Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Johnp]

All eyes on the ens for a bit of hope.

This member is drastically different as early as day 7

[bluearmy]

How many eps members look like the gfs 06z at day 15  (NH profile)  with a huge fairly compact tpv ?

answer is not that many 

 

[Eagle Eye]

The meridional circulation tropopause leans towards a very strong Baroclinic instable pattern in the UK-Scandi region. That's good for the formation of horizontal and vertical Eddy's and heat flux perturbation . A very good Strat warmth driver is the Scandi high and though it's not perfect it looks decent here.

Also note that it appears to end up as an Arctic -Scandi/Ural dipole and you can see the smaller trapped Eddy in the charts above that appears to have possibly ended up as that small Wave-2 driver here. If so it's a good sign of potentially more background signals for a split. This is looking like a very good fluidity of a sign in my opinion. 

 

Though for a SSW to reach the Trop quickly there needs to be a decent amount of upwards wave flux at that time and according to the GFS that just doesn't seem to be the case but I wouldn't worry over it too much yet.

Perhaps I'll go more in-depth about tropopause-Strat fluid circulation another time but I'm too tired right now.

[RhHh]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

If the GFS somehow manages to get this right it'll be a wonderful redemption arc for it's awful performance over the last week or so. 

Er, no it won't!

[Ali1977]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

If the GFS somehow manages to get this right it'll be a wonderful redemption arc for it's awful performance over the last week or so. 

It’s starting to look like the GFS has had the best handle on this week, ECM was showing the high breaking down for the last few days for around next weekend ,  which now looks unlikely !! The GFS may have had the initial high positioned too far north which gave us coldies some hope of cold - but apart from that it looks like it’s doing ok as a model.

It’s a little boring viewing for now of course, hoping for some twists and turns in the coming days now the SSW is pretty much nailed on. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

This is turning into a Feb 1998 / Feb 2019 type month. If we can't get a beast from the east then bring it on I say! Reduced heating bills and some nice weather for the outdoors.

No thanks, 20C in February is wrong under all circumstances in my opinion.  However, sadly it’s going to become more of a regular occurrence  moving forward!  Temps to breach a 100f yet again this summer?

Edited February 6, 2023 by Don

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, johncam said:

No frosty night here I am afraid 

Not here when I woke it was cloudy, sun's out now though 

[alexisj9]

20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s starting to look like the GFS has had the best handle on this week, ECM was showing the high breaking down for the last few days for around next weekend ,  which now looks unlikely !! The GFS may have had the initial high positioned too far north which gave us coldies some hope of cold - but apart from that it looks like it’s doing ok as a model.

It’s a little boring viewing for now of course, hoping for some twists and turns in the coming days now the SSW is pretty much nailed on. 

Simple really it was overdoing the low that held the high up, once that got down to more reliable timeframe for GFS at the moment re lows, around day 3/4 it lost the high amplification, as the low was weaker, so didn't get under the high.

[Mandy Orme]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

No thanks, 20C in February is wrong under all circumstances in my opinion.  However, sadly it’s going to become more of a regular occurrence  moving forward!  Temps to breach a 100f yet again this summer?

Hi , are the charts showing it could be 20°?

( Very inexperienced chart reader here lol)

Also are the charts showing march could be snow and cold as some have said here that it could be ??

Thanks in advance 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

13 minutes ago, Mandy Orme said:

Hi , are the charts showing it could be 20°?

( Very inexperienced chart reader here lol)

Also are the charts showing march could be snow and cold as some have said here that it could be ??

Thanks in advance 

I hope not!!!

[mushymanrob]

36 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s starting to look like the GFS has had the best handle on this week, ECM was showing the high breaking down for the last few days for around next weekend ,  which now looks unlikely !!

 

Not according to these charts... i hope they are wrong and the ECM/GFS retention of the high and mild is right after next weekend. But when theres an OP/Anomaly stand off its the Anomaly that usually "wins" out (nearer to the solution).
 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Let’s hope the GFS 6z op is completely wrong after the 12th!

[mushymanrob]

15 minutes ago, Mandy Orme said:

Hi , are the charts showing it could be 20°?

( Very inexperienced chart reader here lol)

Also are the charts showing march could be snow and cold as some have said here that it could be ??

Thanks in advance 

The current charts are suggesting it might be mild next week, but not 20c.. thats unrealistic at this range imho

No charts are going out to March just yet, only some extended Anomaly charts and at this range are highly uncertain.

There MIGHT be a cold spell, IF, we geta SSW that delivers... many dont, like in 2019, instead we had record breaking warmth in February.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Any SSW probably won’t affect the weather before March anyway by the time it downwells!

