Summer 2023 chat

[alexisj9]

14 hours ago, Don said:

I found the second week of August 2020 to be particularly uncomfortable.  Funny old month that was with the second half being generally cool and unsettled.  As for the 18th/19th July last year, I didn't even leave the house!

Same, but the house was also hot. Until Tuesday evening because I play pool for a team. Left the house fine, ten minutes later when I arrived at the club, mouth was dry, and I was faint. Thankfully yet another drink sorted that out, orange juice. Had been struggling the whole day though. It was the hot wind during the walk, dried me right out.

[matt111]

It’s rather bright today and the sky is this strange blue colour. 

Oh this is the summer thread, I thought it was the spring one. Oh well I hope I see lots of this mysterious phenomenon during the summer.  

Edited March 14, 2023 by matt111

[Sunny76]

I think a good start to late May, after a cool or cold dull period, and maybe a week of cold dull weather in early June, before a long spell of warm sunny dry weather sets in until mid July.

Mid July to mid august will be cool and damp, then the second half of august will be hot and sunny with a couple of thunderstorms towards the end.

[snowsummer]

My perfect spring and  summer this year? A lovely warm week, maybe 23, for the 24th april. 5 days will do actually, for anyone on the south coast.   A slightly warmer spell for a week starting 8th may, more so on the cornish coast  for anyone holidaying that week!!  A hot week from the 19th june, especially  the norfolk area, ( slight breeze thrown in for anyone who may be taking a few trips on some steam trains!!). Nice july and august with overnight thunderstorms  for people staying in their gardens!  End of September a mild affair, warm winds coming up for france, ( for anyone needing some heat at Disney!!!) These hopes run along side  the hopes i have every year of a winter nirvana. And we all know how those hopes normally  go! 

[summer blizzard]

3 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

I'm not saying anything much but err...

Maybe not a UK-Scandi high but according to the ECM this summer could be looking like a proper hot setup.

Euro is forecasting a strong Nino event by Autumn hence fairly significant AAM increases no doubt during summer. 

Probably worth saying that according to analysis it does tend to verify too strong. 

[summer blizzard]

Looking at our analogue pack for this summer if Nino develops, i took a look for 17C+ months and <16C months during July and August.

1957

1972

1976

1986

2002

2009

2014

2018

..

July

Warm - 3

Cool - 3

 

August 

Warm - 1

Cool - 4

 

Of our 8 July's, average is marginally less favoured than warm or cool but no real pattern when we limit to Nino's following multi-year events.  For August an average to cool month is favoured over a warm month (however this may be a reflection that August has seen significant average warming from pre-1990 averages). The analogue set favours an average May and June. 

Applying a QBO filter (since 1979) and 1986, 2009 and 2014 are our strongest analogues (July 14 aside, they were unremarkable or poor).  

Applying a PDO filter should the Pacific refuse to play ball (March saw the most negative PDO value since 1956 for March) and 1972, 2009 and 2018 are closest. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Looking at our analogue pack for this summer if Nino develops, i took a look for 17C+ months and <16C months during July and August.

1957

1972

1976

1986

2002

2009

2014

2018

..

July

Warm - 3

Cool - 3

 

August 

Warm - 1

Cool - 4

 

Of our 8 July's, average is marginally less favoured than warm or cool but no real pattern when we limit to Nino's following multi-year events.  For August an average to cool month is favoured over a warm month (however this may be a reflection that August has seen significant average warming from pre-1990 averages). The analogue set favours an average May and June. 

Applying a QBO filter (since 1979) and 1986, 2009 and 2014 are our strongest analogues (July 14 aside, they were unremarkable or poor).  

Applying a PDO filter should the Pacific refuse to play ball (March saw the most negative PDO value since 1956 for March) and 1972, 2009 and 2018 are closest. 

The EC seasonal is not looking good for us who detest heat and humidity. I can only hope that if it does come to fruition we at least get some notable storm episodes.

