Model Output Discussion - Into February

[mushymanrob]

20 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Not according to these charts... i hope they are wrong and the ECM/GFS retention of the high and mild is right after next weekend. But when theres an OP/Anomaly stand off its the Anomaly that usually "wins" out (nearer to the solution).
 

Well there has been some movement here, and now these charts suggest high pressure will be more influential than the low on the chart i posted yesterday.  I must admit, these favoured charts i use have struggled a bit recently with predicting high pressure near our South. The one we have now is strong, very strong, but only a couple of weeks ago these charts had us down for mobile and "stormy". On the other hand, they refused to support a Scandinavian high/Easterly and were spot on in doing so..

To me, these charts suggest bright, unsettled but not overly wet, mobile, mild conditions from the weekend onwards.
 

[Purga]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well there has been some movement here, and now these charts suggest high pressure will be more influential than the low on the chart i posted yesterday.  I must admit, these favoured charts i use have struggled a bit recently with predicting high pressure near our South. The one we have now is strong, very strong, but only a couple of weeks ago these charts had us down for mobile and "stormy". On the other hand, they refused to support a Scandinavian high/Easterly and were spot on in doing so..

To me, these charts suggest bright, unsettled but not overly wet, mobile, mild conditions from the weekend onwards.
 

And a pretty stronb Bartlett signal for sure.

[nick sussex]

Latest GEFS 0hrs mean doesn’t have a reversal . 

So yet more disappointment to add to the very poor output for coldies .

Edited February 7, 2023 by nick sussex

[ANYWEATHER]

2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well there has been some movement here, and now these charts suggest high pressure will be more influential than the low on the chart i posted yesterday.  I must admit, these favoured charts i use have struggled a bit recently with predicting high pressure near our South. The one we have now is strong, very strong, but only a couple of weeks ago these charts had us down for mobile and "stormy". On the other hand, they refused to support a Scandinavian high/Easterly and were spot on in doing so..

To me, these charts suggest bright, unsettled but not overly wet, mobile, mild conditions from the weekend onwards.
 

What has intrigued me with this spell of weather, is for the general consensus from model output and alike, for stormy conditions to prevail across much of the first half of February, but what we had is totally the opposite with near record strong high pressure recorded the other day. This Winter has for me anyway had a few surprises . Cant complain about this settled spell though, totally opposite to last February.....

[johnholmes]

7 minutes ago, Purga said:

And a pretty stronb Bartlett signal for sure.

a signal based on one chart but not a strong one

Edited February 7, 2023 by johnholmes

[johnholmes]

14 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Well there has been some movement here, and now these charts suggest high pressure will be more influential than the low on the chart i posted yesterday.  I must admit, these favoured charts i use have struggled a bit recently with predicting high pressure near our South. The one we have now is strong, very strong, but only a couple of weeks ago these charts had us down for mobile and "stormy". On the other hand, they refused to support a Scandinavian high/Easterly and were spot on in doing so..

To me, these charts suggest bright, unsettled but not overly wet, mobile, mild conditions from the weekend onwards.
 

Probably a nw-se split, milder in the nw with disturbed weather at times (gales), less mild possibly rather cold at times in the se and generally dry ?

[Cambrian]

Yesterday in Bordeaux…

Jour 0-10 sur la course opérationnelle 12z ECM - mais oui, nous adorons absolument la haute pression…..

  

….l'isobare 1030 hPa ou plus - c'est magnifique! Vive le dôme français et la grande frustration pour les passionnés de météo de Bretagne et d'Irlande….hon hon hon

Meanwhile, here in the Welsh hills, life goes on….(slowly)

(Me happily dreaming those were summer charts)

This morning in Bordeaux….

Oh non, jour 10 sur la 0z ! 

Mais personne ne croit au jour 10 ! Hon hon hon.

[Drifter]

6z. Will be interesting to see where this one goes, starting to look interesting to the north east. 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Drifter

[bluearmy]

29 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Latest GEFS 0hrs mean doesn’t have a reversal . 

So yet more disappointment to add to the very poor output for coldies .

Eps mean still does between T224 and T278 

the current agreed trend is a displacement with a lowish level reversal at 60N.  Still no continuity on gfs op on how that might head down.  Eps at day15 don’t show much appetite for a trop repsonse. The Canadian tpv looks particularly strong out to day 16 on the ens. 