[winterof79]

3 hours ago, Met4Cast said:

Pretty conclusive from the 00z ECM. 

A brief dip in temperatures later this week and then considerably above average air moves in across the UK. Temperatures probably into double digits across the south, a lovely early taste of spring! High pressure could be stuck to our south a fair while.

And further North Spring on hold.

Edited February 6, 2023 by winterof79

[Derecho]

43 minutes ago, Don said:

No thanks, 20C in February is wrong under all circumstances in my opinion.  However, sadly it’s going to become more of a regular occurrence  moving forward!  Temps to breach a 100f yet again this summer?

Not sure I really get that logic. If we can't get cold and snowy weather, might as well be nice enough for the outdoors.

6C and rain or 20C and sunny weather?... I know which one I'd pick at this time of year, especially in the strengthening solar input.

Might not be as mild as what the GFS 06z OP is going for but the EC OP ain't too bad either.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

8 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not sure I really get that logic. If we can't get cold and snowy weather, might as well be nice enough for the outdoors.

6C and rain or 20C and sunny weather?... I know which one I'd pick at this time of year, especially in the strengthening solar input.

Might not be as mild as what the GFS 06z OP is going for but the EC OP ain't too bad either.

I’d rather have 20c in July instead of 32c+!

[Methuselah]

I know that 20C in February is unlikely, but it was also unlikely in 2019. But it happened nonetheless. And, given the way things have been going these past few years, I wouldn't entirely rule it out... Though I'd certainly enjoy it if it did! 

[Derecho]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

I’d rather have 20c in July instead of 32c+!

If it's sunny then I'd agree! Though if a hot day means we can get an epic thunderstorm as a result then I'd take the latter... which rarely seems to happen these days.

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not sure I really get that logic. 

February is a winter month and not one that should experience temps in the upper teens to 20C IMO!  Those temps are fine in late March, April and May, but not Feb.  That said, at the end of the day, each to their own!

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I know that 20C in February is unlikely, but it was also unlikely in 2019. But it happened nonetheless. And, given the way things have been going these past few years, I wouldn't entirely rule it out...  

Exactly, and if it doesn’t happen this month, it will again sooner or later!

[bluearmy]

day 15 gefs stamps show few members to be as strong as the op was with the tpv. Given the 00z eps stamps, we can probably dismiss the 06z op trop output post day 12 in the sense that it looks to strong zonal on a NH level 
 

[Stravaiger]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Not according to these charts... i hope they are wrong and the ECM/GFS retention of the high and mild is right after next weekend. But when theres an OP/Anomaly stand off its the Anomaly that usually "wins" out (nearer to the solution).
 

Cheers Mushy...who creates these anomaly charts? Are they not a composite of model output?

2 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Not sure I really get that logic. If we can't get cold and snowy weather, might as well be nice enough for the outdoors.

6C and rain or 20C and sunny weather?... I know which one I'd pick at this time of year, especially in the strengthening solar input.

Might not be as mild as what the GFS 06z OP is going for but the EC OP ain't too bad either.

Really mild weather at this time of year is terrible news for wildlife. It messes with the timings of plants, insects, amphibians and birds, often leading to mismatches in when species and their prey breed. We always want closer to average weather, because that's what our ecosystems evolved to cope with.

[Ali1977]

Well, we have an upgrade of sorts  on the METO long range , with a small but increasing chance of some colder conditions Sounds like the reversal is on, obviously this is just highlighting the chance of it effecting us of course. 

 

Best news all day , hoping something kicks in earlier than expected though as beyond the second week of March becomes harder for “big freeze” type set ups,  and even I’ll be ready for some warmth by mid March!! 
 

What’s the quickest we could hope for some implications if the reversal happens 14-17 Feb? In February still? If things fall right? Will the MJO heading through 4/5/6 help, even an a pretty low amplitude? 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Ali1977

[minus10]

20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well, we have an upgrade of sorts  on the METO long range , with a small but increasing chance of some colder conditions Sounds like the reversal is on, obviously this is just highlighting the chance of it effecting us of course. 

 

Best news all day , hoping something kicks in earlier than expected though as beyond the second week of March becomes harder for “big freeze” type set ups,  and even I’ll be ready for some warmth by mid March!! 
 

What’s the quickest we could hope for some implications if the reversal happens 14-17 Feb? In February still? If things fall right? Will the MJO heading through 4/5/6 help, even an a pretty low amplitude? 

"Cautionary note...that the gfs seems to be on the extreme end of ensemble solutions however"..

......doesnt it always..

....the Icon still holding the flag for day 8 nw trough incursion...