Model Output Discussion - Into February

[feb1991blizzard]

All the people that get excited by NW'lys, can't see the attraction of those -6 or -7c ones, this is a proper one however, i would get excited if this was a D4 op chart.

EDIT : no matter what part of the country i lived in.

Edited February 6, 2023 by feb1991blizzard

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Looks like the heights retrogress westwards in time...great charts them

Ooh!!!,...and i like the look of this, a brief zonal pattern(blue) to blocked(red) for the foreseable.

had to edit: sorry the charts looked s***e then.

 

 

 

 

This is the first time the ECM 46 has really gone for it, both for the SSW itself, with a good number of members going for really quite a big reversal, and  a decent, and pretty quick, trop response.  Bank.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

This is the first time the ECM 46 has really gone for it, both for the SSW itself, with a good number of members going for really quite a big reversal, and  a decent, and pretty quick, trop response.  Bank.

6 March onwards isn’t that quick - reversal around 14 feb - that’s a downwelling wave 3 to 4 weeks 

some clusters look decent post 26th 

[Allseasons-Si]

EC monthly anomaly for March

[Don]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

EC monthly anomaly for March

If only it was ....... 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Seasonals are all pretty unanimous now that we're to see a Greenland/Icelandic HP anomaly predominate somewhere March-April time.

I guess we'll need to see how much cold air drains in towards the UK as we need a much more robust blocking set up to deliver anything of note by that time of year.

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, Don said:

If only it was ....... 

hasn't happaned yet

if only it will end up like that

still i would take anything for a cold March to salvage this crappy winter and March 2013 has proven that if you get the right synoptics then i don't see why not but things have to fall in the right places,...let's see what happens.

this was me stood on a road in March 2013.

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All the people that get excited by NW'lys, can't see the attraction of those -6 or -7c ones, this is a proper one however, i would get excited if this was a D4 op chart.

EDIT : no matter what part of the country i lived in.

P21 isn’t bad too by 20 Feb, it’ll be nice if we can get some cold into late feb that isn’t relying on the SSW!! 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

6 March onwards isn’t that quick - reversal around 14 feb - that’s a downwelling wave 3 to 4 weeks 

some clusters look decent post 26th 

Reversal is about 16th by my eye.  Effects being seen w/b 27th.  Still, depends I guess on the nature of the reversal for each member, and what actually happens is very much still up for grabs there.

2018 reversal on 12th Feb, so about 4 days later, that should be in the noise.  I still think an impact on the scale of 2018 is unlikely, though.

[Gowon]

23 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

Seems to be a growing trend that a SSS will happen but it will probably be later than 2018 so rather late feb/early march it is more likely to be early mid March before the effects(if they do even happen) could occur.From a cold perspective it will certainly favour midlands northwards and elevation will obviously play a factor.For the south I think it would most likely be a wintry mess and most likely cold rain away from areas of 150m asl.In the meantime the models are pretty set in stone for dry weather for next 7 days for most of the U.K. and temperatures above average so everyone get outside and enjoy this beautiful country of ours

Super snowy season?

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Reversal is about 16th by my eye.  Effects being seen w/b 27th.  Still, depends I guess on the nature of the reversal for each member, and what actually happens is very much still up for grabs there.

2018 reversal on 12th Feb, so about 4 days later, that should be in the noise.  I still think an impact on the scale of 2018 is unlikely, though.

Yes, I think it depends what type of reversal verifies - 2018 was a split with a big reverse. This could be a displacement and small reversal 

the bigger the better re consequences in the trop 

Edited February 6, 2023 by bluearmy

[Allseasons-Si]

Check out the latest CFS 12z from the end of Feb through March,....it has been consistant of a colder pattern.

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose le modèle à très long terme CFS (Climate Forecast System) jusqu'à neuf mois de la NOAA/NCEP

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Check out the latest CFS 12z from the end of Feb through March,....it has been consistant of a colder pattern.

 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Meteociel propose le modèle à très long terme CFS (Climate Forecast System) jusqu'à neuf mois de la NOAA/NCEP

 

Yeah was just about to post.

The run I looked at from this morning had N Atlantic blocking episodes right into May...suits me if we can limit the time that we have potential for hot weather. If we can limit it to June/July I'm fairly happy with that. 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yeah was just about to post.

The run I looked at from this morning had N Atlantic blocking episodes right into May...suits me if we can limit the time that we have potential for hot weather. If we can limit it to June/July I'm fairly happy with that. 

A little off topic but if we look at the summers of 2013 and 2018, this perhaps does not bode well for those who have a dislike of hot weather?!

[Uncertainty]

33 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

EC monthly anomaly for March

That’s last months Si. 
 

wait till you see the updated version!

[January Snowstorm]

Of course if we do get the cold almost every day sooner is vital. For example last days of Feb would be so much better than mid March. Lying snow is more than possible but as March goes on it would be much more a case of falling snow melting quickly!

Still beggars can't be choosers any snow would be great 

Edited February 6, 2023 by January Snowstorm

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Uncertainty said:

That’s last months Si. 
 

wait till you see the updated version!

Well spotted my friend,...oops!!!

updated feb one not out yet!?

[alexisj9]

47 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

All the people that get excited by NW'lys, can't see the attraction of those -6 or -7c ones, this is a proper one however, i would get excited if this was a D4 op chart.

EDIT : no matter what part of the country i lived in.

That's more like it. But will it happen. Nothing sucking me in till day four, wasn't one hundred percent on the easterly thank goodness. If it's GFS the low is probably being modelled to strong at the minute anyway. Just checked it's ECM, so a little more interesting, but still to far out 

Edited February 6, 2023 by alexisj9

[Cloud 10]

If we are going down the CFS route then what the heck,April also looking good.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

If we are going down the CFS route then what the heck,April also looking good.

 

Did you hack the servers and inprint the Dec 2010 chart in there

Edited February 6, 2023 by Allseasons-si
Added text

[bluearmy]

33 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yeah was just about to post.

The run I looked at from this morning had N Atlantic blocking episodes right into May...suits me if we can limit the time that we have potential for hot weather. If we can limit it to June/July I'm fairly happy with that. 

 

25 minutes ago, Don said:

A little off topic but if we look at the summers of 2013 and 2018, this perhaps does not bode well for those who have a dislike of hot weather?!

Ec seasonal update for the summer has above av temps for June through aug and august looks particularly stuffy 

that’s a long way off though …..

[Allseasons-Si]

45 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Super snowy season?

Super silly season is more like it ha ha,...and it certainly has been that.

[Don]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

 

Ec seasonal update for the summer has above av temps for June through aug and august looks particularly stuffy 

that’s a long way off though …..

Oh well, there we are! 

[Rain All Night]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Ec seasonal update for the summer has above av temps for June through aug and august looks particularly stuffy 

that’s a long way off though …..

Do EC seasonal forecasts at that range verify more often than can be attributed to random chance?

[LightningLover]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Oh well, there we are! 

Good thunderstorm potential at least! Silver linings and all that...