Summer 2023 chat

[SunSean]

How's this for an absurd and shocking fact- The 1st March (including today- grey all day) has only recorded more than 0.3 hours of sunshine once in the past 8 years, using my nearest station- Shoeburyness. That's a pitiful 18 minutes of sunshine max for the 1st of March- the only rare exception to beat that rubbish total being 2020. So basically, 1st March is duller than most days in December & January!! Equally pitiful and bizarre.

[summer blizzard]

4 hours ago, Methuselah said:

With ENSO passing through neutral into possibly a weak El Nino, the coming summer looks interesting: Will the change be sufficient to overwhelm whatever has caused the excess heat of the past five summers -- or are we in for another roaster? 

The years which see a Nina to Nino flip actually tend to produce the 18C+ summer months (equally the years which just decay into neutral tend to feature horrific summers). 2018 was such a flip year as was 1976. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

The years which see a Nina to Nino flip actually tend to produce the 18C+ summer months (equally the years which just decay into neutral tend to feature horrific summers). 2018 was such a flip year as was 1976. 

It’s the travel through ENSO neutral that does it. Absolutely nothing to prevent anything other than the Azores HP ridging in. If we’re weak or neutral ENSO in July then brace yourself for heat.

We should expect a very wet period of weather once El Niño asserts itself though.

Edited March 1, 2023 by CreweCold

[summer blizzard]

My updated thoughts for Q2 and Q3..

 

April - Signal is now for a much cooler April (more anamolous than March actually) albeit quite dry. Blocking west of the UK. 

May - Signal is now for a rather average albeit perhaps wet May with a dominant westerly pattern as before. 

June - Signal is now for a relatively warm June with no strong precipitation signal. Plumey perhaps. 

July - Signal is now for a similar month to June in terms of outcomes albeit stronger signal for the Azores High to be closer to its normal position near our south west.

August - Signal is now for a similar month to July in terms of outcomes albeit stronger signal for the Azores High to be closer to its normal position near our south west

 

Sadly for myself then although spring could potentially be more seasonal, summer looks warmer than average at this juncture. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

My updated thoughts for Q2 and Q3..

 

April - Signal is now for a much cooler April (more anamolous than March actually) albeit quite dry. Blocking west of the UK. 

May - Signal is now for a rather average albeit perhaps wet May with a dominant westerly pattern as before. 

June - Signal is now for a relatively warm June with no strong precipitation signal. Plumey perhaps. 

July - Signal is now for a similar month to June in terms of outcomes albeit stronger signal for the Azores High to be closer to its normal position near our south west.

August - Signal is now for a similar month to July in terms of outcomes albeit stronger signal for the Azores High to be closer to its normal position near our south west

 

Sadly for myself then although spring could potentially be more seasonal, summer looks warmer than average at this juncture. 

I’ve seen some forecasts showing El Niño as moderate by August. If that happens then it’ll be a different month to those preceding it. 

[summer blizzard]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I’ve seen some forecasts showing El Niño as moderate by August. If that happens then it’ll be a different month to those preceding it. 

Ignoring the fact that that we have seen a number of Nino attempts fizzle post-spring and thus i'm not convinced we'll get a notable event at this stage, models are typically too agressive. One only needs look at the epic Euro fail last year (curtosy of americanwx). 

That said, the median of our flip year analogues following multi year Nina's are below.. (ONI - 72, 76, 09, 18)

July: +0.6
August: +0.8
September: +1.0
October: +1.3
November: +1.5 (Peak)
December: +1.4

 

However the mean of years which fail to generate a flip and just wane is below (and make up 50% of post-multi year Nina so must'nt be ruled out yet)(ONI - 56, 85, 01, 12)

July: -0.2
August: -0.1
September: 0.0
October: -0.1
November: -0.3
December: -0.3

Note that they actually tend to cool a little during Autumn. 

- We should know by summer but essentially if we are not pushing 0.5 by Q3 then it's entirely possible that nothing much happens. 

[Sunny76]

12 hours ago, danm said:

If we get anything like the summer of 2022, I'll be a very happy man. 

We've had a run of generally very good summers, at least for the SE. The exception was 2021 which was cooler, wetter and cloudier than all other summers over the last 6 or 7 years - although I know for more NW'ern areas 2021 was a good summer. 

