Model Output Discussion - Into February

[Nick2373]

 

00z Shows a slight change to what the 18z was showing temps remaining above average pretty much same conditions of late, Spikes seem to be dropping each run so dry may carrying on.  

[Stuie]

23 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Not a lot on offer this morning, well with the exception of the pattern looking more amplified at the end of week 1 with high pressure hanging on.

 

Yesterdays 00z

 

GEM/UKMO for day 7

   
 

Two thoughts, the first is if the ridge retains its core from the subtropics then obviously there is a chance of some very mild or even warm weather developing. The second and polar opposite thought (pun intended) is that the more sheered solutions are not actually far away from developing something far more interesting into week 2. Even if the effects of the SSW will not be visible for some time, we do have a scenario where the zonal winds will be railing off and with the general long wave pattern, there is still a chance of a block to the north east developing and sustaining itself with a colder continental feed.

ECM this morning also looks more towards the UKMO / GEM. It was looking to throw the towel in HP wise yesterday at T144 but holding up better.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Absolutely bonkers how mild this month is turning out to be in NW Europe. 
 

No sight of anything more seasonable.

[Roger J Smith]

I think if there's going to be a significant cold spell it might come in March, rather than any time soon. It seems that the tendency at present is for Russian high pressure to feed gradually into European highs that are either neutral or inhibiting for cold in Britain. Atlantic highs are being absorbed into these Euro highs, just reinforcing their neutral to warm tendencies. It's probably obvious but what is needed for one of these Russian highs to work is a higher amplitude flow over the central to western Atlantic allowing that high to build into Scandinavia rather than the Balkans. Even Poland would do. I don't see much chance of this before first half of March. 

 

[mb018538]

Remaining dry as a bone & pretty mild for much of the country out to day 10 on this mornings ECM. The only exception to this is the far NW corner of Scotland, which is unfortunately right on the rainfall boundary and could see repeated heavy rainfall such as the chart below. Flooding risks here.

 

Winter very much on hold. We may only have a week of official winter left for anything cold, and even then it's looking dodgy. If it's cold and snow you are after, then the potential after effects of the SSW into March may be the best bet.

[SLEETY]

43 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Absolutely bonkers how mild this month is turning out to be in NW Europe. 
 

No sight of anything more seasonable.

I would  like to see the average C.E.T for feb the past 10 years it must be way above average,and this month no different.Incredible.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

57 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I think if there's going to be a significant cold spell it might come in March, rather than any time soon. It seems that the tendency at present is for Russian high pressure to feed gradually into European highs that are either neutral or inhibiting for cold in Britain. Atlantic highs are being absorbed into these Euro highs, just reinforcing their neutral to warm tendencies. It's probably obvious but what is needed for one of these Russian highs to work is a higher amplitude flow over the central to western Atlantic allowing that high to build into Scandinavia rather than the Balkans. Even Poland would do. I don't see much chance of this before first half of March. 

 

Agreed, I think the set up we have now is a general holding pattern which could see us through this month.  

 

BFTP

[Met4Cast]

ECM showing a displacement of the SPV to Asia

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Absolutely bonkers how mild this month is turning out to be in NW Europe. 
 

No sight of anything more seasonable.

Scorcher! 

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Scorcher! 

A few cold mornings isn't going to cut it....the days are still around average, CET is 3c above, and once the clear nights disappear tomorrow then it's likely we will reach the last 7-10 days of Feb still 3c above average. 

[Anthony Burden]

Morning all,back from a lovely time in the Caribbean where hot weather is normal.Well I have missed some cold frosty mornings,will it continue well next ten days looking dry according to ECM and fairly mild but the forecast SSW could still hold some chance of a late winter surprise,worth keeping a keen eye on so still not time to close the book on this winter.

[Purga]

Amazing how consistent and steadfast all of the models are across runs when Mild is forecast and most likely to verify! Now if it was cold, it would surely flip .

 

[Daniel*]

Pretty strong displacement on ECM and a favourably placed one as well it appears. We might be looking at Greenland blocking in a few weeks.

[alexisj9]

21 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Scorcher! 

Exactly. I see cold dry charts for here, but look north, and yes it's milder, and probably cloudier too. Temps will stay cold where fog lingers.

[Eagle Eye]

Most models agreeing very well at 240 hours in where the Vortex displaces and the movement away from Greenland. Good signs but I'd still prefer a split to get a good trop response. This appears to be what would be a slow downwelling over a couple weeks if it is without a split.

[Vikos]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

ECM showing a displacement of the SPV to Asia

Can you provide me a link please to those FU Berlin () charts?

regards

[Eagle Eye]

3 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Can you provide me a link please to those FU Berlin () charts?

regards

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi2j97UzoX9AhUQaMAKHYB9BLkQFnoECAoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.geo.fu-berlin.de%2Fen%2Fmet%2Fag%2Fstrat%2Fprodukte%2Fwinterdiagnostics%2Findex.html&usg=AOvVaw0SwEPQhDDialgMxZjqU3km

Analysis but also has forecasts on them.

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, Eagle Eye said:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi2j97UzoX9AhUQaMAKHYB9BLkQFnoECAoQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.geo.fu-berlin.de%2Fen%2Fmet%2Fag%2Fstrat%2Fprodukte%2Fwinterdiagnostics%2Findex.html&usg=AOvVaw0SwEPQhDDialgMxZjqU3km

Analysis but also has forecasts on them.

Hang on a minute, are these what we thought we didn't have this year? @Mike Poole?

[minus10]

Well trying to find some light at the end of the 'well above average ' tunnel..

...from peaking at + 5 the 0z 850s mean on gfes and ec are slowly declining back to zero...whether anything can be read into that ..direction of travel and all that..of course could/will change next run..

...also this chart not far away from being decent re scandi high..

...last night cold night with extensive frost...which is one thing this winter has delivered here...

 

[Nick F]

Nice to see some of the Berlin / EC strat charts back, though only the geopotential heights/temps available, be good to see the cross sections and wind fluxes return too.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said: “There is now over 80-per cent chance of a major SSW occurring.
 

Here we go.  The date record cold March I touted last year looks to be nicely in the Mix.  They anticipate it to occur in about 7 days time

 

BFTP

[andymusic]

16 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, said: “There is now over 80-per cent chance of a major SSW occurring.
 

Here we go.  The date record cold March I touted last year looks to be nicely in the Mix.  They anticipate it to occur in about 7 days time

 

BFTP

Sounds like we are on a promise then - thunderbirds are go lol

[Panayiotis]

On 31/01/2023 at 08:08, Panayiotis said:

Doesn’t the PV ramp up before a SSW? I wonder if that’s what’s going on now…I can remember it being said a few years ago, can anyone help with the topic?

Coincidence? 

[Mike Poole]

41 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Hang on a minute, are these what we thought we didn't have this year? @Mike Poole?

Yes, good to see some of these charts back at the crucial moment.  Now the ssw is in ECM range, will give us a better idea of how it is unfolding.

GEFS SSW percent back up to 77% on the 0z.  GFS op shows a slightly stronger warming than the last two runs, I think.  

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Panayiotis said:

Coincidence? 

No, the minor warming in Jan has flushed down westerly winds from the previous very strong strat vortex.  It took two bites of the cherry to get the SSW (probably, not certain yet), the first bite caused the trop PV to temporarily strengthen.