March 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

March CET averages and extremes

__ All CET data now converted to v2.0.

__ The forty-two most recent March CET values 1981-2022 are arranged by warmest (bold type) 16 (not 14 due to ties), middle 12 (italics) and coldest 14 (underlined). Ties in this table are for one decimal values, the CET table has ranks based on second decimals that are not shown there or here.

 

15.2 ... warmest March daily mean (30th, 2017)

14.7 ... previous warmest March daily mean (27th, 1777)

 9.2 ... Warmest March (1957)

 9.1 ... 2nd warmest March (1938)

 8.8 ... 3rd warmest March (2017)

 8.3 ... t4th warmest March (1948, 1990, 1997, 2012)

 8.2 ... t8th warmest March and warmest before 20th century (1750, tied with 1961)

 8.1 ... 10th warmest March 1734

 8.0 ... 11th warmest March 2022
 

 7.9 ... t12th warmest March 1779, 1780, 1945, 1981,  2019

 7.8 ... t17th warmest March 1822, 1991, 1998

 7.7 ... (ranks and pre-1981 ties no longer in table) 2014

 7.6 ... 1994, 2002 

 7.5 ... 1989, 1992, 2000, 2003 

 7.3 ... 1999, 2007, 2021 

 7.1 ... 2005, 2009

 6.8 ... 2011, 2020 ... warmest 30-year avg (each of 1988-2017, 1989-2018, 1990-2019)

 6.7 ... mean of 1991-2020 (6.747) ... also mean of 1993-2022 (6.747), 2001-22 (6.70)

 6.6 ... 1993 and mean of 1981-2010  (6.57)

 6.5 ... 2004, 2015

 6.4 ... 1983, 1988

 6.2 ... 2010 and mean of 1971-2000 (6.24)

 6.1 ... 2008

 6.0 ... 1982, also, the first 30-year average to round off to 6.0 was 1966-95

 5.9 ... the first 30-year average to round off to 5.9 was 1938-67 (5.947) then it fell back as low as 5.5 1958-87.

 5.8 ... 2016 and mean of 20th century (1901-2000) (5.84)

 5.7 ... mean of 1961-1990 (5.67)

 5.5 ... 1995 ... (1815-1844 average, a slight peak in a long series near 5.5, ending with 1822-51, 5.5 not seen again until 1893-1922)

 5.4 ... mean of all 364 years (1659-2022) _ now 5.37 rounded up

 5.2 ... 2001 and mean of 19th century (1801-1900)

 5.0 ... 1986, 2006, 2018 and mean of 18th century (1701-1800)

 4.9 ... (1863-1892 the last 30 yr average to fall below 5.0 and the only one after 1785-1814)

 4.7 ... 1984, 1985 ... (1742-1771 average, a secondary minimum after 4.3; was up to 5.5 1710-39)

 4.6 ... mean of (CET portion of) 17th century (1659-1700)

 4.5 ... 1996  

 4.3 ... average 1672-1701 (4.31) and 1673-1702, 1674-1703 (4.34), lowest 30-year averages of series

 4.1 ... 1987 

 2.8 ... 2013, also 1962 ... coldest March of 20th century (t14 coldest with 1701,1729)

 2.7 ... t12th coldest March (1784, 1892)

 2.5 ... t10th coldest March (1747, 1770)

 2.3 ... 9th coldest March (1837)

 2.1 ... t7th coldest March (1786, 1789)

 2.0 ... t5th coldest March (1667, 1845)

 1.9 ... 4th coldest March (1883) 

 1.8 ... 3rd coldest March (1748)

 1.2 ... 2nd coldest March (1785)

 1.1 ... Mean of last ten days of March 2013 (22nd-31st)

 1.0 ... Coldest March (1674)

 0.7 ... Mean of the five days 23rd-27th March 2013

-3.7 ... daily record set on 1st (2018) also -2.3 2nd and -1.0 18th

-3.8 ... Coldest March daily mean since all-time low in 1845 (3rd, 1965)

-6.5 ... Coldest March daily mean (13th, 1845)

Enter your forecast by the end of Tuesday, 28 Feb to avoid time penalties, or by the end of Friday 3rd of March with time penalties but before the absolute deadline. 

