Summer 2023 chat

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Cloudy, 7c discusting weather

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Cloudy, 7c discusting weather

You ought to consider relocating, Beks... It's 8C over here! 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

You ought to consider relocating, Beks... It's 8C over here! 

You got space for me?

[Weather Enthusiast91]

My gut feeling is for a washout first couple of months of spring (particularly April), followed by an anticyclonic May with very little rainfall.

Edited February 23, 2023 by Weather Enthusiast91

[Sunny76]

I’m guessing we will get a thundery summer this time. Similar to the late august and early September period of 2022, but more concentrated in the May to August period this time.

A mix of warm and cool spells, but a much cloudier summer I think. 

[Azazel]

On 25/02/2023 at 13:34, Sunny76 said:

I’m guessing we will get a thundery summer this time. Similar to the late august and early September period of 2022, but more concentrated in the May to August period this time.

A mix of warm and cool spells, but a much cloudier summer I think. 

It can’t be any less thundery than summer 2022 for my location.

incredible light show on that May evening and then absolutely nothing at all until October. At least if there was anything in the summer I missed it and can’t remember it 

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, Azazel said:

It can’t be any less thundery than summer 2022 for my location.

incredible light show on that May evening and then absolutely nothing at all until October. At least if there was anything in the summer I missed it and can’t remember it 

Yeah the storms were very localised I think. That’s been the case now since about 2018.

I have a feeling 2023 will break this trend and bring us a widespread thunderstorm event. 
 

It’s going to happen again, just a case of when.

[Metwatch]

Latest Met Office contingency planner is out looking ahead to Spring 2023.

Highest chance of near average temperatures, rainfall & wind for the 3 Month period.

However, a greater chance than normal of a warmer & dry spring.

March looks to still be on the cooler side of things but a warm into April expected.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

With a continued evolution in phases 6>8 of the MJO, March likely to have blocking especially around Greenland as a common theme with some current outlooks perhaps extending this close to April tho we'll need to see how the progression into future phases plays out. I'm really quite keen to see the differences in this summers conditions as the recent and current MJO phases and associated WWB's are bringing Ninà to its end with Enso neutral through spring and current expectations of Ninò by summer.

[LetItSnow!]

Nowadays you never know but I feel like two back to back "classic" summers is probably rather unlikely. I imagine something closer to 2021 rather than 2022, maybe even a relatively cool and unsettled one. Of interest, we haven't had a June with a C.E.T. below 14 since 2013, ten years! June was a month that escaped the warming trend during the 1990s, picked up in the 2000s but then from 2008-2015 was a pretty tame affair. After that we've seen June more than make up for it with several very warm ones. Can June 2023 break this run?

 

I'd say a cool and damp June, a warm but unsettled July with a lot of thunder and then a cloudy and damp August but not remarkably cool - something like August 2007 or something. Coming in close to the long term average, overall a slightly wet summer but wettest in the east and drier out west. Probably not buckets of sunshine either.

Edited February 27, 2023 by LetItSnow!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I will be growing some jalapenos this year, so a nice spring with a good mix of showers, sunshine and warmth is paramount. I don't want a cool spring like 2021, but I don't want a very dry spring like 2020 either. A mixed spring is what I am hoping for.

[damianslaw]

Perhaps a slow start to Spring this year, we are probaby have the annual dry spell now i.e. since late January. A more interesting March and April with cold at times. May could be a good month, perhaps with a deep atlantic trough and continental block to the east, warm easterlies anyone...

Summer too far off to think about.

Spring is on average by far our most interesting season synoptic wise, easterlies and northerlies more common than any other time of year, the clash of arctic air and southerly air, cyclonic conditions that can hang around for a while with low pressure systems doing about u turns, a ragged jet, blocking features that hold the atlantic at bay. It also contains May my favourite month, there is a very different feeling start of March compared to mid May, just like early Sept compared to mid Nov, it is a season of rapid change but rarely gets going until the equinox and April can see the push and pull of winter and summer.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I will be growing some jalapenos this year, so a nice spring with a good mix of showers, sunshine and warmth is paramount. I don't want a cool spring like 2021, but I don't want a very dry spring like 2020 either. A mixed spring is what I am hoping for.

If I had to choose, I would prefer a 2020 spring, with lots of sunshine. 2021 was horrible, even with the sunny April, it just felt cold for longer periods.

May 21 was vile.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

If I had to choose, I would prefer a 2020 spring, with lots of sunshine. 2021 was horrible, even with the sunny April, it just felt cold for longer periods.

May 21 was vile.

Yes, if I had to choose then it would be 2020.

[TheOgre]

I hope we get some wet weather in March as the weather is bound to flip at some point as it’s been so dry. I’d hate to see a flip in April like 2012.

In terms of summer, I think we’ll get a warm and thundery or wettish one. I know pattern matching doesn’t always work but hot dry summers in my lifetime have either been succeeded by warm wettish ones; 2013 to 2014 or 2018 to 2019.
Having said that many others classics have been followed by abysmal summers like 1911 to 1912, 1976 to 1977 and 2006 to 2007

Edited February 28, 2023 by TheOgre

[S Bragg]

I'd love to see a cooler, cloudier and wetter than average summer this year, kind of like how 2007 followed on from 2006.  Anything but the heat of last year thanks.  A warm, sunny spring wouldn't be too bad though.

