Model Output Discussion - Into February

[MP-R]

24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Ec seasonal update for the summer has above av temps for June through aug and august looks particularly stuffy 

that’s a long way off though …..

Would be a fitting reward if spring is ruined… All conjecture for now though, although does look like a cold wet March/April could be in the pipeline.

Herr and now, some decent February weather with temps recovering to above average by day with time. All well and good as long as we can keep as much sunshine as possible.

[Frigid]

5 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Would be a fitting reward if spring is ruined… All conjecture for now though, although does look like a cold wet March/April could be in the pipeline.

Herr and now, some decent February weather with temps recovering to above average by day with time. All well and good as long as we can keep as much sunshine as possible.

If we get another April 2021, I'll be more than happy. Cold, but without the rain. 

Does look like the SSW will affect spring more than winter itself.. will be quite lucky to see something from this in Feb. 

[Catacol]

6 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Well, we have an upgrade of sorts  on the METO long range , with a small but increasing chance of some colder conditions Sounds like the reversal is on, obviously this is just highlighting the chance of it effecting us of course. 

 

Best news all day , hoping something kicks in earlier than expected though as beyond the second week of March becomes harder for “big freeze” type set ups,  and even I’ll be ready for some warmth by mid March!! 
 

What’s the quickest we could hope for some implications if the reversal happens 14-17 Feb? In February still? If things fall right? Will the MJO heading through 4/5/6 help, even an a pretty low amplitude? 

It will be time to reengage with winter forecasting again soon as the current very predictable westerly pattern comes under pressure. We need MJO into 6/7/8 and the CPC today stated this:

"Dynamical models indicate a quick resumption of an eastward propagating MJO into the Western Pacific later this week."

So....MJO heading into 6 by Valentine's Day. Cue forcing for favourable blocking reemerging around 10 days later - so last week of Feb. And meanwhile the vortex is getting hammered far harder than looked likely a fortnight ago. Love this (hopelessly inaccurate because it is GFS extended) vortex 3D. Inaccurate - but kind of shows how a stressed vortex looks as it loses coherence

and this also - happy days.

Now..... let's be clear. This is very much a case of crumbs from the table stuff. Pot of Gold hunters have to accept that cold weather in the back end of Feb into March is not the ideal landing zone and the vortex is not predisposed to a split as it was in 2018. But it does at least add interest to what otherwise was beginning to look like a horribly dull month. Can we have a stab at how this particular displaced event might impact? Well - let's have a go. 10hpa extended here:

All data is leaning towards a substantial displacement event pushing the vortex over towards Russia. Layers beneath then follow as the impact downwells, with the time series average anomalies showing the beginning of what might occur as we move towards the end of the month

Given the parallel impacts of the MJO and a vortex being shunted to Russia I am going to punt for a cold block due north of the UK to form in that last week, with the possibility as we move into March of a cold NE feed. Last hurrah for winter....and a chance that it might be a good end. Note again that we are not looking at a 2018 split where we had a vortex shard back east to west, pulling in that amazing feed and climaxing with Storm Emma. Not this time. No split. But some snow in this final winter phase quite possible. March to me looks like a below average month.

 

 

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, Frigid said:

If we get another April 2021, I'll be more than happy. Cold, but without the rain. 

Does look like the SSW will affect spring more than winter itself.. will be quite lucky to see something from this in Feb. 

Yes indeed. April 2021 is probably the best possible outcome from a cold spring month, just without the May that followed please…

One would think that such a late SSW would be the final warming would it not…

[Don]

9 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Yes indeed. April 2021 is probably the best possible outcome from a cold spring month, just without the May that followed please…

One would think that such a late SSW would be the final warming would it not…

Perhaps an early final warming?

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Perhaps an early final warming?

per definition the fw is this:

*‘…the winds must return to westerly for 20 consecutive days between events, and for at least 10 days prior to April 30.’*

 source https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

[bluearmy]

45 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Do EC seasonal forecasts at that range verify more often than can be attributed to random chance?

I’m sure it’s better than random chance but doubt it’s particularly accurate 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Folks I was hoping for a low key end to winter..Family problems are now taking a big toll on me mentally and its a struggle.

But I just want you all to have fun and be assured we are potentially staring down the barrel of a major split pv..Even the met are now hinting at this.

I said a sting in the tail to this Winter last week! And I'm starting to feel increasingly confident of a late Winter suprise! This could get very interesting!

Much love to ya all.

Keep up the chase..your what makes this place special..

I will leave ya with this...and don't forget Marco is a mild lover....try and sleep tight...dont have nightmares....the PV is coming to get ya  

@minus10 stay strong mate...we get knocked down but we get up again! 

Edited February 6, 2023 by MATT TATTOO

[Stravaiger]

Delighted to see the 18Z brings the tPV down to our neck of the woods from Day 8 onwards.

I’d give my right arm for that run to verify and winter to resume in our snowless hills.

[bluearmy]

Back end of gfs op notable for a sizeable polar ridge developing ne Siberia from n pacific ridging 

that looks like a response but I won’t be awake when the cross sectional updates …..

that ridge is imprinted higher up at 30 and 50 hpa so it is notable 

Edited February 6, 2023 by bluearmy

[minus10]

31 minutes ago, MATT TATTOO said:

Folks I was hoping for a low key end to winter..Family problems are now taking a big toll on me mentally and its a struggle.

But I just want you all to have fun and be assured we are potentially staring down the barrel of a major split pv..Even the met are now hinting at this.

I said a sting in the tail to this Winter last week! And I'm starting to feel increasingly confident of a late Winter suprise! This could get very interesting!

Much love to ya all.

Keep up the chase..your what makes this place special..