[Don]

4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Euro is forecasting a strong Nino event by Autumn hence fairly significant AAM increases no doubt during summer.  

That does not give me a good feeling at all (think you know what I'm alluding too!!) but this isn't really the right thread for that!

[Don]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

The EC seasonal is not looking good for us who detest heat and humidity. I can only hope that if it does come to fruition we at least get some notable storm episodes.

I would like a summer at least without any of those fearsome heat spikes which have been common since 2015 and are progressively getting hotter and hotter!!  Long range seasonals not looking good for some of us, in fact, I'm getting the feeling 2023 will be yet another bad year for cold lovers!

[Sunny76]

I’m looking forward to a nice sunny warm or hot summer.

 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I’m looking forward to a nice sunny warm or hot summer.

 

I don't want it to be too hot, temps between 25 and 30C would be fine by me.

[Schnee]

Some (not dangerous) spectacular storms would be good for a change! Decent storms have been getting so illusive over the years, especially after heatwaves.

Also no 40C this year plz. It would cost £15-17/day not £5/day as it cost last year on the old tarrif.....

[*Stormforce~beka*]

13 hours ago, Don said:

I don't want it to be too hot, temps between 25 and 30C would be fine by me.

Perfect!

[Weather Enthusiast91]

6 hours ago, Stelmer said:

Some (not dangerous) spectacular storms would be good for a change! Decent storms have been getting so illusive over the years, especially after heatwaves.

We are certainly overdue a decent summer thunderstorm event now. Most of the thunderstorms in recent years have been few and far between and don't usually last long.

There is nothing like a good thunderstorm after a period of hot weather. 

[al78]

15 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

We are certainly overdue a decent summer thunderstorm event now. Most of the thunderstorms in recent years have been few and far between and don't usually last long.

There is nothing like a good thunderstorm after a period of hot weather. 

As long as it doesn't come through at 2am when I have to be on duty at 7:30am, which seems to be the theme for noisy thunderstorms in West Sussex these days.

[Sunny76]

15 hours ago, Don said:

I don't want it to be too hot, temps between 25 and 30C would be fine by me.

I’ll take that

But, I don’t want weeks of 21c and cloudy weather.

26 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

We are certainly overdue a decent summer thunderstorm event now. Most of the thunderstorms in recent years have been few and far between and don't usually last long.

There is nothing like a good thunderstorm after a period of hot weather. 

The general consensus here is, we will expect something in the latter stages of May, after a brief warm to hot spell.

 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

The general consensus here is, we will expect something in the latter stages of May, after a brief warm to hot spell.

 

Fingers crossed. 

[Sunny76]

41 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

Fingers crossed. 

I have a feeling it’s going to happen. Saturday 27th May, evening and overnight storms, with more storms on Sunday 28th.

[Freeze]

1 hour ago, al78 said:

As long as it doesn't come through at 2am when I have to be on duty at 7:30am, which seems to be the theme for noisy thunderstorms in West Sussex these days.

We only get them in the middle of the night here, daytime storms are very rare although had one last year.

[LetItSnow!]

23 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Looking at our analogue pack for this summer if Nino develops, i took a look for 17C+ months and <16C months during July and August.

1957

1972

1976

1986

2002

2009

2014

2018

..

July

Warm - 3

Cool - 3

 

August 

Warm - 1

Cool - 4

 

Of our 8 July's, average is marginally less favoured than warm or cool but no real pattern when we limit to Nino's following multi-year events.  For August an average to cool month is favoured over a warm month (however this may be a reflection that August has seen significant average warming from pre-1990 averages). The analogue set favours an average May and June. 

Applying a QBO filter (since 1979) and 1986, 2009 and 2014 are our strongest analogues (July 14 aside, they were unremarkable or poor).  

Applying a PDO filter should the Pacific refuse to play ball (March saw the most negative PDO value since 1956 for March) and 1972, 2009 and 2018 are closest. 

As usual, some visual analogues for those years. 