We are frequently breaking the 35 degree barrier now in summer. It will be interesting to see what happens this year. 

Hmm not sure I agree.

2015, 16, 19, 20 and 21 all had decent spells, but also contained a number of days and weeks of unsettled or dull periods in between hot spells.

2017 was also fairly poor but had a decent June and first half of July but the august was rotten. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

2017 was also fairly poor but had a decent June and first half of July but the august was rotten. 

August 2017 was comfortable for sleeping! 

[MP-R]

6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

It’s the travel through ENSO neutral that does it. Absolutely nothing to prevent anything other than the Azores HP ridging in. If we’re weak or neutral ENSO in July then brace yourself for heat.

We should expect a very wet period of weather once El Niño asserts itself though.

Do you know of a site that shows the ENSO state month by month in years gone by as I’m interested to see how pre Nino peak summers have behaved. 
 

Thanks in advance!

[Cheshire Freeze]

On 02/03/2023 at 00:22, MP-R said:

Do you know of a site that shows the ENSO state month by month in years gone by as I’m interested to see how pre Nino peak summers have behaved. 
 

Thanks in advance!

@summer blizzardis definitely the man for that

[CoventryWeather]

I'm going for a milder summer again, and a dry one again. Can't see much rainfall - probably similar to last year. Really depends on plumes. 

A plumey June and July with lows to the south west seem reasonable in the long range forecasts. August looks a little wetter on the forecasts I've seen (don't know if that does anything with El Nino). 

I doubt we'll see 40 again, but we said that last year and it happened. Like to hear some others thoughts. 

[Weather-history]

I am not hopeful about this summer as I mentioned awhile back. Get the feeling there is going to be  break down in the long period of dryness and I think the SSW may have lingering effects.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

18 hours ago, CoventryWeather said:

I'm going for a milder summer again, and a dry one again. Can't see much rainfall - probably similar to last year. Really depends on plumes. 

A plumey June and July with lows to the south west seem reasonable in the long range forecasts. August looks a little wetter on the forecasts I've seen (don't know if that does anything with El Nino). 

I doubt we'll see 40 again, but we said that last year and it happened. Like to hear some others thoughts. 

I agree that as things stand August looks the wettest month, potentially. I'd lean towards it ushering in a generally more disturbed autumn than we've been used to.

Heat spikes look more than possible during June and July...but perhaps with more in the way of heavy and convective rainfall in comparison to last year.

Edited March 4, 2023 by CreweCold

[Don]

On 03/03/2023 at 08:42, Weather-history said:

I am not hopeful about this summer as I mentioned awhile back. Get the feeling there is going to be  break down in the long period of dryness and I think the SSW may have lingering effects.

 

SSW's don't seem to have much of a bearing on summer though, 2013 and 2018 both had SSW's and the summer's which followed were hot (particularly 2018).

[snowsummer]

On 01/03/2023 at 12:51, Methuselah said:

With ENSO passing through neutral into possibly a weak El Nino, the coming summer looks interesting: Will the change be sufficient to overwhelm whatever has caused the excess heat of the past five summers -- or are we in for another roaster? 

The last two times we've  came out of longer than usual la ninas we've  ended up going rapidly into a very strong el ninos. Wonder if the same thing will happen this year? Could be devastating for some countries if we get the heat of last summer again

[Don]

8 hours ago, snowsummer said:

The last two times we've  came out of longer than usual la ninas we've  ended up going rapidly into a very strong el ninos. Wonder if the same thing will happen this year? Could be devastating for some countries if we get the heat of last summer again

I hope not!!

Edited March 5, 2023 by Don

[Summer8906]

My guess is still for this year to peak in May and June, and those to be the best months of the year.

I'm not sure if spring is included in this discussion, but I'm rather doubting we'll get a notably warm and sunny April this year, because it's rare for a March with significant cold spells to be followed by a warm sunny April. I think 1987 is the only example since 1980. So I'm guessing April to be a typical spring mix, not too bad but not exceptional either.

My gut feeling is for a warm and rather thundery May, if only because, so far, this year has had quite strong similarities to 1993, 1998 and 2008, and all three featured a May of that kind. Also it's been a while since we've had a classic easterly May with low pressure over the continent and high pressure over Scotland.

