Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Into February


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Not being up on the affects of SSWs , if we get a displacement, where would it need to be in order to give us the best shot of cold?

If the trop were to mirror the strat, then you want the displaced PV as far away as possible towards Kamchatka with no remaining vortices energy left around Greenland.

Of course, we know the weather gods will find some way to do just that.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It might come to nothing but look at the difference between last nights UKMO output to next Monday and today’s to the same time .

Could contain: Plot, Chart, OutdoorsIMG_0547.thumb.GIF.491f37d0e49f291ca8f6f6b9b858adc3.GIF

Even though we are seeing an apparent flushing down of westerlies from the strat at the same time we’re seeing a drop in those zonal winds .

 

Can definitely see the trop vortex becoming weaker and less organising, I guess it's just a waiting game to see what transpires further on in the month.

Gfs 192

Could contain: Outdoors, Art, Nature, Graphics

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset
7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It might come to nothing but look at the difference between last nights UKMO output to next Monday and today’s to the same time .

Could contain: Plot, Chart, OutdoorsIMG_0547.thumb.GIF.491f37d0e49f291ca8f6f6b9b858adc3.GIF

Even though we are seeing an apparent flushing down of westerlies from the strat at the same time we’re seeing a drop in those zonal winds .

 

We do seem to be attracting some fat anticyclones at the moment!

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Even though i am a coldie,...i would look forward to this this weekend 😎

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Face, Person, Head, Outdoors, NatureCould contain: Plot, Chart, Map, Atlas, Diagram, Person, Nature, Outdoors, Face, Vegetation

and yes probably frosty by night but through the day looks V pleasant indeed.

further on,...can we get more amplification up to Scandi again towards day ten>

Looks foggy to me, we'll see I guess.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

Apologies if already asked, but are SSW’s getting more frequent (don’t remember hearing about these 10+ years ago)?

If so, has any research been done to see if climate change ironically increases the risk?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
9 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Apologies if already asked, but are SSW’s getting more frequent (don’t remember hearing about these 10+ years ago)?

If so, has any research been done to see if climate change ironically increases the risk?

Not a new thing, just more people taking note of them now. In public forums and those who sensationalise weather. So it will be heard about more and more, now people have connected them with some cold winter periods, like 2018, Feb 2009, etc. I will stress it not always a cold outcome for us.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
9 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Apologies if already asked, but are SSW’s getting more frequent (don’t remember hearing about these 10+ years ago)?

If so, has any research been done to see if climate change ironically increases the risk?

No, they're not.

There are records of SSW's since the late 50s.

SSW's were quite common in the 60s, 70s and 80s and then "disappeared" between 1989 and 1998.
Then they happened regularly again (almost yearly) during the 2000s, but over the last 10 years not as frequent.

They get discussed a lot more, but that has everything to do with forums such as this, social media and increased access to data and model output.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Insightful 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands
  • Location: Netherlands
26 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Apologies if already asked, but are SSW’s getting more frequent (don’t remember hearing about these 10+ years ago)?

If so, has any research been done to see if climate change ironically increases the risk?

https://digital.csic.es/bitstream/10261/185753/1/No robust evidence_Ayarzaguena.pdf

Schermafbeelding 2023-02-07 184426.gif

Edited by sebastiaan1973
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 3
  • Insightful 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Certainly no concerns with regard to stormy weather for some considerable time if UKMO 168 verifies...as Cambrian pointed out above, the block seems to be on an interesting direction of travel..

 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
28 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Apologies if already asked, but are SSW’s getting more frequent (don’t remember hearing about these 10+ years ago)?

 

The mentioning of them has become become frequent because until about winter 2007- 2008,  I don't recall much talk about them if at all. Netweather is 20 years old, did people talk about the stratosphere during the winter of 2003-04?  

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
5 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

Thanks, looks interesting, will have a read.  Just looking at the conclusions, my gut reaction is they look maybe slightly over-confident.  The reason I think that is that in recent years the QBO has been behaving somewhat erratically - which is a new phenomenon.  I’m not sure how this plays with frequency of SSWs (currently about 6 per decade) but the QBO is an important factor, so an impact is, I would have thought, possible.  

  • Like 3
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
20 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Certainly no concerns with regard to stormy weather for some considerable time if UKMO 168 verifies...as Cambrian pointed out above, the block seems to be on an interesting direction of travel..

 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

Somewhat supported by the GFS.

Could contain: Comics, Book, Publication, Page, Text

 

Edit: The AO(US/Canada) is going crazy Could contain: Plot, Chart

Edited by Stuie W
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

More interesting charts appearing by day 12-14, probably nothing to do with any SSW but nice to see something more akin to delivering wintery weather chances!! 

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Art

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

Could contain: Modern Art, Art, Outdoors

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Art

Could contain: Outdoors, Accessories, Nature, Pattern, Art

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Art, Plot, Chart

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Spot the difference!

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Heat MapCould contain: Plot, Chart, Heat Map

6z (left) and 12z (right) zonal winds, just to illustrate the uncertainty, very different towards the end of the run after similar profile of the initial warming, 6z showing a lot of promise with the downwelling, 12z just looks to fizzle out.  More runs needed.

Meanwhile, GFS and GEM at T240, flirting with height rises in scandi once more:

Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Art, AccessoriesCould contain: Outdoors, Nature

Too early to be anything to do with the SSW, but when it’s effects do filter down it would be helpful if we were not starting from scratch to build blocking in a favourable place, so nice to see…

  • Like 7
  • Insightful 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...