So sorry to hear that Matt...i really hope things can get better for you..your optimism and humour on here is what makes this forum great..stay strong mate...i know what it is like as i have had similar issues and are still dealing with some...anyway maybe this is the start of a trend..

[SLEETY]

The 10 day trend met office forecast this week is going to be interesting viewing  regarding the SSW, that's going to happen later this month. 

[Nick2373]

Going off the 18z either its picking up on a possible ssw which lead's to cold, or its picking up indeed the ssw and putting the uk on the warm side with lows being driven off the Atlantic 

way to much scatter for a convincing drop to something colder at the minute  there are signs of the zonal winds splitting around the 17th,18th but the question will it fall in the Uk's favour.  

Are we going to see a rapid ssw or one that's of no use like a ashtray on a motorbike.  

[Nick2373]

Quite in here this morning, 00z still shows scatter from the 15th onwards with the control and gfs op following a similar pattern past the 15th . Looking like currently something more unsettled

on the cards but that's seven days away, if that patron remains  trending over the next few days  looks like SSW SWest set up. 

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Quite in here this morning, 00z still shows scatter from the 15th onwards with the control and gfs op following a similar pattern past the 15th . Looking like currently something more unsettled

on the cards but that's seven days away, if that patron remains  trending over the next few days  looks like SSW SWest set up. 

The surface level charts are certainly a little boring right now, and without cherry picking a few ENS there’s not much showing for coldies just yet. The day 10 ECM chart looks like it’s trying to bring in some PM air, but will no doubt look different later.

Those in Turkey will be hoping to move their cold away to help with rescue efforts , a horrendous situation there!! 
 

PS - Keep your chin up MATT TATTOO, you’re one of the more positive ones on here so hopefully you can harness that

[Nick2373]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The surface level charts are certainly a little boring right now, and without cherry picking a few ENS there’s not much showing for coldies just yet. The day 10 ECM chart looks like it’s trying to bring in some PM air, but will no doubt look different later.

Those in Turkey will be hoping to move their cold away to help with rescue efforts , a horrendous situation there!! 
 

PS - Keep your chin up MATT TATTOO, you’re one of the more positive ones on here so hopefully you can harness that

Correct me if I'm wrong but that chart would just draw in South West winds, the PV Is to strong over Canada and the Atlantic that would push all the crud our way sort of ties in with this mornings 00z 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Correct me if I'm wrong but that chart would just draw in South West winds, the PV Is to strong over Canada and the Atlantic that would push all the crud our way sort of ties in with this mornings 00z 

Depends on the build of high pressure in the Atlantic I guess , but you are probably correct looking at the transition between 216 and 240!! 

[Stuie]

T144.

The UKMO and ICON appear to keep the HP in situ and rounded.

The GEM and ECM appear to show the HP more East and ready to topple.

GEFS looks like a blend of them all.

 

[Vikos]

Let’s wait for the warming to begin. I don’t trust gfs with its keen spring ambitions. May to many influences of statistics going into the midterms? 
 

warming begins in around 5 days…

 

Because extended range skill is higher when there is a SSW in the forecast initial conditions (Tripathi et al. 2015) then SSW events are a potential source of predictability. 

From ec hompepage 

things need to get real, then picked up as a initial condition and then we may see a big flip? Who knows? 

[NewEra21]

Really is just a waiting game currently, just to see if this SSW can bring us into the cold game.

Probably still a good few days/weeks before we see any real hints of anything in the output. But if and when the models do pick up on something, the fireworks could well and truly begin.... or it could just be a damp squib and the fuse never really ignites for us in the UK.

Edited February 7, 2023 by NewEra21

[North-Easterly Blast]

7 hours ago, SLEETY said:

The 10 day trend met office forecast this week is going to be interesting viewing  regarding the SSW, that's going to happen later this month. 

I have said many times before, that a SSW only increases the chance of a significant cold spell in the UK, but it does not guarantee it, everything still has to fall favourably for us in the UK, as the dice of luck still has to land for northern blocking to set up favourably to direct cold airmasses into the UK.

The stratospheric warming is modelled to begin in a week's time, and to be complete by the 18th, so anything can happen beyond that time and it is a situation where it is impossible for the models to give any trends.

[Nick F]

46 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Really is just a waiting game currently, just to see if this SSW can bring us into the cold game.

Probably still a good few days/weeks before we see any real hints of anything in the output. But if and when the models do pick up on something, the fireworks could well and truly begin.... or it could just be a damp squib and the fuse never really ignites for us in the UK.

We do have a weakening La Nina and MJO moving into the western Pacific to add to the emphasis for a pattern change later this month, perhaps before any downwelling effects of the SSW - which could reinforce any amplification / high lat. blocking that develops from these drivers. But we may have to endure a few weeks of +NAO. GEFS seems more bullish than EPS to hang on to Euro high anticyclonic influence at day 10, EPS more cyclonic, looking at H500 means:

Edited February 7, 2023 by Nick F

[mushymanrob]

Not being up on the affects of SSWs , if we get a displacement, where would it need to be in order to give us the best shot of cold?

[Met4Cast]

Confidence over the next 2 weeks is higher than usual with a strong signal for above average temperatures right out to the 21st February at least. 
 

An SSW now looks highly likely with a reversal to easterlies and a displacement event. These can take 2-4 weeks to impact the surface levels putting us towards mid-March. 

The BFTE 2018 was the largest impact from an SSW on record so I think the chances of a repeat are pretty unlikely. Going to need some fairly exceptional synoptics to produce the goods in mid-March so I think the chances of a notable cold/snowy period on the back of this SSW are low. 

Still, a mild outlook is great for not having steep energy bills. 

[sebastiaan1973]

In 2018 the MJO was extreme. This time probably not.