It's also now been a while since the last really fine, settled June, so guessing we might have one this year. Even 2018, while very dry, was also rather cloudy for the first three weeks; it's been a long time since the last classic sunny June. So how about this year, and for fun, how about June 2023 to be the sunniest month on record?

Not so sure about July and Aug though. I fear these may return to post-2007 type: July cloudy, dry at first becoming wetter later, and August typically cloudy and changeable. I'm more optimistic for a fine autumn as it's now been a real while...

All completely guesswork and gut feeling though.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 04/03/2023 at 01:43, CreweCold said:

I agree that as things stand August looks the wettest month, potentially. I'd lean towards it ushering in a generally more disturbed autumn than we've been used to.

Though arguably, autumns 2019, 2020 and 2022 were distinctly disturbed. It's actually been a long time now since the last benign October (2018) down here.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 01/03/2023 at 17:58, summer blizzard said:

My updated thoughts for Q2 and Q3..

 

April - Signal is now for a much cooler April (more anamolous than March actually) albeit quite dry. Blocking west of the UK. 

Will be remarkable if that happens again, following 2021; cold and dry is a very uncommon combination for spring and summer months.

No complaints if that happens though. I actually enjoyed the weather of April 2021...

On 01/03/2023 at 17:58, summer blizzard said:

May - Signal is now for a rather average albeit perhaps wet May with a dominant westerly pattern as before. 

... as long as we don't have to pay for it with another poor May. Incidentally has there been an increased tendency for Atlantic-driven Mays recently? I'm sure it's becoming more westerly and less blocked; previously a westerly May was a rare thing yet we've now had 2 on the trot in 2021 and 2022, and ISTR other examples recently too.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

On 01/03/2023 at 13:11, SunSean said:

How's this for an absurd and shocking fact- The 1st March (including today- grey all day) has only recorded more than 0.3 hours of sunshine once in the past 8 years, using my nearest station- Shoeburyness. That's a pitiful 18 minutes of sunshine max for the 1st of March- the only rare exception to beat that rubbish total being 2020. So basically, 1st March is duller than most days in December & January!! Equally pitiful and bizarre.

It's an interesting contrast to something I've observed about September 1, which seems to be the sunniest first of the month on average!

Feb going into March always seems to be a little changeable; this year it was not, but it was certainly dull. The sun did arrive for one day on the 2nd though.

[Summer8906]

On 28/02/2023 at 20:42, Bradley in Kent said:

Like many I do feel this year will be much cooler and wetter compared to last year. My knowledge on global mechanics is limited but I can't help wonder if the dice are freshly rolled each season. You'll unlikely roll a pair of 6s twice in a row but it's not impossible. Nowadays the atmosphere responds pretty quick to solar input especially over mainland Europe so it'll come down to how much of that we feed off that.

I am still going for an average summer but with more rain and humidity, perhaps a 2016 / 2014 combo. 

Of course, a 2016/2014 combo depends which months we combine.

Jun 2014/July 2014/Aug 2016 - summer from heaven

Jun 2016/July 2016/Aug 2014 - not quite the summer from hell (as July 2016 was cloudy but dry) but certainly getting that way...

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

One thing I can guarantee this summer is the model chat thread will be full of  popular phrases such as "more runs needed", "over to the ECM", "pub run is drunk", "the downgrades have begun" just to name a few lol

[Cheshire Freeze]

The ECM seasonal is going for a very notable UK HP scenario through summer....right the way throughout.

If that's the case then expect some drought issues.

I'd say that if the ECMWF seasonal comes to fruition, we may well have two consecutive summers where 40c is breached. The mean leaves room for heat plumes...and with a dry ground I think there is a possibility such a thing could happen again. I'll be buying an aircon unit soon as I cannot go on like last year with that heat.

Edited March 7, 2023 by CreweCold

[Cheshire Freeze]

CFS

EC seasonal

Both virtually identical around the UK. Looks to me like a HP dominated summer is odds on.

EDIT: GLOSEA completes the set

 

Edited March 12, 2023 by CreweCold

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

CFS

EC seasonal

Both virtually identical around the UK. Looks to me like a HP dominated summer is odds on.

EDIT: GLOSEA completes the set

 

Shocking, have we become the home of an almost perminant high pressure or something, it's not been far away for quite a while now.