[Sunny76]

3 hours ago, S Bragg said:

I'd love to see a cooler, cloudier and wetter than average summer this year, kind of like how 2007 followed on from 2006.  Anything but the heat of last year thanks.  A warm, sunny spring wouldn't be too bad though.

No thanks.

I really don’t want another 2007-12 type summer, but if it’s to be, then 2009 is probably the one I would go for, but even that had a terrible July.

I would be happy with a 2013 type summer, but don’t want a cooler and cloudy one with rain.  That’s just too much.

[damianslaw]

20 hours ago, TheOgre said:

I hope we get some wet weather in March as the weather is bound to flip at some point as it’s been so dry. I’d hate to see a flip in April like 2012.

In terms of summer, I think we’ll get a warm and thundery or wettish one. I know pattern matching doesn’t always work but hot dry summers in my lifetime have either been succeeded by warm wettish ones; 2013 to 2014 or 2018 to 2019.
Having said that many others classics have been followed by abysmal summers like 1911 to 1912, 1976 to 1977 and 2006 to 2007

Commented before how long protracted dry periods have a habit of switching to persistent wet periods, the transition between April and May 1997 being a very good example, also Sept to October 2006, March to April 2012 another case, June 2020 to July 2020 another good example. We are also moving out of La Nina towards El Nino which could fire the atlantic somewhat after 2 years and 3 months of barely doing anything.

[Bradley in Kent]

Like many I do feel this year will be much cooler and wetter compared to last year. My knowledge on global mechanics is limited but I can't help wonder if the dice are freshly rolled each season. You'll unlikely roll a pair of 6s twice in a row but it's not impossible. Nowadays the atmosphere responds pretty quick to solar input especially over mainland Europe so it'll come down to how much of that we feed off that.

I am still going for an average summer but with more rain and humidity, perhaps a 2016 / 2014 combo. 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Commented before how long protracted dry periods have a habit of switching to persistent wet periods, the transition between April and May 1997 being a very good example, also Sept to October 2006, March to April 2012 another case, June 2020 to July 2020 another good example. We are also moving out of La Nina towards El Nino which could fire the atlantic somewhat after 2 years and 3 months of barely doing anything.

That means a very mild winter next year then if El Niño is coming in. 

56 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

Like many I do feel this year will be much cooler and wetter compared to last year. My knowledge on global mechanics is limited but I can't help wonder if the dice are freshly rolled each season. You'll unlikely roll a pair of 6s twice in a row but it's not impossible. Nowadays the atmosphere responds pretty quick to solar input especially over mainland Europe so it'll come down to how much of that we feed off that.

I am still going for an average summer but with more rain and humidity, perhaps a 2016 / 2014 combo. 

I have a feeling we will see more thunderstorms this summer or at least one widespread thunderstorm event between May and August.

[Freeze]

27 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

 

I have a feeling we will see more thunderstorms this summer or at least one widespread thunderstorm event between May and August.

I saw more thunderstorms last summer than in any year in my life between may and october, if there's more then I'd be very happy.

[Cheshire Freeze]

32 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

That means a very mild winter next year then if El Niño is coming in. 

I have a feeling we will see more thunderstorms this summer or at least one widespread thunderstorm event between May and August.

Depends where the positive anomalies are placed and how strong the event is. Looks like El Niño may peak early autumn. A moderate Modoki El Niño would be ok for winter…it’s a set up that has a reasonably good correlation to cold UK winters (09/10 was one).

[danm]

If we get anything like the summer of 2022, I'll be a very happy man. 

We've had a run of generally very good summers, at least for the SE. The exception was 2021 which was cooler, wetter and cloudier than all other summers over the last 6 or 7 years - although I know for more NW'ern areas 2021 was a good summer. 

We are frequently breaking the 35 degree barrier now in summer. It will be interesting to see what happens this year. 

[reef]

The forecast has been rubbish the last few days. It might be high pressure of 1030-1035hPa but it has been anything but "dry and cloudy" like the forecasts have persistently gone with.

Instead we've had almost constant showers which have now totalled nearly 13mm in the last 48 hours.

Although many aren't looking forward to the colder Arctic air next week at least it'll most likely be dry and sunny, if colder.

[Methuselah]

2 hours ago, danm said:

If we get anything like the summer of 2022, I'll be a very happy man. 

We've had a run of generally very good summers, at least for the SE. The exception was 2021 which was cooler, wetter and cloudier than all other summers over the last 6 or 7 years - although I know for more NW'ern areas 2021 was a good summer. 

We are frequently breaking the 35 degree barrier now in summer. It will be interesting to see what happens this year. 

With ENSO passing through neutral into possibly a weak El Nino, the coming summer looks interesting: Will the change be sufficient to overwhelm whatever has caused the excess heat of the past five summers -- or are we in for another roaster?