you are based, all location dependent. I think people need to remember our average winter temperatures sometimes when getting too emotionally caught up with these models. 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS 06 hrs run looks similar to the earlier UKMO output at day 7.

Frustratingly those shortwaves to the se of the upstream trough base stop the high pulling west and north .

Without those shortwaves it could have looked a little bit interesting!

Looking good at day nine

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Accessories, Art

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, Gowon said:

Looking good at day nine

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Accessories, Art

I don’t think it will make it this time . But the day 6 into 7 is a timeframe where if there’s going to be some drama it will be then .

The UKMO tries to cut shortwave energy se and the GFS also does .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

Scandi high?

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

...almost... however not in a position to be helpful to us for cold purposes...

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, heat, sunshine, hail. Basically Seasonal.
  • Location: Coventry, West Mids

Plausible 🙂

 

Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Plot, Chart

Could contain: Nature, Outdoors

I was thinking are the OPs under-estimating the extent of blocking over Scandi? Remember the other week in the 3-4 timeframe, they were strengthening the Scandi high on every run - could this be the same this time? 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Nothing too untoward in the immediate timeframe - indeed you could say fairly benign for mid winter. Gone are the synoptics showing very unsettled / windy / stormy weather and instead we are largely to continue to be influenced by the azores ridge rather than atlantic low pressure. Bit of a tussle between the two as we close January and enter February. The former largely gaining the upper hand, away from more northern parts where stronger winds and belts of rain will be introduced off the atlantic - but nothing especially windy or wet here.

Interesting to note UKMO, ECM, GFS at the outer edge of the reliable i.e. this time next week, all going for a more amplified pattern, with the ridge building through the UK and attempting to exert itself further north, but most likely coming unstuck against the strong PV, mid lattitude heights rather than high lattitude block - but its evidence as we have seen through the winter, the atlantic is struggling to gain a power foothold - and we are probably not about to see a Feb 2022 repeat thank goodness.. 

 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 hours ago, jamesthemonkeh said:

Longer range anomalies say mild to my eyes, but this could easily be hiding another cold spell within the average:

glbz700MonInd1.thumb.gif.d773f121e77b2e2c55af9799950cc886.gifeuT2mMonInd1.thumb.gif.2657791143d568e092470bb7d172df6a.gif

Looks like potentially the warmest February on record looking at those charts and at least a 7C+ CET!!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Scone, Perthshire
  • Location: Scone, Perthshire

We’ve really got to hope this pattern doesn’t become entrenched. That said, this winter has in many ways been classic La Niña, with the coldest weather in early winter and now tending milder than average. Albeit, we’ve got the influence of climate change interacting with this, likely further increasing geopotential height anomalies around NW Europe.

I’m not holding out much hope of a Scandi high in the near future. The PV looks to be too strong and is generally displaced into the wrong parts of the NH by the Arctic high.

I suspect we’ll have to ride this mild spell out (terrible for snow in the Scottish Highlands after the next few days) and hope that La Niña declines as forecast into the spring allowing some cold and stormy weather to penetrate further south into the UK and Europe as we head into March.

 

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
5 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Another poor start to the day for coldies .

The blob of doom to the nw continues although towards day ten does start to separate with a chunk of the PV moving east in the ECM and GFS

The UKMO has a little interest day 7 but too much energy looks to head east and there’s a lack of sharpness to the upstream troughing .

I think it’s pretty clear that any ops showing a dig of colder air south around the UK need to be ignored unless this is shown well within day 5 as the models have constantly corrected the pattern further east and flattened that as you count down.

Overall we’re fast approaching last chance saloon time . Chasing spring cold is always frustrating as you need ever perfect synoptics  to deliver and so realistically we need something happen around mid month .

Whether it does or not is of course another matter! 

 

I still think the next shot will come from the north again unfortunately. But probably more true north than the last two. With the high closer to our west, as it moves northwest, once the PV's journey east has finished.

Edited by alexisj9
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
5 hours ago, Gowon said:

The JMA just about gets there with a scandi high

animcat2.gif

And there's still high uncertainty around us at day 9/10, more so over Scandinavia at day 10.

animowx3.gif

Thing to take note of, it still at day ten and hasn't moved closer, in most runs. A few ensembles have moved something a bit closer at times, but that not a very big signal yet, just one or two runs.

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
5 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Just would like anybodies thoughts on the projected stormy period,  which really does look like not happening?  😐

Yep like you said, it's moved north, Scotland might get so ething, if the high allows, don't expect anything further south. For at least the next five days anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

Not a positive start - ICON starts us off with a flatter pattern.

Let's see what the others produce.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Sad to see the thread so quiet in the heart of Winter.

Exeter update screams Euro High for the first half of Feb .

After EC briefly flirted with heights building North any optimism has subsequently subsided and we are back to scratching around in FI for crumbs off the table.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Sad to see the thread so quiet in the heart of Winter.

Exeter update screams Euro High for the first half of Feb .

After EC briefly flirted with heights building North any optimism has subsequently subsided and we are back to scratching around in FI for crumbs off the table.

 

Looking like a very useable period of weather with high pressure to the south bringing mild and bright weather!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
32 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Looking like a very useable period of weather with high pressure to the south bringing mild and bright weather!

True ..

Drizzle and slate grey skies here though so defo depends on location.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The day 6 into 7 tease continues .

The GEM and GFS trying their best . The UKMO not as good as this morning as it’s found another shortwave ! 

It’s  this timeframe as mentioned earlier that might have some drama as this looks to be the only realistic chance of a mini miracle ! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The day 6 into 7 tease continues .

The GEM and GFS trying their best . The UKMO not as good as this morning as it’s found another shortwave ! 

It’s  this timeframe as mentioned earlier that might have some drama as this looks to be the only realistic chance of a mini miracle ! 

It'd be interesting to see how the GEM plays out,...it's quite amplified at 180.

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl

I've always loved GEM🥰

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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The day 6 into 7 tease continues .

The GEM and GFS trying their best . The UKMO not as good as this morning as it’s found another shortwave ! 

It’s  this timeframe as mentioned earlier that might have some drama as this looks to be the only realistic chance of a mini miracle ! 

That is where some ensembles went colder yesterday, but you are literally talking one or two, not a big signal, and I haven't looked to see if it's continued today. Will check these twelve z ones later.

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