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Model Output Discussion - Into February


Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

April-

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It's not April fools yet😛

but i wouldn't be a fool predicting that as it would happen more that month than now.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
28 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's not April fools yet😛

but i wouldn't be a fool predicting that as it would happen more that month than now.

Indeed quite normal synoptics for April and May, our most northerly and easterly months of the year.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Indeed quite normal synoptics for April and May, our most northerly and easterly months of the year.

Indeed. Remember many an Easter back in the 80's as a child looking out at the sunshine and snow showers. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, damianslaw said:

Indeed quite normal synoptics for April and May, our most northerly and easterly months of the year.

I think I'll keep from worrying about April until April... My late Auntie Doris is tied up just now! 😁

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
39 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

12z eps mean pretty much loses ssw on the run - it may just about make it. given that we are ticking down, you’d expect things to be firming up 

Just can't seem to catch a break this winter and like you say, things should be firming up now, so not good news!

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Indeed. Remember many an Easter back in the 80's as a child looking out at the sunshine and snow showers. 

As recently as two years ago!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

12z eps mean pretty much loses ssw on the run - it may just about make it. given that we are ticking down, you’d expect things to be firming up 

it does however just show the very start of the transfer of the vortex from Canada to Greenland in the trop. perhaps a response?

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
6 minutes ago, Don said:

Just can't seem to catch a break this winter and like you say, things should be firming up now, so not good news!

As recently as two years ago!

Spot on Don. I remember Sunday 11th April, week after Easter and seeing the snow falling late afternoon. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

it does however just show the very start of the transfer of the vortex from Canada to Greenland in the trop. perhaps a response?

I can’t see it but it’s not a response you’d expect ??

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

it does however just show the very start of the transfer of the vortex from Canada to Greenland in the trop. perhaps a response?

That doesn't sound great to me. Would prefer it to head in the opposite direction. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That doesn't sound great to me. Would prefer it to head in the opposite direction. 

Yep, needs to move as far away from Greenland as possible!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I can’t see it but it’s not a response you’d expect ??

sorry i meant towards Russia / Siberia from Canada  / Greenland. its very subtle though.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

sorry i meant towards Russia / Siberia from Canada  / Greenland. its very subtle though.

The story of this winter (and most winters for that matter) - the transfer is always way too subtle and very short lived. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

sorry i meant towards Russia / Siberia from Canada  / Greenland. its very subtle though.

Too subtle for me - the Canadian vortex continues to throw daughter vortices out towards svaalbard and beyond - this maintains the strong jet across the Atlantic. 

either we have to wait for a downwelling wave to appear and show some continuity or we wait for the nwp to change when the reversal comes closer and the modelling recognises it’s not got a handle on its affect further down 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Just drains a little, purples go from very dark to just a little lighter canadian sector and vise versa svalbard as you say.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Potentially some hints of -AO developing in final days of February on EPS probably strat related. A rise and then a fall would make sense.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Not quite on this run but you can see the mechanism's at work here re the strat to trop influence,...tpv held further nw and it wouldn't surprise me to see more of the same in future runs.

get the trough disrupting further SE into the med like this run has shown and we may see a backbuild of cold SW into the UK.

a hunch but the tpv was supposed to barrel through by now,...no you don't.

Gnight all

and catch you all tomorrow.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

I think given we’re looking at 2-4 weeks after the SSW has occurred to see impacts (if any), anything showing up on NWP modelling isn’t going to be strat related, it’s far too early for that. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset

The low height anomaly doesn't stick around to our west for too long on the ensemble means this afternoon:

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Posted
  • Location: Port Talbot
  • Location: Port Talbot

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Last nights 18z continues the the trend for something more unsettled with a hint of some PM Shots in there for around the17th,18th but presides that nothing towards colder than average.   

That PV around Canada is to strong the Bain of all our winters.  

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Well it looks like the PV isn’t going to recover after the SSW, day 10 and 16 below. 

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Strat a trop coupling too. 

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Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
9 hours ago, CreweCold said:

April-

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What is the success rate of CFS so far out? Out of  all the posters on netweather, you seem to champion CFS more than anyone. I would have thought out of anyone, you would know just how accurate these charts are?

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

What is the success rate of CFS so far out? Out of  all the posters on netweather, you seem to champion CFS more than anyone. I would have thought out of anyone, you would know just how accurate these charts are?

They can be fairly useful. Essentially you need to treat them with caution when using them. Taking a snapshot of any given run in isolation  is obviously a no no but to keep tabs on the mean pressure anomalies etc and look for trends can be fairly fruitful.

In this instance the EC seasonal and CFS are both showing us the same thing, so we can have a bit more confidence in what the two of them are demonstrating for spring.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Not a lot on offer this morning, well with the exception of the pattern looking more amplified at the end of week 1 with high pressure hanging on.

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Yesterdays 00z

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GEM/UKMO for day 7

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Two thoughts, the first is if the ridge retains its core from the subtropics then obviously there is a chance of some very mild or even warm weather developing. The second and polar opposite thought (pun intended) is that the more sheered solutions are not actually far away from developing something far more interesting into week 2. Even if the effects of the SSW will not be visible for some time, we do have a scenario where the zonal winds will be railing off and with the general long wave pattern, there is still a chance of a block to the north east developing and sustaining itself with a colder continental feed.

The ECM is still the flattest, but is very different to yesterday when the pattern was a flat westerly.

image.thumb.gif.98a507291c9e62aecabe0de217e10761.gif   image.thumb.gif.1c73312e5b1c0d362fa88932dda83104.gif

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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