Model Output Discussion - Into February

[feb1991blizzard]

wonder if this is the first qtr - East coast reasonable snow totals.

[feb1991blizzard]

MASSIVE REVERSAL ALERT!

you know its a good SSW when the warm polar ridge is being squeezed by the cold from the British & siberian sectors.

Edited February 5, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Guest]

Another day on and even the continental influence this week has reduced and the Euro Hugh dominates with milder southwesterlies returning to our part of the world, alas probably accompanied by a lot of cloud.

Edited February 5, 2023 by Guest

[Ali1977]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

MASSIVE REVERSAL ALERT!

you know its a good SSW when the warm polar ridge is being squeezed by the cold from the British & siberian sectors.

It looks like more GEFS ENS go for a reversal this morning, it’s gathering momentum now - still another few days before hitting medium term confidence though - and will the METO long range start mentioning “possible” cold in its long range - or keep away from any hype. 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

MASSIVE REVERSAL ALERT!

you know its a good SSW when the warm polar ridge is being squeezed by the cold from the British & siberian sectors.

Yes, think that is a trend observable on the last 3 runs at least, but the 0z is a big reversal!  Reverse at 1hPa at T216, 10hPa at T252, and peaks, if that is the word, T324:

I think there is more consistency in the way GFS and GEFS are modelling this than the one suggested in Jan, which rather petered out from the modelling as we know.

[Penrith Snow]

GFS drops the cool zonality signal at day 10 only for ECM to pick it up.

The whole GFS run is awful with a limp euro high and mild southwesterlies throughout, at least ECM offers PM shots later which in my opinion is the only way out of the euro High elephant trap.

Who ever has the solution right we are rapidly running out of time and please don't mention 2013 or 2018, those winters were already fairly cold and completely different.

Andy

[bluearmy]

no help from the extended eps this morning with one cluster 

the 10hpa reversal on gfs 00z op is indeed large but it doesn’t head down during the run - signs that the flushed westerlies ease off markedly by day 15/16 

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

 

Who ever has the solution right we are rapidly running out of time and please don't mention 2013 or 2018, those winters were already fairly cold and completely different.

Andy

Actually December 2022-January 2023 ( 4.3C) is colder for the CET than December 2017 -January 2018 (5.0C)

 

 

 

[Nick F]

Let's hope GFS/GEFS is more reliable up in the stratosphere than the troposphere, it should be, as you'd expect longer predictability from models for the stratosphere compared to the troposphere. Quite a robust reversal downwelling on the 00z GFS, though we still aren't seeing a split.

 

GFS has been very poor with handling the trop recently. Following it's phantom deep cold easterly it was hanging on to for a few days when the other models weren't interested, after it eventually backed away from a Scandi high it was still modelling the high too far north next week and trying to bring colder uppers towards southern UK from central Europe, again EC and UKMO weren't interested. Anticyclonic with average day time temps and frosty nights.

Fairly reasonable continuity for an Atlantic trough close to the UK with a cyclonic flow by day 10 in the EPS and GEFS means:

[northwestsnow]

36 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Let's hope GFS/GEFS is more reliable up in the stratosphere than the troposphere, it should be, as you'd expect longer predictability from models for the stratosphere compared to the troposphere. Quite a robust reversal downwelling on the 00z GFS, though we still aren't seeing a split.

 

GFS has been very poor with handling the trop recently. Following it's phantom deep cold easterly it was hanging on to for a few days when the other models weren't interested, after it eventually backed away from a Scandi high it was still modelling the high too far north next week and trying to bring colder uppers towards southern UK from central Europe, again EC and UKMO weren't interested. Anticyclonic with average day time temps and frosty nights.

Fairly reasonable continuity for an Atlantic trough close to the UK with a cyclonic flow by day 10 in the EPS and GEFS means:

Those charts are horrible.

Euro heights and more +NAO trash.

The brutal truth is Feb, or certainly a large chunk of it looks a write off for snow.

I'm old enough to  remember Feb being a winter month..

Edited February 5, 2023 by northwestsnow

[Cuban Zebra]

GFS had us going for a while but it dumps us well and truly back in benign muck territory! You couldn’t wish to creat a worse run for February if cold is your flavour!
I’m done now, bring on spring!!

[Purga]

Sh*tesville beckons..

[TSNWK]

14 minutes ago, Cuban Zebra said:

GFS had us going for a while but it dumps us well and truly back in benign muck territory! You couldn’t wish to creat a worse run for February if cold is your flavour!
I’m done now, bring on spring!!

Indeed. A job lot of  towels in the post to netweather 

[Ali1977]

Lots of negative posts, I will personally hold out to see if the SSW happens. I don’t expect to see good charts till the last week of feb so whatever shows between now and then is fine by me , dry works . Maybe this week we just need to look out for crazy FI charts appearing should the SSW actually begin happening. 

[minus10]

Gfs 0z seemingly continuing with the milder runs...day 10

 

....bit of a crazy mild run when looking at 0z gfes though..

...mean still showing the trough closer from the nw by day 10 ..

...this emphasised by ecm 0z day 10 op and mean..

....and also the signal on the Gem op and mean day 10..

...so is the mild frenzy of gfs op as crazy as the recent cold frenzy ? .....awaiting further changes particularly in the light of the strat developments...

.....nice doable weather in the meantime next week i think...

 

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by minus10
Wrong chart

[Nick F]

Very high atmospheric pressure at the surface this morning, 1048 hPa over Wales, very likely linked to the intense trop PV dropping over the far NW Atlantic that is bringing very cold air to NE USA / eastern Canada atm and causing strong WAA aloft downstream.

Highest pressure for February in the UK, appears to be 1052.9 hPa recorded at Aberdeen on 1st Feb 1902. Probably be some individual weather station records being broken today, particularly Wales and parts of the southwest. 

 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Nick F

[Stuie]

A slight westwards shift of the cold on this 6z run from the GFS.

 

[Notty]

22 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Very high atmospheric pressure at the surface this morning, 1048 hPa over Wales, very likely linked to the intense trop PV dropping over the far NW Atlantic that is bringing very cold air to NE USA / eastern Canada atm and causing strong WAA aloft downstream.

Highest pressure for February in the UK, appears to be 1052.9 hPa recorded at Aberdeen on 1st Feb 1902. Probably be some individual weather station records being broken today, particularly Wales and parts of the southwest. 

 

My barometer scale only goes to 1050 and is on 1047 now !

[Ali1977]

Let’s get those Iberian heights to push NW

[Gowon]

 

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Let’s get those Iberian heights to push NW

Liking the look of this one so far, Ali

[Gowon]

Separation of the blob 

[ANYWEATHER]

Yes not very often you get a 1048 mb high over the UK! Must say even though by cold winter lovers standards this weather set-up seems rather boring, cold frosty nights and sunny days I welcome , rather than the sombre wind and rain ,and relentless cloudy days at this time of year...Moving on forward, looks like pressure will remain high for some time. Hints of a pattern change in the distance with perhaps the Atlantic returning.....Anyway not ready to throw the Towels in yet on this Winter, but I will keep them at hand....!!!

[minus10]

Uk...hp magnate..

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Uk...hp magnate..

It looks like it's gonna end up to our East/NE?

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Gowon said:

It looks like it's gonna end up to our East/NE?

It’s FI , and will change next run. It’s Just time to look for hints of a change rather than definite direction