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EWP forecast contest 

Predict the March England and Wales average rainfall in mm, verification is from Hadley EWP and all data in the following table are from the Hadley records which run from 1766 to 2022. 

The deadline information is the same as above, 0.3 points (of a possible 10.0) are deducted for each day late.

 

177.5 __ maximum 1766-2022 (1947)

160.4 __ maximum 1981-2022 (1981)

115.1 __ 2018 (max since 1981)

 95.1 __ 2016

 94.7 __ 2019

 80.6 __ 2017

 76.4 __ 2013

 71.5 __ mean 1981-2010

 65.4 __ mean 1991-2020

 63.6 __ mean 1993-2022

 61.2 __ mean 1766-2022

 57.9 __ 2020

 55.5 __ 2014

 51.4 __ 2015

 51.1 __ 2021

 49.7 __ 2022

 30.9 __ 2012

 22.3 __ minimum 1981-2021 (2011) (20th lowest 1766-2022) ... 1990 was 22.4

 05.6 __ minimum (1781)  

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You can enter both contests in the same post, and good luck. 

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Edited February 17 by Roger J Smith

[Summer18]

5.3C & 66mm 

Edited February 18 by Summer18

[Bobd29]

Hi 5.8C and 59.5mm for me please

[feb1991blizzard]

3.1c and 67mm please.

[chilly milly]

6.5c and 35mm please.

Thank you

[Catbrainz]

Im going to go for 6.8c and 28mm

[Shillitocettwo]

  This one will be quite a shock to the system. Within days the full impact of an SSW will hit with what will feel like a slightly less severe Beast than 2018. Frost, barely above zero temperatures and what will feel like Winter has arrived. The CET will actually still be running sub 3.C until the 24th where a more normal end will yield a 4.1.C overall. Exceptionally dry at 16mm.

[Typhoon John]

7.1c please

[Polar Gael]

4.0°C and 80.2mm for me please.

[Methuselah]

5.5C and 55mm please, Roger.

[Dancerwithwings]

5.9c & 44 mm cheers 👍

[Frigid]

There's a good chance March will be colder than the previous two months, something that hasn't happened since 2013

Going for 4.4C and 35mm. Thanks

[SteveB]

I'm going all in.... 1.3c and 22mm

[SteveB]

Already readjusting my predictions.

 

4.8c send 57mm please. 

[Earthshine]

7.4C and 50 mm please

[virtualsphere]

6.3C and 82mm please

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

2.3C and 68.8mm please 

[Rob 79812010]

On 20/02/2023 at 21:57, SteveB said:

I'm going all in.... 1.3c and 22mm

That would be wicked!

[syed2878]

For March temp wise I'm going for 7.3C and 85MM rain. I think it will be a warm and wet March. If the cold comes I will be over he moon for i do love extreme weather mainly cold and snow. I some how can't see it happening.

[DR(S)NO]

6.5c and 65mm

thank you please

[DiagonalRedLine]

CET guess of 5.5*C please and 60mm of rainfall (10% of that from snow). 

Chilly start and mostly dry. But then they’ll be a battle between the UK High and the Scandinavian trough which, if the latter wins, sleet and snow will swoop in on the UK blasting wintry forcefields apart. Despite how the SSW could continue to affect the Northern Hemisphere pattern, I have a feeling any snow will retreat past mid-month allowing warmer Spring weather to envelop the UK. Nevertheless, the snow will get its revenge on the warmer weather into late March. But the warm weather not going down without a fight. What a brawl it will be. 

[SummerShower]

5.3C and 67mm

There will be a fair amount of cold weather, but interspersed with milder (not necessarily warm) spells.

[The PIT]

7C and 30mm of rain.

Edited February 24 by The PIT

[moorlander]

6.8c and 23mm for me

[Metwatch]

7.4 and 37mm