Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Gowon]

Loving the charts.

Check out the cold air being drawn in by the GEM 240

 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

Looking like a very useable period of weather with high pressure to the south bringing mild and bright weather!

You might end up disappointed ECM for example turned it cool and frosty with high pressure based to south through much of coming week it is based to southwest with a milder Atlantic flow. Remember it is only early February don’t be fooled by orange colours. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GEM 12z makes complete sense, ties in with the phase 2 MJO setup and similar to Ninà Febs

 

 

 

[Earthshine]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You might end up disappointed ECM for example turned it cool and frosty with high pressure based to south through much of coming week it is based to southwest with a milder Atlantic flow. Remember it is only early February don’t be fooled by orange colours. 

Well I'd still say 12°C is mild for February.  Also the mean is still around average even after the milder weather next week.

[Frosty.]

Wow, I wasn’t going to post again this so called winter.. pfffffft, I had seriously given up …BUT you never know according too the GEFS 6z!!!.. maybe Feb will have a sting in its tail..?.. roger, over and out! … if not..roll on spring, the sun is getting higher every passing day.. you don’t say! ..  

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Sad to see the thread so quiet in the heart of Winter.

Exeter update screams Euro High for the first half of Feb .

After EC briefly flirted with heights building North any optimism has subsequently subsided and we are back to scratching around in FI for crumbs off the table.

 

Screams Euro High as far as it goes which is most of February!

Towel is at the ready but not quite thrown in!

[Stuie]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow, I wasn’t going to post again this so called winter.. pfffffft, I had seriously given up …BUT you never know according too the GEFS 6z!!!.. maybe Feb will have a sting in its tail..?.. roger, over and out! … if not..roll on spring, the sun is getting higher every passing day.. you don’t say! ..  

 

16 days Frosty, you are smashing the day 10 FI

[alexisj9]

4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

16 days Frosty, you are smashing the day 10 FI

It's nice to look at though, let's hope for more dream charts. 

[Tim Bland]

I think UKMO would get there eventually with a gap opening to our north and the low over scandi headed south East… 

[Allseasons-Si]

I am liking where the 12z are going barring the gfs op that just blows the high away to our SE

UKMO 

GEM 

and the 12z gefs mean is an improvement with the heights

12z 192 vs 06z 204.

over to the ECM.

Edited January 29, 2023 by Allseasons-si
Added text

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS less flat than 6z.

Should be some screamers in there in FI

some scandi highs in there already, even by just over 200

Edited January 29, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

If ec follows gem and ukmo later …..

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I am liking where the 12z are going barring the gfs that just blows the high away to our SE

UKMO 

GEM 

and the 12z gefs mean is an improvement with the heights

12z 192 vs 06z 204.

over to the ECM.

It has me interested again, let’s hope ECM follows either of those!  

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS less flat than 6z.

A surprising number of gefs members are amplified like ukmo and gem day 7

[Daniel*]

32 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Well I'd still say 12°C is mild for February.  Also the mean is still around average even after the milder weather next week.

Mild but far from exceptional the average February high in London is now 9C… so 7C is below average nowadays that’s the reality. I just think some are getting impression there is a 2019 redux I fear some might end up very disappointed. 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Daniel*

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

A surprising number of gefs members are amplified like ukmo and gem day 7

yes - was inquisitive after seeing mean so started to go through them, seen a few good runs and i by no means exhausted the pack, viewed about a third, if that, so added to my post above.

Edited January 29, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[CoventryWeather]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

A surprising number of gefs members are amplified like ukmo and gem day 7

P11 and P28 (I think) are the main two with a strong high over Scandi at day 10. Could be interesting to see if a trend has been started. 

Edited January 29, 2023 by CoventryWeather
Added some charts

[Allseasons-Si]

Here is a few day ten gefs ens,...more like this please

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[snowray]

Interesting control run too.

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Interesting control run too.

Bit like the walls closing in.

[nick sussex]

The UKMO could do with a correction west and also a bit more elongation to the upstream troughing.

We should also bear in mind the models haven’t been able to maintain the amplitude at medium range and have flatttened as they counted down over the last week or so .

So even if the ECM joins the others just that cautionary note .

[snowray]

Anom much improved, if I remember the late Feb 2018 event came from nowhere, although we had a pretty decent SSW that Winter.

12z compared to 06z.

Edited January 29, 2023 by snowray

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO could do with a correction west and also a bit more elongation to the upstream troughing.

We should also bear in mind the models haven’t been able to maintain the amplitude at medium range and have flatttened as they counted down over the last week or so .

So even if the ECM joins the others just that cautionary note .

Absolutely but if three ops find the same amplification unexpectedly…… ten mins or so 

[Stuie]

Before the next ECM frame, the AO for the states continues to show tons of positive scatter.

[Daniel*]

GEFS caught my eye roughly 1/3 raised my eyebrow many of them cold easterlies, I wasn’t expecting as many. Let’s hope something is brewing.. this winter (so far) what has lacked is a cold/wintry easterly flow. If that transpired after a good cold spell in SE in December I would rate this winter somewhat definitely best since 2012/13, and Heathrow recorded lowest January temp since 1987. Each winter month would have offered something which is not routine nowadays. Nothing is clear yet though but there is potential.