 

June

July

August

June looks most favoured for dry and warm weather whereas July looks perhaps warm but changeable and thundery. Very strong poor signal for August and in particular for the south. If these are anything to go by then mainland Europe could have a notably poor summer and any heat is more sourced from the east - that would probably include less extreme temperatures but more generally warm, the opposite of recent summers. 

Narrowing it down to the selected years you get…

June

July

August

 

A similar, if not poorer set of analogues. Still the best month shows as June then deteriorating into quite a poor July and a very unsettled August. I wonder if normal August service will resume in 2023 after August 2022 became the first good one in a very long while. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Interestingly the CFS seems to be drifting away from the EC seasonal prognosis

June and August look potentially wet on that.

Here's the tri-monthly average

Edited April 7, 2023 by CreweCold

[damianslaw]

Preference wise I much prefer the first half of the summer to produce the best conditions - maximise light and sunshine levels, but statistically the second half is usually the warmer of the two halves, but also the wettest as well - hence I'm not a fan of the muggy wet August. 

Summer still feels a long way, but by mid-May it can often come hurtling towards us at speed with sunshine levels nearing their yearly maxim peak. My expectations for summer drop markedly once August arrives, conversely my expectations for fine warm weather increase rapidly once May arrives, and I tend to think of May as a summer month nowadays largely because it is often sunnier and much drier than August and it is lighter, and on occasion can often deliver sustained warmth that feels every bit as warm as heat in August.

Edited April 10, 2023 by damianslaw

[Sun Chaser]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Preference wise I much prefer the first half of the summer to produce the best conditions - maximise light and sunshine levels, but statistically the second half is usually the warmer of the two halves, but also the wettest as well - hence I'm not a fan of the muggy wet August. 

Summer still feels a long way, but by mid-May it can often come hurtling towards us at speed with sunshine levels nearing their yearly maxim peak. My expectations for summer drop markedly once August arrives, conversely my expectations for fine warm weather increase rapidly once May arrives, and I tend to think of May as a summer month nowadays largely because it is often sunnier and much drier than August and it is lighter, and on occasion can often deliver sustained warmth that feels every bit as warm as heat in August.

Our last two Mays were quite disappointing. Hoping for a different this year!

On a positive note, we may finally be getting a taste of summer next week with what looks to be a lovely spell of April weather in the high teens and early twenties, with light winds and lots of sunshine. I'm very much looking forward to it!

[Sunny76]

On 11/04/2023 at 08:59, plymsunshine said:

Our last two Mays were quite disappointing. Hoping for a different this year!

On a positive note, we may finally be getting a taste of summer next week with what looks to be a lovely spell of April weather in the high teens and early twenties, with light winds and lots of sunshine. I'm very much looking forward to it!

May 2020 was the last decent one, but there were some pleasant days in May 22. 
 

2021 was rotten until way past mid month. 

[Sun Chaser]

15 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

May 2020 was the last decent one, but there were some pleasant days in May 22. 
 

2021 was rotten until way past mid month. 

May 2020 was far more than decent. Possibly one of my favourite months ever considering it was the sunniest month of all time full stop in England (or at least since 1909?? I'm not sure someone correct me if I'm wrong). So May 2020 was golden and everything May then seems to be punishing us, at least in terms of sunshine.

May 2021 was rotten until around the 26th, which switched from freezing and cloudy in the morning to warm and sunny in the afternoon, and set the tone for most of June. May 27th was then absolutely glorious. I remember it well because May 2021 was the month in which I did my GCSEs, I spent all month hoping that the summer wasn't going to start in the same way, and thankfully my last day there, on the 27th, finally gave us sunny weather. Then we had a nice warm spell of weather from 28 May - 1 June. However the month was horrible overall.

May 2022, very forgettable, somehow even duller than 2021 here(!!!). Lots of Atlantic drizzle and low cloud, however quite warm airmasses so the days when the sun came out ended being quite nice - five days overall I think. The month actually got cooler as it went on and the second half of May was rather grim.