Edited February 7, 2023 by bluearmy

[mushymanrob]

33 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

What has intrigued me with this spell of weather, is for the general consensus from model output and alike, for stormy conditions to prevail across much of the first half of February, but what we had is totally the opposite with near record strong high pressure recorded the other day. This Winter has for me anyway had a few surprises . Cant complain about this settled spell though, totally opposite to last February.....

 Its the modelling of the high to our South thats been the bane this winter imho... in this case its been much stronger than expected and thats shunted to stormy weather just North of the UK. So the stormy weather is there, just not over us.
 

27 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Probably a nw-se split, milder in the nw with disturbed weather at times (gales), less mild possibly rather cold at times in the se and generally dry ?

I guess it depends upon how much of a continental feed is in the mix for the Southeast, at this range the detail cant be determined, and itll only take a slight alteration in the feed to make the difference.
An Iberian feed would be much milder than one from Central/Southern Europe.

[Vikos]

I don’t have a lot of faith in the mean as some strong members/signals can drag it up or down just enough that it either shows a reversal or not. We have to play the waiting game for a few days more…

[Elfyn Jones]

44 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Confidence over the next 2 weeks is higher than usual with a strong signal for above average temperatures right out to the 21st February at least. 
 

An SSW now looks highly likely with a reversal to easterlies and a displacement event. These can take 2-4 weeks to impact the surface levels putting us towards mid-March. 

The BFTE 2018 was the largest impact from an SSW on record so I think the chances of a repeat are pretty unlikely. Going to need some fairly exceptional synoptics to produce the goods in mid-March so I think the chances of a notable cold/snowy period on the back of this SSW are low. 

Still, a mild outlook is great for not having steep energy bills. 

The time scales still allow the possibility for March to come in like a Polar Bear this year. "towards mid March'" could just as probably be " early March". The name of the game must be Hunting for Cold not Wishing for Mild otherwise we might as well pack up and go home.

[Battleground Snow]

It's been a tough couple of weeks for coldies, 

If we can get these sort of charts into the reliable at the end of February, hopefully we can at least see a couple of widespread snow events.

As others have said though the potential reversal is like rolling a dice at this juncture, we won't know how it's going to land for a little while yet.

Edited February 7, 2023 by Battleground Snow

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

It's been a tough couple of weeks for coldies, 

If we can get these sort of charts into the reliable at the end of February, hopefully we can at least see a couple of widespread snow events.

As others have said though the potential reversal is like rolling a dice at this juncture, we won't know how it's going to land for a little while yet.

Looks like fan blades ready to cool us down

Edited February 7, 2023 by Vikos

[Gowon]

Is this what we're looking for? Pacific ridge going up.

Edited February 7, 2023 by Gowon

[Ali1977]

14 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Is this what we're looking for? Pacific ridge going up.

Turning out very interesting in FI, is this related to a QTR , MJO or just a rogue GFS Op run though. Hoping a QTR but everyone seems to be discounting that with it not being a split SSW !! I wonder if we can get a split PV/Cross polar flow on this run

 

The WAA hits the blockers - let’s see if we get any interesting GEFS members though 

Edited February 7, 2023 by Ali1977

[Vikos]

Most amazing chart since ages

[Gowon]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Turning out very interesting in FI, is this related to a QTR , MJO or just a rogue GFS Op run though. Hoping a QTR but everyone seems to be discounting that with it not being a split SSW 

Hopefully it's true reflection  

Gfs having another go at a scandi?

[Ali1977]

Interesting strat at day 12, then it starts heating up again in deep FI. 

[Methuselah]

It's a goat: 

[Vikos]

12z has to get even better and show us a split

[Met4Cast]

25 minutes ago, Elfyn Jones said:

The time scales still allow the possibility for March to come in like a Polar Bear this year. "towards mid March'" could just as probably be " early March". The name of the game must be Hunting for Cold not Wishing for Mild otherwise we might as well pack up and go home.

This is the model output thread, not the “hunt for cold” thread  

[tight isobar]

A split gains momentum into modelling now!!.. something I’ve been waiting to see.   A displacement is starting to look more than ample for something very interesting into late February!!.. definitely structure wobbling now... And likely the beginning of some cracking outs on the raws... has winter saved it’s best until last... possibly

[Ali1977]

A good METO blog on their latest SSW thoughts. I still think the last 3rd of the month could hold surprises but we’ll see!! 

Are we expecting a Sudden Stratospheric Warming? | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Following a minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in January, the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) has now recovered. Our forecasts for the coming week also...

 

[Vikos]

I’d love to have trust in gfs but it fooled me big time not so long ago with some stunning easterly flow… and I said to myself not to be fooled again. So many times. 🥹